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We are about 24 hours away from one of the best days of the year for sports fans! Toe meets leather in meaningful NFL action, with the Detroit Lions visiting the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night for the 2023 regular season kickoff! Here’s to another exciting and profitable NFL season!

Single Game NFL DFS Introduction

I’m sure many of those reading this are well-versed on the ins and outs of single-game NFL DFS, so feel free to skip past this whole segment. For those who may be unfamiliar, here is a brief rundown of how things will work on DraftKings and FanDuel.

In the DraftKings single game “Showdown Captain Mode” format, your “captain” selection will represent your most important player in any given lineup. This is because your chosen captain player will score 1.5x the normal amount of fantasy points. However, the trade-off is that their salary is also increased by a multiple of 1.5x.

On FanDuel, there is no increased salary adjustment for the “MVP” roster position. However, that player will still score 1.5x the normal amount of fantasy points. Due to single-game format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel, these “Primetime Preview” articles are more geared towards a DraftKings-focused approach for their “Showdown Captain Mode” contests. But FanDuel players should gain some helpful information and insights from these newsletters as well.

Many believe that to win an NFL showdown GPP, you simply have to luck your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate! Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport or slate format, you need a bit of good fortune. But research and sharp game theory truly make all the difference.

So, what are some strategies and determining factors that should affect your approach to NFL showdown lineup construction?

Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy

1a) Choosing the Right Captain

This one is quite obvious, but it is the most important aspect of single-game showdown lineup construction. The 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially in GPPs. Based on historical data from past DraftKings showdowns, about two-thirds of the time, a wide receiver or running back ends up being the optimal captain play. Quarterbacks are oftentimes the highest-owned captain selections in actual contests but end up being the optimal play around, or less than, 20% of the time. However, QBs who add value with their rushing ability are more viable as captain selections over QBs who are prototypical pocket passers. Behind WRs, RBs, and QBs, in terms of the most common optimal captain selections, are tight ends, defenses, and (on very rare occasions) kickers – in that order.

1b) Stacking Your Captain Selection Appropriately

This goes hand-in-hand with who you choose to roll with at captain. If you have a WR at captain, you almost always want to pair that player with their quarterback as one of your flex plays. If you’re choosing to roll with a QB at captain, you are generally predicting that more than one of his receivers is going to have a highly productive day, yet no single receiver will be outscoring the QB in fantasy points. With that in mind, with a QB at captain, it is most logical to stack two or even three of his pass catchers. Running backs often have a positive correlation with their team’s defense (likely having a lead and controlling the clock on the ground on offense = well-rested, better-performing defense) so you could choose to take that route. RBs who are capable receivers see their fair share of targets and are “stackable” with their QB as well.

2) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predicting game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you need to make your lineup(s) tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game, which may be forced into playing a pass-happy “catch-up mode” type of offense. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type of low-scoring affair, consider rostering one or both defenses (one perhaps even in your captain slot) while trying to find the skill position players who score the game’s one or two touchdowns.

If you believe one team, whether they’re the favorite or the underdog, has a chance to completely blow out the other, then consider constructing a 5-1 “smash” lineup build – meaning, roster five players on the dominating team and one player on the other team that could still manage to have a decent fantasy day. Most GPP-winning lineups will have either a 4-2 construction (four players on the winning team, two on the losing team) or a 3-3 construction (three players from both teams – when a game stays fairly close and is usually won by about 10 points or less).

3) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single-game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, RB1s, and occasionally a TE if there is a premiere guy at the position available like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising in recent weeks or somebody else who is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs.

Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to go above the field by rostering him in, for instance, 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you limit the potential upside and leverage within your lineups.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

It’s very common for top prizes in showdown GPPs to be split among many different contestants. Sometimes it is just unavoidable if the optimal lineup ends up being a commonly duplicated entry. But one of the better ways to ensure you have a unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more in some circumstances) on the table may not feel like a comfortable thing to do, yet is often the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back-test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous NFL showdown slates.

Now, with those single-game showdown tips and strategies covered, let’s get a look ahead at Thursday’s Chiefs vs. Lions match-up!

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-5) | 52.5 O/U

DET: 23.8 Implied Points | KC: 28.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: TE Travis Kelce - Questionable

Score Prediction: DET - 24, KC - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chiefs, 4-2 Lions, 5-1 Chiefs

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Patrick Mahomes: No surprise here. Mahomes averaged 26.2 DKFP/gm across 20 starts last season and will generally be one of the safest DFS investments on any given week. However, Mahomes’ upside may take a hit if his star TE Travis Kelce (knee/questionable) is unable to suit up. If Kelce sits, Mahomes’ appeal as a captain candidate drops a moderate amount and leads to him maybe being better-suited as a FLEX play. Mahomes’ captain salary of $18,300 will also leave you with a $6,340 average. salary for your five FLEX players. In a game with a lofty 52.5 over/under, there should be plenty of offense and scoring to go around, so you’ll want as many heavily involved (and more expensive) players in your lineups as possible.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: As many NFL WRs often do, Amon-Ra St. Brown took a massive step forward in his 2022 sophomore season where he commanded an elite 30.4% target share (ranked 8th in NFL) and earned 9.1 targets/gm. He’s a PPR machine that owns great rapport with QB Jared Goff. While St. Brown may not be utilized as a downfield threat very often, based on his shallow 6.3-yard aDOT (average depth of target), he does bring in the vast majority of his targets based on his 72.6% catch% from last season. The Chiefs surrendered the 7th most FPPG to WRs in 2022 and opposing offenses tend to lean pass-heavy while trying to keep up with Kansas City on the scoreboard.

WR Skyy Moore: Figuring out which Chiefs receiver(s), not named Travis Kelce, will have a real impact on a week-to-week basis is often a crapshoot. Regardless of Kelce’s status for this game, Skyy Moore does carry some appeal as a cheap captain option. After playing only around 27% of offensive snaps last season, Skyy Moore is expected to be an every-down player in 2023. Whether or not he emerges as the WR1 is to be determined, but any receiver who plays 100% (or close to it) snaps in a Mahomes-led offense can be a valuable DFS asset. Moore gets a sizable bump if Kelce sits out this game.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Jared Goff: In a possible shootout with the Lions needing to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs, rolling with Jared Goff will make plenty of sense. The Chiefs have not been incredibly stout on the defensive side for some time and they’ll head into week one without the services of star pass rusher Chris Jones, who is currently holding out over contract disputes. The Lions boast one of, if not THE, best offensive lines in the NFL, and Goff is surrounded by a solid group of playmakers. A 300+ yard game with 2+ touchdown passes is a very attainable outcome here for Goff in week one.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs: In this day and age, NFL teams do not invest a first-round pick in a running back unless that player will operate in a key offensive role right out of the gates. The Lions took Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and he’s the type of player that should be utilized in a variety of ways. Gibbs is a capable receiver out of the backfield and there’s buzz that he could even line up as a wide receiver in some formations. Targeting receiving RBs against the Chiefs has been a profitable strategy for years now and no other team in the NFL allowed more receptions to RBs (112) than Kansas City in 2022. There is some skepticism that the Lions will be hesitant to give Gibbs a full workload in his NFL debut but Gibbs has big play ability and doesn’t necessarily need 20+ touches to put up a big fantasy day.

RB Jerick McKinnon: Many NFL DFS players probably remember the touchdown frenzy that McKinnon put on at the end of last year’s regular season. Over KC’s final six regular season games, McKinnon racked up nine total TDs, eight of them of the receiving variety. McKinnon cooled off in the playoffs and counting on such a torrid touchdown pace is never something we can reliably fall back on. That being said, McKinnon does seem to be the most trusted receiving back in this offense and, once again, he could be someone else who benefits from Kelce sitting out, or being limited, with that knee injury -- especially when it comes to redzone involvement.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Harrison Butker/K Riley Patterson: Good kicking conditions in what should be a high-scoring game. Either kicker makes for a worthy value FLEX play to fill out lineups.

TE Noah Gray: IF Kelce is out, or limited, Noah Gray would operate as the Chiefs’ primary TE. Of course, we can’t hold Gray to the same lofty standards as Kelce, but a handful of targets with a decent shot at a touchdown makes him an enticing value option.

WR Kalif Raymond: This is very much a flier here as Raymond primarily works as a special teamer and should only be expected to play around 30-40% of offensive snaps. Still, he’s only $800 and brings big play ability with his 4.3 speed.

WR Justin Watson: Watson worked as a deep threat in this offense last season where he had a lengthy 18.7-yard aDOT. He’s also expected to play most snaps among KC’s WRs in week one, alongside Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He earned high praise from Mahomes and HC Andy Reid throughout the off-season and even caught a touchdown from Mahomes in his limited preseason action. It’s hard to go wrong with Watson, who is priced at the stone minimum of $200 on this showdown slate.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Jerick McKinnon

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Skyy Moore, WR Justin Watson: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack. Punting with Justin Watson also takes some of the sting away from Mahomes’ exorbitant $18,300 captain salary.

*WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, QB Jared Goff, RB Jerick McKinnon: St. Brown proved to be a high-ceiling PPR machine in 2022 and he should get off to a quick start in a high-scoring week one game. We can complete the stack by taking Goff in the FLEX and running it back with receiving back and redzone specialist Jerick McKinnon on the other side.

*WR Skyy Moore, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Jahmyr Gibbs: This specific stack sets up better if Kelce does indeed sit out this game, but the largely unproven Skyy Moore has immense upside if he emerges as the WR1 in this offense. With his affordable CPTN salary, we can easily jam in multiple studs like Mahomes and Gibbs as FLEX plays.

*QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta: Standard CPTN Goff double-stack. We know ARSB is the top receiving option in this offense. After that, things get a little muddled. TE Sam LaPorta was taken in the 2nd round of this year’s draft and, while it’s rare for rookie TEs to have a major impact out of the gates, LaPorta has already claimed the top spot on the depth chart and represents a big 6’3”, 245-pound redzone scoring target for Goff to throw to. It doesn’t hurt that Lions HC Dan Campbell was a former NFL tight end himself who had a big hand in selecting LaPorta with a premium draft 2023 pick.

4-2 Lions Stacks: Rolling with a Lions-heavy stack will be one way to differentiate lineups on this showdown slate. If Travis Kelce is out, the Chiefs could just end up spreading the ball around to a plethora of different players which lessens their chances of getting more than a couple of players in the optimal lineup. The Lions' rushing/receiving tree could be much less diverse and lead to a higher volume for fewer players.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for Thursday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jerick McKinnon MORE than 2.5 Receptions

Jarred Goff MORE than 1.5 Pass TDs

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!