Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top Pick’Em Offers 9/5/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100

• Underdog DFS - Up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash 

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

The time is nigh! Toe meets leather in meaningful NFL action tonight, with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs for the 2024 regular season kickoff! Here’s to another exciting and profitable NFL season!

Single Game NFL DFS Introduction

I’m sure many of those reading this are well-versed on the ins and outs of single-game NFL DFS, so feel free to skip past this whole segment. For those who may be unfamiliar, here is a brief rundown of how things will work on DraftKings and FanDuel.

In the DraftKings single game “Showdown Captain Mode” format, your “captain” selection will represent your most important player in any given lineup. This is because your chosen captain player will score 1.5x the normal amount of fantasy points. However, the trade-off is that their salary is also increased by a multiple of 1.5x. Your remaining five “FLEX” plays will have no salary or score multipliers.

On FanDuel, there is no increased salary adjustment for the “MVP” roster position. However, that player will still score 1.5x the normal amount of fantasy points. There are also only four “AnyFLEX” positions (no scoring multiplier) to go alongside your MVP. Due to single-game format discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel, these “Primetime Preview” articles are more geared towards a DraftKings-focused approach for their “Showdown Captain Mode” contests. But FanDuel players should gain some helpful information and insights from these newsletters as well.

Many believe that to win an NFL showdown GPP, you simply have to luck your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport or slate format, you need a bit of good fortune. But research and sharp game theory can truly make all the difference.

So, what are some strategies and determining factors that should affect your approach to NFL showdown lineup construction?

Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy

1a) Choosing the Right Captain

This one is quite obvious, but it is the most important aspect of single-game showdown lineup construction. The 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially in GPPs. Based on historical data from past DraftKings showdowns, about two-thirds of the time, a wide receiver or running back ends up being the optimal captain play. Quarterbacks are oftentimes the highest-owned captain selections in actual contests but end up being the optimal play around 20% of the time. However, QBs who add value with their rushing ability are more viable as captain selections over QBs who are prototypical pocket passers. Behind WRs, RBs, and QBs, in terms of the most common optimal captain selections, are tight ends, defenses, and (on very rare occasions) kickers – in that order.

Also, more often than not, you need the highest-scoring player from the game in your captain slot in order to win big, and not the best overall value, like many would assume. Exceptions can always be made, but this is generally how things shake out on these single-game slates.

1b) Stacking Your Captain Selection Appropriately

This goes hand-in-hand with who you choose to roll with at captain. If you have a WR at captain, you almost always want to pair that player with their quarterback as one of your flex plays. If you’re choosing to roll with a QB at captain, you are generally predicting that more than one of his receivers is going to have a highly productive day, yet no single receiver will be outscoring the QB in fantasy points. With that in mind, with a QB at captain, it is most logical to stack two or even three of his pass catchers. Running backs often have a positive correlation with their team’s defense (likely having a lead and controlling the clock on the ground on offense = well-rested, better-performing defense) so you could choose to take that route. RBs who are capable receivers see their fair share of targets and are “stackable” with their QB as well.

2) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predicting game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you need to make your lineup(s) tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game, which may be forced into playing a pass-happy “catch-up mode” type of offense. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type of low-scoring affair, consider rostering one or both defenses (one perhaps even in your captain slot) and maybe a kicker or two while trying to find the skill position players who score the game’s one or two touchdowns.

If you believe one team, whether they’re the favorite or the underdog, has a chance to completely blow out the other, then consider constructing a 5-1 “smash” lineup build – meaning, roster five players on the dominating team and one player on the other team that could still manage to have a decent fantasy day. Most GPP-winning lineups will have either a 4-2 construction (four players on the winning team, two on the losing team) or a 3-3 construction (three players from both teams – when a game stays fairly close and is usually won by one or two scores).

3) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two low-owned guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single-game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, RB1s, and occasionally a TE if there is a premiere guy at the position available like Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta. To find lower-owned players who have a chance to put up a ceiling performance, think outside the box. Perhaps you come across a player whose snap counts have been rising in recent weeks or somebody else who is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs.

Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to go above the field by rostering him in, for instance, 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure) or fading him entirely. If your player exposure is even to the field, you limit the potential upside and leverage within your lineups.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

It’s very common for top prizes in showdown GPPs to be split among many different contestants. Sometimes it is just unavoidable if the optimal lineup ends up being a commonly duplicated entry. But one of the better ways to ensure you have a unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more in some circumstances) on the table may not feel like a comfortable thing to do, yet is often the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back-test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous NFL showdown slates.

Now, with those single-game showdown tips and strategies covered, let’s get a look ahead at Thursday’s Chiefs vs. Ravens match-up!

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens | 46.5 O/U

KC: 24.8 Implied Points | BAL: 21.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Hollywood Brown - OUT, RB Clyde-Edwards Helaire - OUT, RB Keaton Mitchell - OUT, RB Owen Wright - OUT, RB Rasheen Ali - Doubtful

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 27, Ravens - 31

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Ravens, 4-2 Chiefs

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Lamar Jackson: A quarterback becomes a much more favorable CPTN selection when he has some wheels, and Jackson is of course one of the more dangerous rushing QBs in the NFL. Given the thin backfield depth for Baltimore to begin the season, with Derrick Henry and Justice Hill the only two healthy RBs on the gameday roster (a third RB could be elevated from the practice squad but may not see much/any action), a few more designed runs for Lamar Jackson could be in the cards. When it comes to passing the ball, Jackson will contend with a Chiefs defense that ranked 5th in pass DVOA in 2023, but it does help that he’ll have his top two receiving threats, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, healthy and ready to roll.

RB Derrick Henry: King Henry enters his age 30 season and expectations remain sky high as he could be stepping into the best position to succeed in his career as he joins a highly capable Ravens offense. Baltimore led the NFL in rush play% in 2023 (49.9%) and they have every reason to maintain their run-focused play style with one of the premiere RBs now lined up in their backfield. The Chiefs were also more beatable on the ground than through the air last season as they checked in at 27th in rush DVOA. 20+ touches, perhaps with a few targets included, is a very likely outcome for Henry in this big game to begin the season and he brings more multi-touchdown upside to the table than any other player in this game.

WR Rashee Rice: Since the exodus of Tyreek Hill at the end of the 2021 season, the Chiefs had been without a true WR1. That is until Rashee Rice emerged as a real threat a couple of months into his rookie season last year. Across his final 10 games in 2023, Rice averaged a hefty 8.9 targets/gm. As a rookie, Rice ran around half of his routes out of the slot and split the remaining ~50% of his routes fairly equally on both the left and right perimeters. So he is given a variety of looks in this crafty Andy Reid passing attack with a good mix of high-percentage routes from the slot and potential big play routes on the outside. There is also the “sophomore bump” to factor in. Historically, receivers find significantly more success in their second year as they become more familiar with the nuances of how things work at the NFL level. TE Travis Kelce will continue to be a key component of this passing attack but the fact that Hollywood Brown (shoulder/out) will be unable to suit up only increases Rice’s chances at a big game.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Patrick Mahomes: By his lofty standards, Mahomes had a fairly disappointing fantasy season in 2023 and he scored over 20 DKFP just three times over his final 13 games last year, including the playoffs. An improved defense alongside a solid run game featuring Isiah Pacheco were the primary culprits to Mahomes’ lower fantasy upside as the Chiefs found themselves in fewer shootouts last year. Nonetheless, he’s still the best QB in the game and will carry an excellent fantasy floor into any match-up. I’m down on him as a captain play simply because I don’t imagine we’ll see a ceiling game out of him versus this tough Ravens’ defense, but you can’t knock him as a go-to FLEX option.

RB Isiah Pacheco: Though he may lose some passing down work to the newly signed Samaje Perine, Isiah Pacheco figures to play on nearly 100% of the early downs and handle around 20 touches out of the backfield. Pacheco averaged a respectable 4.6 YPA in 2023 and ranked 12th in the NFL in yards before contact per attempt. He has one of the more unique running styles in the league and always has a knack for fighting after initial contact. If Perine does put a major hit on his receiving upside, Pacheco will probably need a touchdown to land in the optimal lineup, but his +110 anytime TD odds are the second-best in this game, behind King Henry.

WR Xavier Worthy: Worthy’s all-time NFL Combine 40-yard dash record of a blazing 4.21 seconds has plenty of folks high on the rookie out of Texas and for good reason. The last guy who had that kind of speed that played with Mahomes as his QB put up some pretty damn good stats and fantasy scores. But it is far too early to give Worthy any Tyreek Hill comparisons. That said, with Hollywood Brown sidelined and Travis Kelce at the ripe old (football) age of 34, Worthy will certainly provide this Chiefs offense with a unique skill set. Worthy and Mahomes showed some early chemistry in the preseason and the Chiefs also showed a willingness to utilize him as a weapon rushing the ball. Even if the target volume isn’t extraordinary, Worthy can pay off his salary one just one or two big plays.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Justin Tucker/K Harrison Butker: Two of the better (one being the best) kickers in the NFL are featured in this game and will make for quality FLEX fillers to round out lineups. You also have to factor in that these are two good offenses facing two good defenses so there may be plenty of drives that stall out in field goal range. I’m also not seeing any issues with the weather tonight as winds should stay around 5-10 mph.

RB Justice Hill: Due to depth issues, Derek Henry and Justice Hill may be the only two Ravens RBs who see any meaningful snaps tonight. Hill profiles as a better pass-catching back than Henry and, though they were on differing teams last year, that’s evidenced in the receiving results from 2023. Despite playing far fewer snaps than Henry did with the Titans, Hill caught 34-of-48 targets last year versus 28 receptions on 36 targets for Henry. Given DraftKings full PPR scoring, Hill could end up providing some nice value as a cheap FLEX option.

Ravens DST/Chiefs DST: I don’t LOVE either DST tonight but, again, these are two quality defensive teams and if this game turns into more of a 20-17 type of dogfight, one of these DSTs could pop in the optimal.

WR Nelson Agholor: Agholor should continue to operate as the Ravens’ primary slot receiver (73% slot% in 2023) which means higher percentage targets and a decent floor, for the price. The ceiling is limited for Agholor on this run-first offense but if he has a few catches and finds the endzone, he’s likely an optimal play when it’s all said and done.

WR Justin Watson: Naturally, the Chiefs have been in plenty of primetime games in recent years, and it’s always hard to get this guy right on these showdown slates, but Watson should be in on most three WR sets. Watson’s 17.5-yard aDOT was the second-highest on the team last year, behind the now-departed Marquez Valdes-Scantling (17.7-yard aDOT). So he’s likely going to get at least a couple of deep shots tonight.

TE Noah Gray: If last season was any indication, Gray will continue to play anywhere from 40% to 60% of snaps and he ultimately logged only 244 snaps fewer than Travis Kelce last year. Kelce is in no danger of losing significant work to Gray but he will spell the star tight end at times as well as be in on most two TE formations. Gray is generally good for two or three receptions per game with the off-chance of a random TD.

RB Carson Steele: If you’re putting more aggressive lineups together, Carson Steele is a min-priced $200 punt play that could pay off his nearly non-existent salary on the potential handful of touches he receives. Samaje Perine will get some passing down work, but he’s still very new with the team in a complicated system. Steele should operate as a more traditional backup RB to Pacheco but could bring in a reception or two as well.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

WR Rashee Rice

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews -or- WR Zay Flowers, WR Nelson Agholor: Standard CPTN Jackson double-stack. Given Jackson’s ability as a running QB, you don’t necessarily have to double-stack with him as your CPTN, but I would 100% pair TE Mark Andrews and/or WR Zay Flowers with him, but throwing WR Nelson Agholor in is also a pretty low-risk investment as an additional Ravens receiver and stack piece with CPTN Jackson. Other Ravens pass catchers to mix into CPTN Jackson lineups (in order of preference): WR Rashod Bateman, TE Isaiah Likely, WR Devontez Walker, WR Tylan Wallace. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $7,700 (w/ Andrews) or $7,166 (w/ Flowers).

*RB Derek Henry, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Rashee Rice: CPTN Henry will look to make a splash with his new team and he should get all goal-line work. Having a capable runner as your QB can often help the run game as the primary RB since the defense has to account for multiple running threats. If Baltimore controls this game with Henry on the ground, running it back with a Mahomes + Chiefs pass-catcher stack makes sense from a game script standpoint. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,166.

*WR Rashee Rice, QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Lamar Jackson: As discussed, Rice appears to be the clear WR1 heading into 2024 and he should take another step forward as a second-year player. There’s a good chance he sees upwards of 10 targets tonight. We’ll of course stack him with Mahomes in the FLEX and run it back with a premiere Ravens play with Lamar Jackson. This is a pricey stack, but a fairly safe one and there are ample value plays we can use to fill out the remaining three FLEX spots. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,600.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Rashee Rice, TE Travis Kelce: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack. If Mahomes ends up being the optimal captain, then he probably had a classic Mahomes ceiling game, so I wouldn’t be opposed to even triple-stacking a lineup where he is slotted in at captain, and rookie WR Xavier Worthy would be the obvious pick as that third receiver. Other Chiefs pass catchers to mix into CPTN Mahomes lineups (in order of preference): WR Justin Watson, TE Noah Gray, RB Samaje Perine, WR Mecole Hardman, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,733.

*RB Isiah Pacheco, QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews: Similar to the CPTN Henry stack, just flipping sides. In this stack scenario, the Chiefs control the game with the lead by running Pacheco non-stop, thus forcing Baltimore to stay aggressive when the ball is in their hands. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,533.

*WR Xavier Worthy, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Derrick Henry: By all indications, Worthy may not be a reliable fantasy scorer this year, but he’s almost certainly going to have some massive games sprinkled in. If one of those big games comes in week one, he could easily land as the optimal CPTN selection tonight. Stack with Mahomes and, given Worthy’s affordable salary, we can easily slot in Derrick Henry as a premium bring-back play and still have plenty of salary left over to fill out the rest of the lineup. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $7,300.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Derrick Henry MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Harrison Butker MORE than 1.5 FG Made

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!