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New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4) | 43 O/U

Jets: 19.5 implied points | 49ers: 23.5 implied points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey - Questionable, RB Elijah Mitchell - OUT/IR, WR Malik Taylor - OUT/IR, TE Kenny Yeboah - OUT/IR, WR Ricky Pearsall - OUT

Score Prediction: 49ers - 24, Jets - 21

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 49ers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Jets, 5-1 49ers

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Christian McCaffrey: This captain recommendation is catching exactly zero people off guard. However, CMC may not be heading into this week one match-up at 100%. He’s questionable (but will undoubtedly play) with calf/Achilles injuries. The calf ailment has been known, but the inclusion of “Achilles” in his injury report is more recent. The Jets also have a stacked defensive line that could very well be the best in the league. All of that being said, CMC will reportedly look to handle 15-20 touches tonight, which isn’t a far cry off from his 21.4 touches/gm from last season when he ended as the RB1 in 13-of-16 regular season games. The fact that All-World LT Trent Williams ended his contract holdout and will be available to play tonight is also a major plus for CMC. You could make a case that McCaffrey isn’t likely to post a ceiling performance tonight, but he could still come away as the highest-scoring fantasy player in the game which, in all likelihood, would place him as the optimal captain once it’s all said and done.

RB Breece Hall: CMC isn’t the only stud RB in this game. Breece Hall was off to an incredible start in his 2022 rookie season before tearing his ACL in his seventh NFL game. He returned last season and was as electric as ever, falling just six yards shy of a 1,000-yard rushing season while also leading all NFL RBs in receptions with 76 (one more than CMC). Things will look quite different for the Jets' offense in 2024 as they will receive competent QB play from Aaron Rodgers, something that was severely lacking on the Jets' offense in 2023. I do not doubt that Hall would have racked up 1,200+ yards on the ground last season if the Jets had simply found themselves in more RB-heavy run scripts, however, I’d be surprised if he catches 70+ balls again this season. Hall ranked 5th among NFL RBs in RYOE (rush yards over expected) last season and 7th in yards after contact per attempt. While his targets should take a dip with Rodgers back at QB, he is still going to see some receiving work while also finding himself in more favorable game scripts. The 49ers also weren’t incredibly successful against the run last season and the 90 receptions they allowed to RBs was tied for the fifth most in the NFL. Though San Francisco does still boast one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, Breece Hall is plenty talented enough to break off a huge performance tonight.

WR Garrett Wilson: Wilson saw 168 targets head his way last season, 4th most in the NFL behind only CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill. That is some elite company to be in. Unfortunately, Wilson only came down with 95 of those targets, resulting in a subpar 56.5% catch%. We know that Wilson is among the best receivers in the game and most of those uncaught targets were absolutely not his fault. His quality of targets will skyrocket now that Aaron Rodgers is back at the helm and, if you’ve watched any amount of NFL over the last 15 years, you’ll know that it pays to be Rodgers’ WR1.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Deebo Samuel Sr.: The Jets possess the best secondary in football, anchored by All-Pro Sauce Gardner, Michael Carter II, and DJ Reed. However, the Jets do not typically shadow with their corners and Samuel aligns all over the field as the 49ers simply look to get the ball in his hands and let him make a play. Once again, Samuel led all NFL WRs in yards after the catch per reception in 2023. He is the king of YAC. Reportedly, WR Brandon Aiyuk, who recently re-joined the team after missing most of August training camp/preseason due to a contract holdout, will not handle a full workload so Deebo Samuel’s target share should be very secure this evening.

QB Brock Purdy: Once again, it is a tough match-up against perhaps the NFL’s best all-around defense, but when you have CMC, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle at your disposal, you’re generally well-off as the quarterback. Brock Purdy’s 31 passing touchdowns were third-most among QBs last season, he led the NFL with 9.6 YPA and 13.6 YPC while completing 69.4% of his passes (3rd best). I find it hard to imagine that Purdy will pop off for a performance good enough to end up as the optimal captain, but his floor is pretty well solidified in that 15-20 DKFP range, making him a go-to FLEX play.

QB Aaron Rodgers: I don’t view Rodgers as a great fantasy QB this season, since his defense will dominate most weeks and limit the need to pass a ton. However, the Jets are four-point road ‘dogs to begin their season and Rodgers will need a strong game to keep pace with one of the most talented offenses in the NFL. The 49ers have allowed 26% more FPPG to QBs when at home (last nine games) and, much like Purdy, Rodgers feels like a strong bet to finish with 15-20 DKFP and land in as an optimal FLEX play.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

49ers DST/Jets DST: The total isn’t exactly high, at 43 points, for this primetime match-up, and if the final score ends up being something like 20-17, I doubt many would be surprised. Both defenses possess tons of talents and, thanks to the NFL’s new dynamic kickoff (which I’m a big fan of), the special teams are getting a better chance at returning touchdowns. The 49ers' DST is a bit pricey at $5,200 -- I have to wonder if the DK pricing algorithm is piggybacking off of DST success against the Jets from last season, without Aaron Rodgers. Meanwhile, the Jets DST which, as mentioned, is perhaps the best in the NFL, looks like a serious bargain at $3,200. My guess is the NYJ DST will be the most popular of the two, but either one makes for a worthy FLEX play.

K Jake Moody/K Greg Zuerlein: We could see plenty of FG opportunities as quality defenses on both sides could cause offensive drives to stall out within field goal range. As usual, kickers are well in play in these sorts of games. I don’t typically recommend playing both kickers in the same lineup, but if you do roll with one, I’d suggest picking the guy who correlates with your captain.

WR Jauan Jennings: Jennings’ role as the 49ers’ WR3 is pretty well solidified, and that was made apparent when San Fran signed him to a two-year contract worth up to $15.4 million -- not bad by WR3 standards. Jennings often gets overlooked on an offense that has Deebo, Aiyuk, CMC, and George Kittle, but he may secure at least a handful of targets with Aiyuk not handling a full complement of snaps tonight.

TE Tyler Conklin: Conklin doesn’t have much competition at tight end and, if last year was any indication, he should be on the field for around 70-80% of snaps tonight. Despite having a combination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Semien, and Tim Boyle throwing him the ball last year, Conklin would routinely crack the double-digit fantasy point threshold. His 87 targets ranked third on the team behind Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, and there is a very likely chance he’ll be the No. 3 or No. 4 receiving option with Rodgers under center.

RB Jordan Mason: CMC will still dominate the 49ers’ backfield touches, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’s going to have an extremely heavy workload in that 25+ touch range. With Elijah Mitchell on the IR with a hamstring injury and fourth-round rookie RB Isaac Guerendo only recently returning after missing most of training camp with hamstring/groin injuries, Mason’s status as the 49ers’ backup RB is pretty well cemented. His ceiling is probably around 10 touches and 50-ish yards, but if he luckboxes a TD, then he’ll likely end up as an optimal play. While I wouldn’t want to wish it into existence, the chance of CMC aggravating his calf/Achilles is also a possibility.

WR Xavier Gipson: Gipson is more of a speedy gadget-type receiver who will probably only see the field on some three WR sets but the Jets did show a willingness to manufacture him a few touches per game in the second half of last season. He’s also the Jets’ kickoff and punt returner, so if you want to make a unique aggressive build, you can “stack” him with the Jets DST in hopes of a kick/punt return TD, in which case both Gipson and the Jets DST would be credited with a TD -- the ever-elusive double dip.

WR Allen Lazard: Lazard had a forgettable 2023 season as he caught just 23 passes on 49 targets for 311 yards and a touchdown. But Lazard was a bit of a package deal as he came over from Green Bay with Rodgers. There is well-established rapport between Lazard and Rodgers, and the veteran receiver could end up with the third most offensive snaps among Jets WRs, behind Wilson and the newly acquired Mike Williams.

WR Chris Conley: Conley is the stone minimum $200 and could see some meaningful snaps tonight, especially if Aiyuk’s snap rate is limited more than expected. A couple of catches and a random TD would likely vault him into the optimal lineup. He could also put up a goose egg, so buyer beware here.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Garrett Wilson: This is a pretty generic stack that falls in line with what the Vegas line and script are us -- the 49ers will control this game by leaning on a “healthy enough” CMC, leading to Rodgers and the Jets needing to lean more pass-heavy. This stack won’t be cheap so you will have to nail your value FLEX plays while also being limited to likely one more stud play from this game. Average remaining player salary with this stack: $4,600.

*RB Breece Hall, QB Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel: Similar concept to the one above, just flipping the script. This stack also means you’ll probably be missing out on CMC, but that may end up being the right call if McCaffrey is limited and/or not as explosive as we’re used to seeing. Average remaining player salary with this stack: $5,300.

*WR Garrett Wilson, QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Christian McCaffrey: Garrett Wilson’s hopes of a sensational sophomore campaign disappeared at the same time that Aaron Rodgers snapped his Achilles in the first quarter of game one last year. He still put up a solid season, but not nearly as good as it could’ve been. Now that he has a quality veteran QB throwing him the ball, he has as good of a chance at putting up top-five WR numbers as anyone this year. We’ll, of course, stack Wilson with Rodgers and take the premium spend-up with CMC as the bring-back play. Average remaining player salary with this stack: $4,900.

*WR Deebo Samuel, QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall: Deebo doesn’t necessarily need 10+ targets to pop off for a massive 100+ yard game with multiple touchdowns, but his target floor is going to be more secure if Brandon Aiyuk’s snaps are truly going to be limited. He comes out of the gates facing the best secondary in football but all Purdy and the 49ers have to do is simply get the ball in his hands and let him create the yards after catch. And, we should expect Samuel to continue to handle a few carries/jet sweeps out of the backfield, just as he did last season. Stack with Purdy and splurge on the bring-back play with Breece Lightning. Average remaining player salary with this stack: $5,400.

*QB Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle: Standard CPTN Purdy double-stack. Other 49ers pass catchers to mix into CPTN Purdy lineups (in order of preference): WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Juaun Jennings, WR Chris Conley. Average remaining player salary with this stack: $6,400.

*QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Garrett Wilson, TE Tyler Conklin: Standard CPTN Rodgers double-stack. Other Jets pass catchers to mix into CPTN Rodgers lineups (in order of preference): WR Mike Williams, RB Breece Hall, WR Allen Lazard, WR Xavier Gipson, TE Jeremy Ruckert. Average remaining player salary with this stack: $7,700.

*WR Brandon Aiyuk, QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey: You may have noticed that Aiyuk wasn’t spotlighted in this showdown newsletter. Some of it has to do with the match-up but I’d be lying if I said the reported limited snap count didn’t scare me off. But, that’s also going to scare most of the field from using Aiyuk in lineups tonight, particularly at captain where I’d suspect he’ll be around 5% owned (in the captain slot). If you really want to get different, put him in at captain and see if he pops off with a ceiling game even if he doesn’t play his usual snaps. There’s also the possibility that there is a little Kyle Shanahan gamesmanship going on here and Aiyuk ends up playing his usual ~90% of snaps. Who knows. We’ll also stack him with Purdy and complete a “49ers onslaught” build with CMC. Average remaining player salary with this stack: $5,533.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyler Conklin MORE than 29.5 Receiving Yards

Juaun Jennings MORE than 19.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!