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Buffalo Bills (-1) at New York Jets | 40.5 O/U

Bills: 20.8 Implied Points | Jets: 19.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [BUF] RB James Cook - Questionable, [BUF] WR Khalil Shakir - Questionable, [NYJ] TE Tyler Conklin - Questionable

Score Prediction: Bills - 21, Jets - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Jets, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bills, 5-1 Jets

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Josh Allen: The results haven’t been pretty for Josh Allen lately, and the Jets’ defense has been brutal for opposing QBs -- NYJ is allowing the fewest FPPG to QBs. However, three of the five QBs the Jets have gone up against include Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Will Levis (Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold being the other two). It’s still Josh Allen, and he can always break a showdown slate no matter the match-up. If RB James Cooks (toe/questionable) is out or not playing at 100% (Cook currently has a SIC Score of 68), then Allen may be a bit more involved rushing the ball, which is really the part of his game that can open up his 30+ FP ceiling.

RB Breece Hall: I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that Breece Hall has handled 12 touches/gm the last two weeks, and the Jets have gone on to lose both games. To get back to winning ways, Hall should handle at least 20 touches tonight if you were to me as head coach of the Couch Potatoes. Plus, versatile RBs have been the players that have excelled against the Bills’ defense this season. Buffalo has allowed the 2nd most adjusted FPPG to RBs this season and THE most FPPG to RBs over their last four games. In the L4Games, Buffalo has allowed a 5.0 YPC average to RBs to go along with 7.5 receptions for 62.0 receiving YPG. While the touch volume hasn’t been there for Breece recently, he is still dominating the RB snaps and has logged no lower than a 69% snap% in a single game this season. Also, let’s not forget that (former) HC Robert Saleh was canned following their latest loss so there should be plenty of pressure on the current Jets coaching staff to get the ball into the hands of their best playmakers. Hall is probably my favorite captain play in this game.

WR Keon Coleman: This is a pretty contrarian captain play, but Coleman could serve as the Bills’ WR1 tonight. He has played the most WR snaps in 4-of-5 games this season -- the only outlier being a 47-10 blowout Bills win against the Jags in week three. The current Bills’ receiving leader, WR Khalil Shakir (ankle/questionable), is also iffy to play tonight and likely won’t be at 100% if he does suit up (Shakir: 70 SIC Score). Even if the target volume isn’t immense, Coleman has been used as a big play threat based on his 14.8-yard aDOT, and he was on the receiving end of QB Josh Allen’s lone passing TD last week -- an impressive 49-yard catch-and-run. However, Coleman hasn’t had more than five targets in a game thus far. But he is arguably the most talented WR on the Bills’ roster, so we may soon see an emphasis placed on getting him the ball, regardless of the difficult match-up (Jets: 6th fewest FPPG allowed to WRs).

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB James Cook: Assuming he plays, Cooks should continue to see plenty of touches even if he isn’t able to play his usual amount of snaps. He’s been the focal point of this Bills offense this season and it is easier to run on the Jets than to pass it. A 70% healthy James Cook is still one of the best skill position players in this game.

WR Garrett Wilson: It’s impossible to look past the whopping 22 targets that Garrett Wilson received against the Vikings across the pond last week. Obviously, that is going to be a major target outlier, and his final Wk5 receiving line of 13-101-1, while great for fantasy purposes, was still underwhelming given the absurd amount of targets. But Wilson has now seen at least 8 targets in 4-of-5 games and he’s clearly the top dog among Jets pass catchers. His 30.4% Target% is nearly double that of the next closest Jets receiver (Lazard: 18.5%). Wilson’s Target% also spikes to 37.5% in the redzone. The Bills' secondary has been outstanding, so the sledding won’t be easy for Wilson, but he’ll still have plenty of chances (targets) to make a major impact tonight.

QB Aaron Rodgers: The ceiling isn’t what it used to be for Aaron Rodgers but he’s still going to represent a solid floor play and his $9,000 DK salary is fairly generous by showdown QB pricing standards. The Bills also allow +32% more FPPG to QBs when on the road (last nine) so 15-20 FP would be an acceptable outcome in a potential low-scoring game.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Mike Williams: Williams has failed to solidify himself as the WR2 in this offense as his production has consistently fallen behind that of WR Allen Lazard. However, he is seeing a healthy 13.4-yard aDOT and has brought in 71.4% of his targets. Williams has profiled as a big play receiver in his career and he may be another guy that the post-Robert Selah Jets coaching staff may look to get more involved.

RB Ty Johnson / RB Ray Davis: If James Cook were to sit out tonight, both of these backup Bills RBs would clearly become stronger plays. However, one of these guys may be relevant even if Cook is available since he may not handle his usual complement of snaps. I’d give a slight lean to Ty Johnson as he has been more productive on his limited opportunities than Davis and is also a better receiver out of the backfield.

K Tyler Bass / K Greg Zuerlein: I’m viewing both kickers as just “okay” FLEX plays tonight. The 40.5 O/U in this game tells us we may see more FGs than TDs. However, winds may also be an issue for longer kicks -- they’re expected to be around 15 mph sustained with 25+ mph gusts -- so we may see both offenses elect to go for it on shorter fourth downs as opposed to settling for a riskier field goal.

Bills D/ST / Jets D/ST: Both defenses are solid in this match-up and I have a feeling that at least one will pop up in the optimal lineup when it’s all said and done. It seems like folks are higher on the Jets D/ST since they’re $1,000 cheaper but both are deserving of some exposure.

TE Tyler Conklin: Conklin (hip) is questionable to play tonight so monitor the inactives that will be released 90 minutes before kickoff. If he is in, he sets up as a decent value play based on the fact that his 23 targets and 15 receptions over the last three games rank 2nd on the team. Not an easy match-up (Bills: 7th in TE DVOA) but volume is volume.

WR Curtis Samuel: I won’t have much interest in Samuel if Shakir (ankle/questionable) is active, but he did play a season-high 56% snap% last week when Shakir was sidelined. The increase in snaps didn’t result in hardly any results in the box score, as Samuel caught just 1-of-4 targets for zero yards and rushed once for negative one yard. But he could bounce back with an impactful game if Shakir is forced to miss a second consecutive contest.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Keon Coleman, TE Dalton Kincaid: Standard CPTN Allen double-stack. There has been very little consistency out of this makeshift Bills receiver room this season so feel free to get creative with who you choose to stack with in CPTN Allen lineups. Other Bills pass catchers to consider in CPTN Allen lineups (in order of preference): WR Khalil Shakir (if active), RB James Cook (if active), WR Curtis Samuel (preferred if no Shakir), WR Mack Hollins, RB Ty Johnson (preferred if no Cook), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, TE Dawson Knox. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,166.

*RB Breece Hall, Jets D/ST, RB James Cook: As discussed, the Jets should emphasize getting the ball into the hands of their top offense weapons. After a quiet last two weeks, we’ll be looking for Hall to show up big tonight and, as mentioned in his spotlight, the Bills have struggled mightily against versatile RBs. Pair with Jets D/ST for some correlation and run it back with James Cook on the other side (again, assuming he’s active). Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,366.

*WR Keon Coleman, QB Josh Allen, WR Garrett Wilson: If this game turns into an unexpectedly high-scoring game, this stack could realistically be an optimal combination. Coleman hasn’t been putting up WR1 numbers, but the consistently-high snaps are indicating that he is the top WR in the Bills offense. Stack him with QB Josh Allen and, given Coleman’s affordable CPTN salary, we can still go big on a high-end bring-back play in WR Garrett Wilson. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,266.

*RB James Cook, Bills D/ST, RB Breece Hall: Same idea as the CPTN Hall concept, just flipping the script in favor of Cook and the Bills D/ST having the better overall performance. Of course, just make sure Cook is suiting up tonight. Otherwise, replace Cook with either Ty Johnson or Ray Davis. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,900.

*WR Garrett Wilson, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Keon Coleman: Similar concept as the CPTN Coleman stack, just flipping the favored passing offense side. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,400.

*QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Garrett Wilson, WR Allen Lazard: Standard CPTN Rodgers double-stack. Garrett Wilson should be a lock in any CPTN Rodgers stacks but you can leave the door open for several other players as the second (or third) receiving pieces to CPTN Rodgers lineups. Other Jets pass catchers to mix into CPTN Rodgers lineups (in order of preference): WR Mike Williams, TE Tyler Conklin (if active), RB Breece Hall, RB Braelon Allen, TE Jeremy Ruckert (bump ahead of Breece Hall if Conklin is out), WR Xavier Gipson. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,433.

MNF Touchdown Calls Contest

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PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video attached at the top of this newsletter!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!