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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) | 45.5 O/U

Falcons: 20.0 Implied Points | Eagles: 25.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR AJ Brown - OUT, WR Johnny Wilson - Questionable

Score Prediction: Falcons - 17, Eagles, 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Eagles, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Falcons, 5-1 Eagles, 5-1 Falcons

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Saquon Barkley: Who knew putting Saquon Barkley behind an elite O-Line on a capable offense would have resulted in good things?! Barkley had a stellar Eagles debut down in Sao Paulo, Brazil, when he took 26 touches for 132 yards and three total TDs (two rushing, one receiving). Barkley logged 61 snaps (80% snap%) so he ultimately touched the ball on nearly half of the plays the Eagles ran with him on the field. Now, inevitably, QB Jalen Hurts is going to punch in some rushing TDs of his own, but it’s also worth noting that the “tush push” play looked noticeably less effective in the post-Jason Kelce era. Either way, Barkley is in line for true workhorse volume and could be a secondary beneficiary from the fact that star WR AJ Brown (hamstring/out) is sidelined in week two.

RB Bijan Robinson: The offseason buzz around Bijan taking on a larger role under this new Falcons coaching staff did not seem to be an exaggeration in week one. Robinson logged an elite 89% snap% and handled a total of 23 touches -- 18 rushes and he caught all five of his targets. By my count, Robinson matched or exceeded 23 touches in just two games in his 2023 rookie season. Robinson averaged only 1.0 yards before contact per attempt in week one, which ranked 46th among week one ball carriers. However, Robinson averaged an NFL-best 2.8 yards after contact per attempt. The Steelers, Atlanta’s week one opponent, also stacked the box on 38.9% of plays, so the low YBC/att makes sense. The Eagles' defense wasn’t nearly as aggressive against the Packers in week one as they stacked the box just 18.75% of the time against Josh Jacobs. So Robinson should have a bit more breathing room tonight and this Falcons O-Line is considered to be a top-10 unit. Robinson is also a rare game script independent RB, meaning, even if the Falcons fall behind in this game, as the Vegas spread would suggest, he’ll still be out on the field and simply receive more targets in place of carries. It’s also worth noting, that even though it is a minuscule one-game sample size, the Eagles came out of week one ranking dead last in rush DVOA.

WR DeVonta Smith: Smith is already among the best WR2s in the NFL, and there is no doubt he could serve as the alpha receiver on many NFL offenses. With AJ Brown (hamstring/out) watching this game on the sidelines tonight, Smith will be the first read on a large chunk of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks. That also means he’ll draw more defensive attention, so there is some give-and-take as a result of Brown’s week two absence. That said, Smith should largely avoid coverage from Falcons top CB AJ Terrell since the Eagles prefer to use Smith out of the slot (74% slot% Wk1) and Terrell does not typically cover the slot.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Jalen Hurts: When it comes to single-game lineup construction, rostering a QB as your captain is less optimal than what the ultimate captain ownership numbers would suggest. Meaning, QBs are over-rostered by the field as captains in these single-game contests compared to how often they pop up as the optimal captain play, which is only around 20% of the time. Exceptions are generally made for QBs who offer rushing yardage and rushing TD upside. Hurts certainly qualifies there and he has punched in 38 rushing TDs over the previous three seasons. But he also never had a Saquon Barkley in the backfield before this year. Hurts remains a high-floor option but, without WR AJ Brown at his disposal tonight and Barkley’s potential to steal some of those valuable rushing TDs away from him, he makes much more sense as a high-floor FLEX play tonight.

WR Drake London: I’m curious if folks will be hesitant to roster London tonight after a disappointing season debut (3-2-15-0 target/receiving line). London was often shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. in week one, who is among the top young corners in the league. It was also an inefficient day for new Falcons QB Kirk Cousins, who completed just 16 passes for 155 yards and threw two INTs in week one. That said, London was on the field for 100% of snaps and he should find more success against an Eagles’ secondary that gave up 201 yards and two TDs to Packers WRs in week one.

TE Kyle Pitts: Like RB Bijan Robinson, the super-talented Kyle Pitts’ usage is expected to take a sizable leap forward this season. He only caught 3-of-3 targets for 26 yards last week which, once again, was in a game where QB Kirk Cousins struggled. But Pitts was the recipient of Cousins’ lone TD pass on the day. Pitts rarely came off the field (96% snap%) and his 27 routes ran were tied with WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney for the team lead. He’s not going to be tasked with blocking on Kirk Cousins dropbacks very often. Cousins should have a better showing in week two and the Falcons’ game script could switch to “pass-happy” if they fall behind on the scoreboard early.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Dallas Goedert: Goedert is in the “boring tight end” stage of his career but his floor and ceiling only climb with WR AJ Brown’s absence in this game. He is a reliable pass catcher who has plenty of chemistry with QB Jalen Hurts and he logged an 82% snap% in week one, which may bump up closer to 90% tonight. The Falcons also ranked 22nd in TE DVOA last week.

WR Darnell Mooney: Mooney’s $5,400 DK showdown salary is a little rich, but that will scare folks off of him. I don’t believe he is a particularly good NFL receiver but he logged a 95% snap% in week one and, as mentioned earlier, his 27 routes ran tied with London and Pitts for a team lead. He may also benefit from drawing the least defensive attention of the primary Falcons pass catchers.

K Younghoe Koo/K Jake Elliott: I don’t imagine kickers will be as strong of options this evening as we saw in last night’s SNF game between the Bears and Texans (both kickers ended up in the perfect lineup). That said, kickers often ‘pop’ as optimal plays on these showdown slates more often than people realize and they generally go under-owned. I probably wouldn’t roster both kickers in the same lineup but, if you do roll with one, it’s best to correlate them with whoever you have at captain (e.g. CPTN Saquon Barkley, go with Jake Elliott -- CPTN Bijan Robinson, go with Younghoe Koo).

Eagles D/ST: If Kirk Cousins is as ineffective as he was last week, we could see this Eagles D/ST come away would a double-digit fantasy score and a possible optimal play. They are at home for the first time this season and were aggressive last week, blitzing on 27% of QB dropbacks (2nd highest in NFL) and applying pressure on 21.6% of QB dropbacks (7th highest in NFL).

WR Jahan Dotson: Elevated to the Eagles’ de facto WR2. Dotson only played 42% of snaps last week but that should skyrocket closer to 90+% tonight with AJ Brown out of the picture. Dotson was traded to the Eagles fairly late into the off-season, so having another full week to practice with the team and learn the playbook should only help.

WR Ray-Ray McCloud III: Surprisingly, McCould’s seven targets were a team-high in week one and were more than London and Pitts’ target total combined (six). That is obviously not going to be the case often, likely not ever again this season, but McCloud does seem likely to see a handful of targets on a regular basis in the Falcons’ WR3 role.

WR Britain Covey: Covey becomes a decent dart throw if WR Johnny Wilson (hamstring/questionable) is ruled out. He would potentially elevate to the WR3 role and could play around half of the offensive snaps.

WR Johnny Wilson: On the flip side, if Wilson is active tonight, he’s preferred over the aforementioned Britain Covey. Wilson is a big target at 6-foot-6, 231 lbs, and has good speed for his size (4.53 40-yard dash). He could put up a goose egg even if he suits up but it would also only take a big play or two for him to return value.

WR Parris Campbell: Campbell was recently elevated from the practice squad and would make for a viable min-priced punt play if Johnny Wilson is out. Britain Covey would likely play more snaps in the WR3 role, but Campbell could also get in for some meaningful snaps.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Saquon Barkley, K Jake Elliott, RB Bijan Robinson: We’ve got two stud RBs in this showdown and Saquon + Bijan could combine for 50+ touches tonight. It’s slightly unconventional to roster both lead RBs in the same lineup but it could easily be an optimal approach with two studs of this caliber. It won’t be cheap, so we’ll add some Eagles offensive correlation by rolling with K Jake Elliott in the FLEX. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $6,300.

*RB Bijan Robinson, QB Jalen Hurts, TE Dallas Goedert: There was not much to love about how the Falcons looked in week one, but the Bijan usage was exciting to see from a DFS standpoint. He’s a big-time playmaker and is now finally poised to handle the sort of volume that big-time playmakers should command. We’ll run CPTN Bijan back with QB Jalen Hurts on the other side and stack him with TE Dallas Goedert, who should see some additional target volume tonight. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $6,200.

*WR DeVonta Smith, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Ray-Ray McCloud III: Since WR AJ Brown wasn’t ruled out for MNF until yesterday after DFS salaries were already cemented for this game, DeVonta Smith is not priced appropriately as the Eagles’ WR1. He’ll be a popular captain play but he could legitimately see 10-15 targets tonight as Hurts’ most-trusted receiving threat. Smith has put up huge games on much lower target volume than that in the past. We’ll, of course, stack him with QB Jalen Hurts and take a value option as the bring-back play in WR Ray-Ray McCloud III. This will leave enough salary left over to easily put in a couple more stud plays from this game. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $7,933.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jahan Dotson (fade RB Saquon Barkley): Standard CPTN Hurts double-stack. If Hurts ends up as the optimal captain, he probably punches in a goal-line rushing TD or two, so it would make sense to fade Saquon in any CPTN Hurts lineup since they negatively correlate. DeVonta Smith should probably be locked into all CPTN Hurts lineups but you can be flexible with the second Eagles receiver… if you’re committed to the double-stack. Other Eagles pass catchers to mix into CPTN Hurts lineups (in order of preference): TE Dallas Goedert, WR Johnny Wilson (if active), WR Britain Covey (preferred if Wilson is out), WR Parris Campbell (only if Wilson is out). Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $7,400.

*WR Drake London, QB Kirk Cousins, RB Saquon Barkley: Week one was a dud but, with Kirk Cousins in as the new Falcons QB, London will have some massive single-game performances in the future. This match-up with the Eagles sets up as much better than the Steelers' secondary in week one, so we may see one of those big games come to fruition tonight. Stack CPTN London with Cousins in the FLEX and run it back with a premium spend-up in Saquon. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $6,233.

*TE Kyle Pitts, QB Kirk Cousins, WR DeVonta Smith: A touchdown spared what would have been an otherwise quiet week one for Pitts, but the same logic applies to him as it does to Drake London. Pitts is going to run a route on, or close to, 100% of Cousins’ dropbacks, and his unique size and athleticism make him a serious mismatch on slower linebacks and smaller corners. Average salary remaining per player with this stack: $7,333.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kyle Pitts MORE than 3.5 Receptions

DeVonta Smith MORE than 74.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!