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New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) | 43.0 O/U

Saints: 18.8 Implied Points | Chiefs: 24.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [KC] WR Rashee Rice - OUT/IR, [NO] TE Taysom Hill - OUT, [KC] RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire - OUT, [KC] WR Mecole Hardman - Questionable, [KC] RB Isiah Pacheco - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 23, Saints - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chiefs, 4-2 Saints, 5-1 Chiefs

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been the top overall fantasy RB on a per-game basis this season, but this will easily set up as his toughest match-up to date. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs and check in at 3rd in rush DVOA. But, as always, volume reigns supreme in NFL DFS, and Kamara has received no fewer than 20 touches in a single game this season and has tallied at least 110 scrimmage yards in all four contests. The Saints won their first two games in blowout fashion, which likely played a factor in Kamara handling fairly modest 52% (Wk1) and 63% (Wk2) snap rates. However, in closer games where the Saints generally played from behind, Kamara was in on 86% (Wk3) and 82% (Wk4) of offensive snaps. Finally, with TE/RB/QB and notorious goal line gadget guy, Taysom Hill (ribs), ruled out for this game, there is a much better chance that Kamara will handle most/all of the goal line work. So, tough match-up be damned. Kamara has as much optimal captain and multi-touchdown upside as any player in this game.

WR Chris Olave: Olave was out-shined by Rashid Shaheed over the first couple of weeks, but he remains the top WR in this offense and has secured at least 81 receiving yards in three consecutive games. Olave has posted an excellent 83.3% Catch% on his 24 targets, including a 100% Catch% on all of his “catchable targets”. There is a strong chance that the Saints (+5.5) will be playing from behind in this game, or at least in a neutral game script, which means QB Derek Carr may need to air it out more than he has for much of this season. Week four (36 pass attempts) was the first time Carr attempted more than 25 passes this season, and Olave ended up seeing 10 targets. So, double-digit targets may be on the table once again tonight.

TE Travis Kelce: The biggest injury impact in this game resides in the absence of standout WR Rashee Rice (knee). The severity of Rice’s injury is still unclear, but it certainly didn’t look great on the field and it’s serious enough to have landed him on the IR. Rice played just four snaps (6% snap%) in week four before Mahomes took him out via friendly fire with a [boneheaded] low hit on an INT return. As a result, for the first time this season, Travis Kelce went on to lead the team in routes run (32), targets (9), receptions (7), and receiving yards (89). Kelce may be out of his prime but we have plenty of data that supports the star tight end’s ability to operate as the team’s top receiving option, even if he’s likely going to draw more defensive attention. The Saints have not been particularly stout against TEs, ranking 19th in TE DVOA. And, if you recall back in week three when the Eagles were down their top two receivers (AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith), the Saints allowed TE Dallas Goedert to post a career day, catching 10-of-11 targets for 170 yards.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Patrick Mahomes: Dating back to week eight of last season, Mahomes has put up more than 22 fantasy points just once out of 17 games. This season, he is averaging a modest 226.0 YPG on 30.3 att/gm and 15.6 FPPG. So it has been a while since we’ve seen consistent upside out of him, and losing Rashee Rice for the foreseeable future certainly doesn’t help his case. Nonetheless, it’s still Patrick Mahomes, and he’s going to set up as the safest floor play in this game. His $11,000 price tag isn’t cheap so we’ll feel much better about targeting him as a FLEX play instead of a go-to captain option. Opposing teams have passed at the fourth-highest rate (66.1% PassPlay%) against the Saints this season so, even without Rashee Rice available, perhaps Mahomes will be airing it out plenty this evening.

WR Xavier Worthy: Worthy takes over as the de facto WR1 in the wake of the Rice injury. He has not seen more than four targets in a game this season, including last week which was almost entirely played without Rice on the field. But his elite speed makes him a big play threat who isn’t necessarily reliant on huge target volume. He is also averaging an impressive 9.0 YAC/reception, which currently ranks 4th in the NFL. The Saints do rank 1st in WR1 DVOA, and teams now have a pretty good idea of how the Chiefs like to use Worthy in games, but it never hurts to be the top WR in a Patrick Mahomes-led passing attack.

RB Kareem Hunt: The Chiefs’ backfield remains a bit crowded, but in his first game as a member of the Chiefs’ active roster, Kareem Hunt led all KC RBs with 16 touches and a 45% snap%. He turned those 16 touches into 85 scrimmage yards, resulting in an efficient 5.3 yards/touch. After losing his second fumble of the season, Carson Steele (who was the starting RB in Wk3) may still be in Andy Reid’s doghouse. Samaje Perine got the goal line TD last week and played a 40% snap%, but he also handled just five carries for 14 yards (2.8 YPC) with zero targets. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (personal) remains out, so that is one less RB to worry about. So, odds are, after another full week to get up to speed, Hunt should lead the Chiefs’ backfield in touches again this week. He admitted that he wasn’t playing at 100% for much of last season as a member of the Browns but the 29-year-old passed the eye test last week. The Chiefs’ O-Line also ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards, so Hunt has a quality run-blocking unit ahead of him. Hunt’s +130 anytime touchdown odds are also the second-best in the game behind Alvin Kamara (-110 ATTD).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Harrison Butker / K Blake Grupe: No wind/weather concerns in KC tonight and a 43-point over/under tells us that we’ll likely see more FGs than touchdowns. Both kickers in this game have connected on a couple of 50+ yarders this season. Butker’s only FG miss was on a 65-yarder in the waning seconds of the first half last week and he’ll generally be the preferred option if you’re targeting a kicker tonight. Grupe has made 100% of his FG attempts but may not set up quite as well as Butker if the Saints are playing from behind for much/all of this game. Still, he’s a quality kicker and a decent leverage FLEX play who shouldn’t be overly popular in this game.

Chiefs D/ST: The Chiefs’ D/ST hasn’t put up big fantasy scores this season but they’re a solid all-around group that will receive the primetime home game bump. While they have just eight sacks on the season, the Chiefs lead the NFL in pressure rate (30.3%) and are second in blitz% (33.6%) so they’re an aggressive bunch that could force more sacks and turnovers than they’ve posted up to this point. I like their odds of a double-digit fantasy score tonight.

WR Justin Watson: Presumably, Watson will take over the WR2 role after ranking 2nd among Chiefs’ WRs last week in snap% (69%) and routes run (23). He has hauled in 100% of his catchable targets this season and, while he has largely been a downfield threat during his time in the NFL, the Chiefs may need him to contribute on more intermediate routes where targets result in a higher percentage catch rate.

RB Jamaal Williams: The floor is very low for Williams, who may only see a handful of touches, but he has a better chance of vulturing a short-yardage TD with Taysom Hill out this week.

TE Noah Gray: The Chiefs may look to run more two tight end sets following the Rashee Rice injury. Rice was extremely efficient with a 3.5 YPRR (yards per route run) this season, but Gray has ranked second on the team with a 1.8 YPRR. Even if KC doesn’t change their offensive approach much, Gray has played at least 50% of the snaps in every game this season and is generally good for a couple of catches with a decent chance at a luckbox TD.

TE Juwan Johnson: Without Taysom Hill, the Saints have two traditional TEs at their disposal between Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. Johnson has seen his snap% increase in each game this season, going from 35% (Wk1), 41% (Wk2), 50% (Wk3), and 68% (Wk4). Based on route data, Johnson would seemingly be the preferred pass-catching TE -- he ran 29 routes last week compared to just 10 routes for Moreau. The Chiefs have been very weak against TEs this season, allowing 91.3 YPG, 7.5 rec/gm, and the most FPPG to the position.

WR Mason Tipton: He’s a pure dart throw who could post a goose egg but Tipton did play a season-high 39% snap% last week and ran a route on 24 of his 29 snaps. He has run the largest percentage of his routes out of the slot, which is where the Chiefs’ secondary has been most forgiving (7th most FPPG allowed to slot WRs).

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Alvin Kamara, K Blake Grupe, TE Travis Kelce: Kamara is locked into workhorse volume and will see touches, whether they be carries or receptions, regardless of game script. RBs and kickers possess some decent correlation, so we’ll pair Kamara with Grupe and run it back with the presumed top Chiefs’ receiving target on the other side with Travis Kelce. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,433.

*WR Chris Olave, QB Derek Carr, RB Kareem Hunt: As discussed in his spotlight, Olave is a strong candidate for double-digit targets tonight and the Chiefs have been softer versus the pass than the run. Derek Carr was not spotlighted in today’s newsletter but we’ll keep the correlation going by stacking him in the FLEX and utilizing Hunt as the bring-back play. In this stack, we’re counting on the Chiefs leading for much of the game, boosting Hunt’s volume, while forcing a more pass-happy script for the Saints on the other side. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,000.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Juwan Johnson: It’s not exactly a secret that Kelce should be Mahomes’ top target for the time being. Pairing Kelce and Mahomes together should be one of the safer correlating stacks you can make in this game. It won’t be cheap, however, so we’ll roll with the DvP play with TE Juwan Johnson on the other side. As mentioned, the Chiefs have allowed the most FPPG to TEs this season and Johnson’s role seems to be trending upward, even if the numbers have shown it in the recent box scores. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,966.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Xavier Worthy: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack featuring his top two (healthy) receivers. Mahomes’ fantasy stock has been down dating back to the middle of last season, and losing Rashee Rice doesn’t help, but everyone else is aware of this, so perhaps he goes a bit under-owned as a captain play and ends up passing for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Other KC pass catchers to mix into CPTN Mahomes lineup (in order of preference): WR Justin Watson, TE Noah Gray, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, RB Kareem Hunt, RB Samaje Perine, WR Mecole Hardman (questionable), WR Skyy Moore. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,300.

*WR Xavier Worthy, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Rashid Shaheed: If it’s a night for big plays, Worthy and Shaheed may end up in the optimal lineup as both guys have the speed and ability to rip off long TD receptions. It’d also be a surprise if Worthy doesn’t hit a season-high in targets tonight after seeing no more than four targets in a game thus far. Shaheed has also caught 100% of the 15 catchable targets sent his way and owns a massive 50.6% AirYard% in the Saints offense. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,833.

*RB Kareem Hunt, Chiefs D/ST, RB Alvin Kamara: Hunt looked like he still had plenty of gas left in the tank last week and he may only further cement himself as the RB1 after having another week to get up to speed and renew his knowledge of the tricky Andy Reid system. RBs and their team’s D/ST tend to correlate well and, for the bring-back play, we can easily afford to get up to Alvin Kamara who could have an optimal-lineup-worthy game even if the Chiefs’ defense mostly stifles the Saints’ offense. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,833.

MNF Touchdown Calls Contest

Retweet the TD calls below for your chance to win a free month of a LineStar premium subscription!

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Harrison Butker MORE than 8.5 Fantasy Score

Chris Olave MORE than 60.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!