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San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Minnesota Vikings | 44 O/U

SF: 25.5 Implied Points | MIN: 18.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey - Questionable (expected to play), WR Deebo Samuel - OUT, WR Justin Jefferson - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: SF - 24, MIN - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 49ers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Vikings, 5-1 49ers (light GPP sprinkle)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Christian McCaffrey: There was some concern surrounding CMC’s week seven availability due to an oblique injury sustained in week six, but he’s fully expected to suit up in tonight’s primetime match-up. He didn’t practice all week up until Saturday when he logged a limited session, and the extra day to rest and recover likely helped. Fortunately, he’s not dealing with a lower-body injury so we should head into this game expecting a usual heavy dose of CMC, but even if he’s ~75%, he’s worthy of some captain shares. McCaffrey will look to extend his current 15-game touchdown streak and, through six games this season, he is averaging 22.1 touches/gm for 121.7 total YPG with nine scores. The Vikings' defense has held RBs to the 6th lowest FPPG this season, but their 17th rush DVOA ranking suggests some regression is due. And, most recently, they allowed a ragtag group of Chicago Bears rushers to rack up 162 yards on the ground. CMC could also be expected to handle additional pass-catching duties with WR Deebo Samuel sidelined tonight.

WR Brandon Aiyuk: In his five healthy games this season, Aiyuk has commanded an elite 31.9% target% and a gargantuan 54.2% air yard%. Aiyuk’s target volume will be further cemented with the absence of Deebo Samuel (shoulder/out), and he draws a terrific match-up against the Vikings defense that has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs. Aiyuk also runs roughly half of his routes on the left perimeter, so he should routinely draw the most favorable WR/CB match-up against Akayleb Evans, who covers that side of the field on 92% of plays. But, realistically, there are no truly bad match-ups for Aiyuk against anyone in this Vikings secondary. He is priced up at $10,800 (CPTN: $16,200) but is a clear-cut choice for the 1.5x captain play.

TE George Kittle: Kittle’s target share has been unpredictable this season, but he has a knack for showing up big in primetime games. In 21 career primetime games, Kittle has averaged 73.1 YPG, caught 79.2% of his targets, and has reeled in 18 touchdowns. There’s just something about Kittle under the lights, and the last time the 49ers were in primetime, Kittle put up a three-touchdown performance on a great Cowboys defense. The Vikings have allowed the 10th most FPPG to TEs over the last four weeks and have surrendered 18.0 DKFP/gm to TEs when playing at home this season. Kittle also fills the void left behind by Deebo Samuel perhaps better than any other 49ers receiver. Samuel does his damage in shorter/intermediate routes, which is where Kittle shines as well. Both guys have similar aDOTs (average depth of target) -- Kittle: 7.7-yard aDOT, Samue: 7.1-yard aDOT. Also, we’ve got a fun narrative to ride. Kittle popularized “National Tight End Day” in 2018, and falls on the fourth Sunday of October. Kittle didn’t get to play on NTED yesterday, but he’ll have a chance to celebrate National Tight End WEEK with a big game tonight. He’s a riskier, but more affordable, captain target this evening.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Brock Purdy: Prior to last week, Purdy was riding a three-game streak of scoring at least 21.32 DKFP, and he notched at least 14.74 DKFP over the first five games of the season. He’s not the flashiest or most talented QB in the league, but through six games, Purdy ranks 1st among NFL QBs in quarterback rating (111.9), 1st in adjusted yards per attempt (9.5), 3rd in yards per completion (12.7), and 3rd in touchdown% (6.1%). The Vikings are allowing the 2nd highest completion rate to QBs (75.1%) and the 10th most FPPG. He’ll certainly profile as a strong FLEX play and (somewhat) contrarian captain option.

WR Jordan Addison: Finally, we get to our first Vikings player spotlight. In the first full game without superstar WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring/IR) available, rookie Jordan Addison logged a season-high 86% snap% in week six. It wasn’t a huge day (5-3-28-1 receiving line), but it was a game where QB Kirk Cousins mustered just 181 yards through the air and Addison was on the receiving end of Cousins’ lone touchdown pass. I’d be shocked if Addison sees such low target volume again, especially in a game where the Vikings will likely be playing either from behind or in a neutral game script. It’s not an easy match-up against the 49ers, who rank 3rd in pass DVOA, but Addison does run nearly 80% of his routes on the perimeter, where San Francisco is most vulnerable (16th most FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs). If I had to place money on one Vikings player to hit the optimal lineup tonight, it’d be Addison.

RB Alexander Mattison: Brutal match-up against the 49ers who rank 4th in rush DVOA and have allowed just 58.0 YPG to RBs this season, but Mattison is logging a hefty 71% snap% on the year while averaging 16.7 touches/gm. He’s also priced down to a point where rostering him is more palatable. Where Mattison really stands out is in the redzone, where he owns an excellent 78.6% team rush% and 20.0% RZ target%. Mattison has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season (his two TDs have been receiving) but, with such a high redzone rushing share, it’s only a matter of time before he trudges his way into the endzone. It’s also worth noting that the 49ers have allowed 49% more FPPG to RBs when playing on the road (last nine games). Mattison has at least six targets in three of the last five games as well and the 49ers are allowing 5.8 receptions/gm to RBs, so he’ll get a nice floor boost in DraftKings’ full PPR scoring format.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

RB Elijah Mitchell: With CMC playing, both Mitchell and Jordan Mason are tough options to trust, and they’re not exactly cheap given their expected backup roles. But, if you want to get contrarian, Mitchell should serve as CMC’s backup now that he’s two weeks removed from his knee injury and would be the first man up (albeit, likely in a timeshare w/ Mason) should McCaffrey re-aggravate his oblique injury.

K Jake Moody / K Greg Joseph: Decent double-digit FP potential from both kickers tonight in this domed match-up. Both offenses should have moderate-to-strong success moving the ball but could struggle to punch in touchdowns with each team having key skill position players who are either out or a little banged up.

49ers D/ST: The 49ers have been a better real-life defense than a fantasy defense but they’ll have some upside against a Justin Jefferson-less Vikings offense. Opposing D/STs are averaging 12.2 FPPG against Minnesota this season.

WR Brandon Powell: Powell moved up to the WR3 role once Jefferson went down in week five and he has caught 7-of-10 targets in the last two games. He played on a season-high 60% of snaps last week and profiles as one of the most favorable punt plays in this game.

WR Ray-Ray McCloud III: Many would assume that WR Jauan Jennings would be the primary depth benefactor from the Deebo Samuel injury, but after Samuel was sidelined after nine plays (15% snap%) last week, it was McCloud who filled in the most with a 71% snap% compared to a 53% snap% for Jennings. Those snap rates were season-highs for both players, and neither guy was heavily targeted in week six. But if I had to lean toward one over the other, McCloud gets the nod due to his lower price tag and the fact that he handled some rushing work (2 carries for 23 yards) last week, much like Deebo Samuel is known to do.

TE Josh Oliver: He’s a $200 punt play who will have a moderately strong chance to have an offensive impact. Oliver has played 38% of snaps this season, has a 22.2% target per route run rate, and could luck out with two or three receptions and/or a touchdown.

Monday Night Football TD Call

RB Christian McCaffrey

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Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers D/ST, WR Jordan Addison: CMC’s uncertain workload and slate-high DFS salary may make him a better bet as a FLEX play, but he’s a near lock for a touchdown if he handles even half of his usual volume. Pair him with the 49ers D/ST for an affordable correlation play and run it back with Addison, who should be more involved through the air in Justin Jefferson’s second full-game absence.

*WR Brandon Aiyuk, QB Brock Purdy, WR Brandon Powell: Auyik has perhaps the most raw fantasy point upside in this game as he should simply dominate targets and air yards with no Deebo Samuel on the field (and he’d probably lead the 49ers in targets/air yards even if Deebo was playing). Stack him with Brock Purdy in the FLEX and offset the high cost of that WR/QB stack by punting with a cheap Brandon Powell as a bring-back play.

*TE George Kittle, QB Brock Purdy, RB Alexander Mattison: We’ll see if Primetime George continues to shine on the day after National Tight End Day. While his last primetime showing (Wk5 vs. DAL) was a bit fluky with all three of his receptions being touchdowns, we should still expect him to have a major impact tonight. Stack CPTN Kittle with Purdy and run it back with a fairly high-floor play like Mattison.

*QB Brock Purdy, WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle: Standard CPTN Purdy double-stack. Aiyuk and Kittle should lead the 49ers in targets. I would lock in Aiyuk in any CPTN Purdy lineups, but Kittle could be interchangeable with cheaper guys like Ray-Ray McCloud III or Jauan Jennings. CMC also works as a “stackable” receiver with Purdy, if you’re comfortable with spending that much dough on those three 49ers players.

*WR Jordan Addison, QB Kirk Cousins, RB Christian McCaffrey: Most lineups will likely have a 49ers player in the captain slot tonight so going with any Vikings player at the premium 1.5x position will be an easy way to get different in GPPs. We haven’t seen Addison’s ceiling yet and he’s a strong candidate to command a season-high in targets tonight. If Addison is the optimal captain, Kirk Cousins will likely check in as an optimal FLEX, so we’ll maintain correlation by completing the WR/QB stack. Bring it back with CMC, who makes for a luxury bring-back option in this build.

*RB Alexander Mattison, QB Brock Purdy, WR Brandon Aiyuk: Eventually, Mattison’s heavy redzone usage (discussed in his spotlighted segment) will result in touchdowns. He’ll likely need a multi-touchdown performance in this game to qualify as the optimal captain -- unlikely, but possible. We’ve seen plenty of big NFL upsets in the last couple of weeks and if the Vikings play with a lead for any significant portion of this game, Mattison should eat up some volume and we’ll be able to comfortably afford Purdy/Aiyuk as a bring-back stack.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jordan Addison + Brandon Aiyuk MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Combo)

Christian McCaffrey MORE than 65.5 Rush Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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