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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3) | 43.5 O/U

CHI: 20.3 Implied Points | MIN: 23.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Justin Jefferson - OUT/IR, RB D’Onta Foreman - OUT, QB Kirk Cousins - OUT/IR, RB Cam Akers - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Bears - 17, Vikings, 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Vikings, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bears

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Justin Fields: In his first game back from injury following a four-week absence, Justin Fields completed 69.6% of his passes for 169 yards and a touchdown while surpassing the century mark on the ground with 104 rushing yards on 18 attempts (5.8 YPC). A dual-threat QB like Fields is always going to command some captain consideration on these showdown slates. It’s not an ideal match-up against a Vikings defense that somewhat surprisingly ranks top 10 in both pass (10th) and rush (7th) DVOA, but they’ve also allowed +21% more FPPG to QBs at home while Justin Fields has averaged +15.7% more FPPG on the road this season.

WR DJ Moore: In the six games that QB Justin Fields has been fully healthy (weeks 1-5 & week 11), Moore has commanded a team-leading 26.5% target%, 43.4% air yard%, and he has averaged 104.5 YPG, 1.0 TD/gm, and 22.12 PPR fantasy points. The Bears’ passing attack is far from elite, but Moore is the clear-cut number-one receiving option, and he is heavily targeted, typically further down the field (13.5-yard aDOT) when Fields is at the helm. The Vikings have allowed the 7th most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season (Moore: 82% PerimeterRoute%) and they have also given up +37% more FPPG to WRs at home (last nine games).

TE TJ Hockenson: With Joshua Dobbs in at QB for, essentially, the last three games, Hockenson has received a massive 35.4% target% and a team-leading 40.4% air yard%. A tight end leading their team in both target share and air yard share for any multi-game stretch is a rarity, but there is a clear want from Dobbs to get the ball into his talented tight end’s hands. The Bears have allowed the 6th most FPPG to TEs this season, 147% more FPPG to TEs when playing on the road, and Hock averaged +40% more FPPG in domed stadiums. If any of those trends continue, we’ll want some captain shares in Hockenson this evening!

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs could have easily landed in the section above and is certainly worthy of captaincy shares as well, but he’s definitely going to set up as a priority FLEX play at the very least. He’s scored a rushing TD in five consecutive games and he’s averaging 24.0 FPPG over his previous four games while tacking on 39.3 rushing YPG. The Bears D has been a pass funnel this season, meaning they’ve been stout on the ground (11th in rush DVOA) but poor against the pass (27th in pass DVOA). So, if the Vikings' offense is to be successful tonight, it’s likely going to come off the arm of Dobbs along with his improvised scrambling ability. The Bears have allowed 1.9 pass TD/gm this season along with a 68.3% completion%. We can’t bank on the weekly rushing TD to continue for Dobbs but he should find a way to post up a strong fantasy performance tonight.

WR Jordan Addison: With Justin Jefferson (hamstring) on the shelf for another week, rookie Jordan Addison remains the de facto WR1 for Minnesota. He has yet to post a big game with Joshua Dobbs in at QB, but the volume should be there and it’s perhaps only a matter of time before Dobbs hits him for a touchdown. Addison has run the largest portion of his routes on the right perimeter, which is where the Bears' secondary has been the most forgiving (7th most FPPG to RWRs).

RB Khalil Herbert: With D’Onta Foreman (ankle/shin) ruled out, Herbert will have the lion’s share of the Bears’ RB touches to himself. It’s not a great match-up since the Vikings check in at 7th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 11th fewest FPPG to RBs this season. That said, Herbert is underpriced by showdown starting RB standards at $6,800, and he could bolster his value by tacking on a few receptions (Vikings: 9.0 receptions/gm to RBs L4Games).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Cole Kmet: He’s not the most consistent asset, as one might expect in this Bears passing attack, but Kmet has had some monster games with Fields in at QB and he’s also averaging +35.4% more FPPG in domed stadiums. The Vikings are also a below-average defense in defending TEs (21st in TE DVOA).

RB Ty Chandler: Alexander Mattison just isn’t all that good nor explosive, so it would make sense for the Vikings to give the rookie Chandler a bit more run as they make their push for the playoffs. Mattison has had 11 runs inside the 10-yard line this season. Those 11 runs have produced zero TDs and negative five rushing yards. Chandler at least flashes a bit more explosiveness at times and averaged 7.3 yards per carry in week 11. The Bears have been stingy against the run and have allowed just 64.1 rush YPG to RBs this season. However, they are surrendering some passing work to opposing backfields -- RBs are averaging 6.2 receptions/gm for 63.3 receiving YPG against the Bears this season.

K Greg Joseph / K Cairo Santos: Domed stadium, good chance we’ll see more field goals than touchdowns, both kickers in play. Joseph has had five missed FGs this season but he has still scored at least eight fantasy points in six of the last seven games. Santos has made 19-of-20 FGA this season with five 50+ yarders, so he profiles as the lower floor/higher ceiling guy.

Vikings D/ST / Bears D/ST: I have no particular preference for one of these defenses over the other, but D/STs are hitting the optimal on these primetime showdowns with high regularity this season, so it’s worth keeping both D/STs in play as FLEX options.

RB Roschon Johnson: I imagine the RB workload will work out to about a 65/35 split, in favor of Herbert over Johnson. You also have to account for Justin Fields and his contributions to the running game. That said, Johnson has been utilized as a pass-catching specialist in certain games this season and the Vikings are giving up a ton of receptions to RBs as of late (9.0 receptions/gm to RBs L4Games).

WR Brandon Powell: Since week six, Powell has played between 53% and 69% of the WR snaps in each game with the Vikings offense operating without superstar Justin Jefferson. He should see around three to five targets with a decent chance at a big play so, for $2,000, Powell looks like one of the safer values in this game.

WR Equanimeous St. Brown / WR Tyler Scott: Both guys are going to split time in three WR sets and play 30-50% of the snaps. Neither guy can be trusted, but one big play could be enough for either to crack the optimal.

Monday Night Football TD Call

RB Khalil Herbert

Remember to participate in the MNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Justin Fields, WR DJ Moore, TE Cole Kmet: Standard CPTN Fields double-stack featuring his two most-targeted pass catchers. Given how much of Fields’ value can come from his rushing ability, I wouldn’t say you have to load up on multiple Bears pass catchers in any CPTN Fields lineup, but I likely would lock in DJ Moore to any CPTN Fields lineup. If you are fitting in a second Bears receiver, Kmet can be interchangeable with one of the volatile WRs (Mooney, St. Brown, Scott).

*WR DJ Moore, QB Justin Fields, WR Brandon Powell: Moore eats up nearly half of the air yards when Fields is in at QB so a Moore/Fields stack makes plenty of sense from an upside standpoint. These are the two most expensive players on the slate so, to save some salary, we’ll use Brandon Powell as a cheap bring-back play.

*TE TJ Hockenson, QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Khalil Herbert: Hockenson has been Dobbs’ safety blanket in his brief tenure with Minnesota and, as discussed in his spotlighted segment, the Bears on the road represent a strong match-up for the star tight end. Herbert is a touch underpriced as a starting RB so we’ll use him as the bring-back correlation play in this stack.

*QB Joshua Dobbs, TE TJ Hockenson, WR Jordan Addison: Standard CPTN Dobbs double-stack. At least one of Hockenson or Addison should be paired with any CPTN Dobbs lineup, but you could also mix in WR Brandon Powell, WR KJ Osborn, or throw a dart on one of the backup TEs (Josh Oliver or Johnny Mundt).

*WR Jordan Addison, QB Joshua Dobbs, WR DJ Moore: The big game for Addison with Dobbs at QB could happen tonight and the rookie has already shown some eye-catching talent this season. He will draw the most favorable WR/CB match-up and will likely go overlooked as a captain play tonight. Pair him with Dobbs in the FLEX and, since Addison won’t break the bank at captain, we’ll spend up with a premium bring-back play in DJ Moore.

*RB Khalil Herbert, Bears D/ST, RB Ty Chandler: This would be a contrarian stack to center around, just in case it’s a sloppy ground-and-pound type of defensive struggle. As mentioned, Herbert will handle most RB touches for Chicago tonight but Chandler is a bit riskier since the Vikings seem stubborn to phase out the plodding Alexander Mattison. I would still try to fit in at least one of the QBs in this RB-heavy build.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Joshua Dobbs MORE than 1.5 Pass + Rush + Rec TDs

Khalil Herbert MORE than 10.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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