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Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) | 39.5 O/U

CIN: 14.8 Implied Points | JAX: 24.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Joe Burrow - OUT/IR, RB Travis Etienne Jr. - Questionable (expected to play), TE Luke Farrell - Questionable, WR J. Agnew - OUT/IR, TE B. Strange - Questionable

Score Prediction: Bengals - 13, Jaguars - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Jaguars, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Jaguars, 4-2 Bengals

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Trevor Lawrence: It’s a rather obvious statement, but whether it’s at captain or FLEX, Trevor Lawrence will be the most likely candidate to land in the optimal lineup tonight. He’s coming off of two huge games where he combined for six total TDs (3 rushing, 3 passing) and, most recently against the Texans in week 12, he threw for a season-high 364 yards. Lawrence has his entire receiving corps fully intact with Zay Jones’ return a couple of weeks ago and he faces a Bengals defense that has allowed 289.0 YPG over their last four and gives up +21% more FPPG to QBs when on the road (last nine games). There are only two strikes I can put against Lawrence. One is the worry of the Joe Burrow-less Bengals offense failing to force an aggressive Jaguars offensive game script since Jacksonville (-10 favorites) can likely jump out to a lead and coast the rest of the way. The second strike is, prior to weeks 11 and 12, Lawrence had failed to show any massive fantasy upside and, up until week 11, his best fantasy score was 20.7 FP which came back in week five. Nonetheless, if you’re running just one main lineup, Lawrence should probably be in there somewhere and, though he is the most expensive player on the slate, $10,800 is not overly steep in this specific game/match-up scenario.

RB Travis Etienne Jr.: ETN is riding a three-game touchdown drought but he did still receive 26 opportunities last week (20 carries, six targets). He continues to lead all NFL RBs in snaps played this season, and he’s 2nd in RB carries (194) behind only Josh Jacobs (220). It’s also easier to run on the Bengals' defense, which ranks 30th in rush DVOA, but 16th in pass DVOA. The Jags are hefty 10-point home favorites so the game script should trend toward being RB-friendly. Etienne is officially “questionable” with a rib injury but all signs point toward him playing -- though he failed to get any full practices in this week (he was a limited participant in all three practices). My biggest worry with ETN is his dwindling snap share. Prior to week 10, he had logged at least a 71% snap% in all eight games, and he was typically playing 80-90% of the snaps most weeks. The emergence of RB D’Ernest Johnson (21%, 24%, 39% snap% L3Games) seems to have given the Jaguars good reason to give ETN a bit more rest during games while keeping him fresh for a playoff run. Don’t get me wrong, Etienne still makes for a top DFS play on this showdown slate, and it was encouraging to see him garner those 26 opportunities last week despite playing 62% of the snaps (2nd lowest snap% of the season). But his upside may be capped a bit with D’Ernest Johnson carving out a meaningful role in recent weeks.

WR Christian Kirk: Kirk has been a very steady fantasy scorer throughout this season, and I still like his potential for a strong game even with WR Zay Jones back in the mix. Kirk (71% SlotRoute%) gets most of his work in from the slot, which is where the Bengals secondary has been most vulnerable. On the season, they’ve allowed the 11th fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs but the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs, including the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs over their last four games. Kirk may not be the most exciting captain play and his ceiling could be called into question, but this really is a great spot for him tonight. He’s also averaging +44.3% more FPPG in outdoor games, and the Bengals have allowed +21% more FPPG to WRs when on the road (last nine games).

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Ja’Marr Chase: This would be a very intriguing primetime match-up were it not for the Joe Burrow injury. The Bengals' passing attack, and offense as a whole, will likely struggle without Burrow at the helm and Cincy owns just a 14.8 implied point total tonight. Nonetheless, that should still mean a pass-heavy script and, though the touchdowns will be hard to come by, the target volume should still be there for a superstar like Ja’Marr Chase. With QB Jake Browning getting his first start of the season last week, Chase led all Bengals receivers in routes (30), snap rate (88%), targets & target% (6 - 24.0%), receptions (4), and receiving yards (81). Sure, those aren’t gaudy numbers but the point is that Chase is, in all likelihood, going to be Jake Browning’s go-to receiver. And, for what it’s worth, Chase was on the receiving end of the garbage-time touchdown from Browning when he came in to replace the injured Burrow in week 11. The perimeter (Chase: 75% PerimeterRoute%) is also where the Jags have been most vulnerable (6th most FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs). Chase’s upside takes an obvious hit without Burrow but he should still be firmly on the FLEX/contrarian captain radar tonight.

QB Jake Browning: We can’t feel great about this play but anytime you get a starting QB under $9k on one of these showdown slates (that isn’t named Zach Wilson), he’ll, more often than not, be deserving of some consideration. Also, Browning didn’t look all too bad last week against the Steelers. He completed 73.1% of his passes and scored 12.98 DKFP. He has also shown a willingness to run for some yardage. Browning picked up 40 rushing yards on four attempts when he came into the game for Burrow back in week 10. The Bengals will also have WR Tee Higgins back in the mix tonight, who has been out with an injury the previous three games. He won’t be a priority target at captain but it’s incredibly difficult for RBs to get much going on the ground against this Jags defense and Jacksonville has allowed 21.0 FPPG to QBs this season. If we can squeeze around 15 DKFP out of Browning, that may be enough for him to land in as an optimal FLEX play by the end of the night.

RB Joe Mixon: The Jags own one of, if not THE, most stubborn run defenses in the NFL. They’ve allowed just 59.2 rush YPG to RBs this season and rank 1st in rush DVOA. On the flip side, no other defense has allowed more targets per game (8.7) and receptions per game (7.2) to the RB position than the Jacksonville Jaguars. So there is a pathway to a respectable fantasy score for Joe Mixon thanks to DraftKings’ full PPR scoring. The Jags are also allowing +27% more FPPG to RBs at home. Mixon has also handled an elite 89.7% share of the Bengals' redzone carries so, if they can get near the goal line, Mixon could find his way into the endzone.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Evan Engram: He’s a little pricey for guys I typically spotlight in this section but Engram will make for a great FLEX filler at his $6,200 tag. He has seen at least seven targets in nine of the last 10 games and faces off with a Bengals defense that has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to TEs this season. Engram’s major hangup is the fact that he has zero touchdowns this season. It doesn’t help matters that he has just a 9.7% redzone target%, which is unusually low for a team’s primary pass-catching tight end. But tonight is as good of a night as any for him to finally haul in his first TD of the season. But even without a TD, he brings a strong floor to DFS lineups.

K Brandon McManus / K Evan McPherson: McManus sets up as a great salary-saving FLEX play and is 4th among NFL kickers in FPPG. He has scored at least 14 FP in four of the last eight and is getting plenty of FG opportunities. He also has five 50+ yarders this season and has yet to miss a PAT. McPherson is a great kicker himself but is stuck on the more limited offense that will (likely) have trouble moving the ball and setting up FG opportunities. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t surprise me if he scores double-digit fantasy points tonight and he’ll be much lower owned than his counterpart. Weather conditions shouldn’t be a problem in Jacksonville tonight.

Jaguars D/ST: The Jags D will be a solid, albeit unexciting, play against a team starting a backup QB that also has a < 15 implied point total.

RB D’Ernest Johnson: Johnson was discussed briefly in Etienne’s spotlight above. He has progressively seen more and more opportunities in recent weeks and he just played a season-high 39% snap% in week 12 -- though, Etienne did get banged up that game (but still ended up playing throughout the game). With the Jaguars facing a short week ahead, if they can get up by a couple of scores tonight, I could easily see Johnson receiving more work in an effort to keep Etienne healthy/fresh.

TE Tanner Hudson: It’s not uncommon for teams to have one or two “pass-blocking specialist” tight ends, but Hudson seems to be a “pass-catching specialist” tight end. Despite only playing around 30% of the snaps across the last four games, he’s commanding 5.3 targets/gm in that stretch and has at least four receptions in each game during that span. No other Bengals tight end has more than 2.0 targets/gm in that same stretch. The Bengals are rotating four tight ends into the mix, but Hudson does seem to be the guy we’ll want to favor for DFS purposes, even though it was TE Drew Sample ($1,200) who caught the touchdown last week. For what it’s worth, Sample is also a fine “touchdown or bust” dart throw.

Bengals D/ST: If the Bengals manage to win this game, it’ll likely be thanks to a big performance from their defense. $3,200 is not a bad price if you’re taking the gamble on them performing tonight. While they do not boast an elite pass rush, the Cincinnati defense does rank 2nd in the NFL in TO% (percentage of drives resulting in an offensive turnover) so they are an opportunistic bunch.

WR Trenton Irwin: He has played 72%, 95%, and 81% of snaps in the last three games, but that snap rate will plummet with Higgins being back. Still, he could end up playing 20-40% of snaps tonight and would just need one big play to pay off his $1,800 price tag. There aren’t any overly enticing true punt plays in this game (as in, a worthy < $1,000 dart throw) but Irvin is a punt play with at least a feasible chance of returning value.

Monday Night Football TD Call

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Remember to participate in the MNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Christian Kirk: Standard CPTN Lawrence double-stack. There is no single receiver that feels like a “must have” in Lawrence stacks, so either Ridley and/or Kirk could be interchangeable with other Jags pass catchers like (in order of preference) TE Evan Engram, WR Zay Jones, or even RB Travis Etienne Jr., who ranks 4th on the team in targets this season.

*RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars D/ST, K Brandon McManus: Maybe an ugly stack on paper but there is plenty of positive correlation between a bellcow RB and his D/ST and his team’s kicker. As mentioned in his spotlighted segment, the only issue I have with ETN as a captain tonight is his diminishing snap rate… But he is the most likely player to score a touchdown in this game (-140 ATTD odds) and, if the Bengals keep things relatively close, he should have a reasonable pathway to 20+ touches.

*WR Christian Kirk, QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Ja’Marr Chase: Zay Jones being back in the mix dings Kirk’s value a bit but, overall, he’s a quality, captain-worthy play. It’s a great match-up versus a Bengals defense that is generous to opposing slot WRs (CIN: 5th most FPPG allowed to slot WRs) and he tends to play better outdoors. Pair him with Lawrence in the FLEX and, thanks to Kirk’s fairly affordable captain salary, we can spend up on a premium bring-back play in WR Ja’Marr Chase, leaving a very manageable $5,833/player remaining for the other three FLEX spots.

*WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Jake Browning, RB D’Ernest Johnson: As discussed, Chase should still be the most involved Bengals receiver in this game, even with WR Tee Higgins returning. He’s always a threat to break off a big YAC play or beat his man in one-on-one coverage. If Chase emerges as the optimal captain, then QB Jake Browning will likely end up as an optimal FLEX play, so we’ll keep the WR/QB stack correlation rolling there. We can take a bit of a flier on the bring-back play with RB D’Ernest Johnson, who has been increasing his role in the Jags offense for each of the last four games (Johnson: 39% snap% last week).

*QB Jake Browning, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins: “Standard” CPTN Browning double-stack. Okay, rolling any sort of Jake Browning stack won’t be the “standard” but he was serviceable last week (73.1% comp%) and now has another weapon at his disposal in Tee Higgins. The Jags have been most vulnerable to perimeter WRs, so rolling with Chase and Higgins (both play around 75-80% on the perimeter) makes the most sense in my book. Other pass catchers to mix in with CPTN Browning stacks (in order of preference): WR Tyler Boyd, RB Joe Mixon (Jags allow most targets/receptions to RBs), TE Tanner Hudson, WR Trenton Irwin, and TE Drew Sample.

*RB Joe Mixon, QB Jake Browning, Bengals D/ST: This Bengals-heavy stack will only work if Cincy pulls off the major upset on the road… but, hey, it could happen. We should expect Mixon to be an involved pass catcher tonight so, while nontraditional, he works as a “stackable” player with QB Jake Browning in the FLEX. Also, if Cincy does win this one, the Bengals D/ST likely played a major role with some turnovers, perhaps a few sacks, and maybe even a defensive touchdown. If you’re looking to get different tonight, this kind of stack will be an easy, albeit risky, way to do it. I would also recommend fading QB Trevor Lawrence in any sort of Bengals-heavy stack like this.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Joe Mixon MORE than 20.5 Receiving Yards

Evan Engram MORE than 7.0 Receiving Targets

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!