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Buffalo Bills (-2) at New York Jets | 44 O/U

BUF: 23.0 Implied Points | NYJ: 21.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Breece Hall - Questionable (expected to play)

Score Prediction: BUF - 20, NYJ - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Jets, 4-2 Bills

Weather Note: Moderate-to-heavy rain is expected pre-game but should be clearing around kickoff. That being said, some wet weather may linger into the first quarter or so, and field conditions could be less-than-ideal for the first half.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Josh Allen: For the most part, outside of cash games, you’ll usually want to opt for a WR or RB as your showdown captain but, as we all know, Josh Allen is no ordinary QB. He’ll face a tough Jets defense right out of the gates but, on top of what he provides in the passing game, he adds plenty of value as a runner. In two games against the Jets last season, Allen combined for 133 rushing yards and three rushing TDs. Without a bona fide stud in the backfield, Allen handles a huge portion of the goal line rushing work himself. Of course, he’s no slouch as a passer either and ranked 8th in the NFL last season with an 11.9 yards per completion average and his 35 passing TDs ranked 2nd.

WR Garrett Wilson: Being Aaron Rodgers’ top receiver has always been an extremely valuable fantasy role. Second-year star and reigning offensive rookie of the year WR Garrett Wilson looks to have those honors this season. Despite some awful all-around QB play from Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco in 2022, Wilson still posted a 1,100-yard receiving season and commanded an elite 30.2% redzone target%. Rodgers may not be in his prime but he’s a massive upgrade at the QB position, to say the least. Wilson should face plenty of shadow coverage from top Bills CB Tre’Davious White but he put up a solid receiving line of 7-6-78-0 against White and the Bills in week 14 last year. Wilson will also escape coverage from White when he aligns in the slot, which he did nearly 40% of plays in 2022. Over the final eight weeks of the season, the Bills allowed the 3rd-most FPPG to slot WRs.

RB Dalvin Cook: Breece Hall was another Jets skill position player who had a breakout rookie season going last year before an ACL tear in week seven derailed his 2022 campaign. Hall is listed as questionable but is expected to suit up tonight. However, the word is that the Jets will be cautious with his workload to begin the season which means recent free agent acquisition Dalvin Cook should handle the bulk of the work out of the Jets backfield. The 28-year-old Cook should still have plenty of gas left in the tank and we know Aaron Rodgers is not afraid to check down to his running back on a routine basis. The Bills were not good but not overly stingy against RBs last season, allowing the 12th fewest FPPG to RBs. If Cook handles around 15 rushes, a handful of receptions, and finds the endzone, he very well may end up as the optimal captain in a game that isn’t expected to be very high-scoring.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB James Cook: With Devin Singletary’s departure to the Houston Texans, James Cook’s primary competition for rushing yards now is QB Josh Allen. All of the buzz from the Bills’ beat writers says that Cook has emerged as a lead back and should no longer operate in a committee which, if true, will be a valuable fantasy role in one of the NFL’s more potent offenses. It’s a very difficult match-up against a stout Jets front seven, but you have to love the narrative of James Cook wanting to out-shine his brother, Dalvin Cook, on the other side of the field. The Jets also own arguably the NFL’s best secondary, so there could be more of an emphasis placed on the Bills’ ground game and short, dump-off passes to the running back.

TE Dalton Kincaid: The Bills used a premium draft pick taking Dalton Kincaid as the 25th overall pick in the first round of this year’s draft. It’s said ad nauseam, but trusting rookie TEs to perform in the NFL is a risky proposition. But this is the kind of match-up that Kincaid can really come in handy. The Jets allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs last season and they return their elite starting trio of CBs intact for 2023. Kincaid is a skilled receiver who can provide major mismatches in the intermediate passing game. As stout as the Jets D was against WRs, they allowed the 9th most FPPG to TEs in 2022. Of course, veteran TE Dawson Knox is still around and has plenty of experience and rapport with QB Josh Allen. Honestly, both Bills TEs are worth a look in DFS today, but even in his first official NFL game, Kincaid likely has the higher fantasy ceiling.

Bills D/ST / Jets D/ST: If you played last night’s SNF showdown, you probably wish you had rostered the Cowboys D/ST as your captain -- unless you rolled out any of the roughly 5% of lineups that did. This game features two of the better all-around defenses in football and there is a strong chance that rainy, wet weather will impact this game… at least to start with. It’s highly unlikely that we’ll see another 37 fantasy point score out of either D/ST tonight, like what the Cowboys’ D/ST posted versus the Giants. But it’s a good reminder that fluky things happen in primetime, especially this early in the season, and D/STs, whether rostered as a FLEX or captain, can often result in being optimal DFS plays in these single-game formats.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Allen Lazard: Lazard isn’t super cheap, but his $6,400 salary still places him in the top end of the “flex filler” range. I don’t believe we’ll see a huge passing game out of Aaron Rodgers tonight, and Garrett Wilson has the WR1 role pretty much on lock. But Lazard’s chemistry with Rodgers from their time at Green Bay could also pay dividends. Lazard had a solid 20.7% target% in 2022 and he saw some looks further down the field as well, boasting a 12.5-yard aDOT. He’s a good bet to see around 6-to-8 targets, including a couple of deep shots in the mix. I like his chances at posting a double-digit fantasy score, which would make him a fine FLEX play.

K Tyler Bass / K Greg Zuerlein: This could be a game where both offenses move the ball relatively well between the 20s but struggle to punch in touchdowns closer to the endzone against two tough defenses. If several drives do stall out in enemy territory, both of these kickers will come into play as worthy FLEX plays. Bass connected on 30-of-34 FGAs (88.2%) in 2022 but only had two made FGs of 50+ yards. Zeurlein has a bit more accuracy issues, making 30-of-37 FGAs (81.1%) but he also had six 50+ FGs. No significant winds are expected in MetLife Stadium tonight, so even if the field is a bit wet, these guys should be able to put some kicks through the uprights.

WR Randall Cobb: He may not play an every-down role but Randall Cobb should see a handful of high-percentage targets on short-to-intermediate routes. He caught 68% of his targets from Rodgers last season and will be useful in moving the chains and sustaining drives.

WR Deonte Harty: Beyond Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, there is some uncertainty around who the Bills’ third wide receiver will be. Isaiah McKenzie, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder all departed this off-season so the primary slot receiver role is there for the taking. Deonte Harty is currently listed as the third starting WR on the Bills’ depth chart, so we’ll assume that he’ll get the first crack at slot duties. At the stone minimum of $200, Harty won’t need a huge day to return dividends. The Jets’s secondary, while still strong, were most vulnerable to slot WRs in 2022.

Monday Night Football TD Call

QB Josh Allen (Rush/Rec TD)

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Josh Allen, TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Deonte Harty: You’ll probably notice that neither Stefon Diggs nor Gabe Davis was spotlighted above. There’s always the possibility that either, or both, could put up strong fantasy scores… but it’s just a brutal match-up on the perimeter against Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed -- though Diggs should run about a third of his routes from the slot. With that clarified, we’ll still want to stack a couple of Bills pass catchers when rolling out Josh Allen at CPTN. It’s an expensive move, so spending down on guys like Kincaid and Harty to free up salary elsewhere may just work out.

*WR Garrett Wilson, QB Aaron Rodgers, RB James Cook: Wilson is going to have some massive games this season with Rodgers slinging him the ball. It’s a tough match-up versus the Bills, but we still have to acknowledge his overall upside and his strong chance to become the optimal captain play. Complete the WR/QB stack with Rodgers in the FLEX and run it back with James Cook on the other side.

*RB Dalvin Cook, Jets D/ST, WR Allen Lazard: With this stack, we’re predicting the Jets to emphasize the ground game and short passing game with Dalvin Cook being the primary playmaker and keeping Josh Allen and the Bills offense off the field. Run the Jets D/ST in the FLEX for correlation purposes and, as discussed above, Lazard should also work out as a safe FLEX play.

*RB James Cook, Bills D/ST, TE Dalton Kincaid: Mirroring the same sort of concept above, just switching to favoring the Bills side of things in this one.

*WR Deonte Harty + All the Studs: This probably fails 99 times out of 100, but if Harty plays the majority of Bills snaps out of the slot, given his $200 price tag ($300 CPTN), it’s not too farfetched that he could be the optimal captain with a sort of 6-65-1 receiving line. We’ve discussed how stingy those perimeter cornerbacks are for the Jets… so who knows, targets may find themselves to Harty one way or another. It would allow you to load up on any number of the other top players in your FLEX positions.

PrizePicks TNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for Thursday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Dalvin Cook MORE than 61.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Josh Allen MORE than 37.4 Rush Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!