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Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7) | 47 O/U

DEN: 20.0 Implied Points | BUF: 27.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: TE Dawson Knox - OUT/IR, RB Damien Harris - OUT/IR, WR Brandon Johnson - OUT/IR, TE Greg Dulcich - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Broncos - 17, Bills - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bills, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Broncos, 5-1 Bills

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Josh Allen: After being arguably the worst defensive unit in the NFL to begin the season, the Broncos D has improved lately and they even held Patrick Mahomes to a season-low 8.64 DKFP back in week eight. But Josh Allen heads into this one scoring at least 25.72 DKFP in five of his last six games and he’s averaging 28.6 DKFP at home this season. The Broncos also allow +29% more FPPG to QBs when they’re on the road (last nine games). As usual, Allen will be among the safest captain selections to deploy and he’s punched in a rushing score in six of the last seven games as well.

WR Stefon Diggs: Diggs will likely face shadow coverage from Pat Surtain II when running perimeter routes (Diggs: 62% perimeter%). However, it’s not necessarily a match-up to shy away from considering the fact that Surtain has allowed the most yards per route covered among all members of the Broncos' secondary, which ranks 32nd in pass DVOA. As mentioned, the Broncos defense has been much improved in recent weeks and they’re also fresh off of their bye. Over their last four games, Denver has allowed the 2nd fewest FPPG to WRs. Nonetheless, Diggs is about as match-up proof as it gets and remains a top choice for captain.

QB Russell Wilson: Buffalo has allowed +27% more FPPG to QBs at home (last nine games). While the passing yardage hasn’t been sky-high for Wilson this season (201.6 YPG), he is averaging 2.0 pass TDs/gm while also using his rushing/scrambling ability quite a bit (25.1 rush YPG). The Bills defense has taken some hits with some key injuries this season, and they’re not exactly a dominant unit. They check in at 20th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 11th most FPPG to QBs L4Games. There’s also the strong likelihood that Denver will either be playing from behind or a neutral game script in this one, so Wilson and the Broncos offense should need to stay aggressive all evening.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

TE Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid has finally seen a noticeable price bump following three strong performances in a row. His role has grown noticeably with TE Dawson Knox (wrist/IR) on the mend. Knox was injured in week seven and in these last three games, Kincaid has caught 23-of-26 targets for 221 yards (73.7 YPG) and a touchdown. It’s safe to say that the rookie tight end has earned Josh Allen’s trust and he’s been catching nearly every target that heads in his direction (88.9% catch%). It’s a prime match-up against a Broncos defense that allows an NFL-high 71.1 YPG to TEs and +53% more FPPG to TEs when on the road (last nine games). Kincaid is a go-to FLEX play this evening but is well-deserving of some captain shares as well.

RB Javonte Williams: Williams logged a season-high 63% snap% in week eight. Of his 45 snaps played, he either ran the ball or caught a pass on 30 plays. The volume is certainly encouraging, although the efficiency wasn’t exactly great in that last outing. There’s no guarantee he sees anywhere close to that sort of volume tonight, especially if the Broncos get behind on the scoreboard early. But it is a surprisingly solid match-up against a Bills D that is midpack (17th) in rush DVOA and has allowed the 11th most FPPG to RBs this season, including +30% more FPPG when at home (last nine games).

WR Courtland Sutton: Sutton has had a knack for the endzone this season and his six receiving scores account for 37.5% of the Broncos total receiving touchdowns. He has brought in 71.7% of his targets this season and owns a team-leading 28.1% redzone target%. Several members of the Bills secondary are either out or banged up for this game. Expect another strong performance from Sutton with great odds of snagging a touchdown.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Khalil Shakir: Shakir has taken over as the WR3 in the Bills offense while primarily operating out of the slot. He has played 71% and 65% of the offensive snaps in the last two games and he has caught 100% of his targets in the last five games. The slot is a soft spot for the Broncos' secondary, which has allowed the 11th most FPPG to slot WRs L4Weeks.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin: McLaughlin has been extremely impressive on a per-touch basis, averaging 7.1 YPC this season. Unfortunately, his snap% has been under 20% the last two games but when he is on the field, he is getting touches at a high clip. Given his big play ability, he’s worth a shot at his $2,600 salary.

RB Latavius Murray: He has played at least 45% of the snaps in three of the last four games, but he’s generally used as a blocker and will struggle to handle more than a handful of touches. That said, Murray has seen some redzone/goal line usage and could always pay off his $1,800 salary by falling into the endzone.

RB Samaje Perine: He routinely sees more snaps than McLaughlin but hasn’t been nearly as explosive running the ball (3.8 YPC). Perine is, however, used quite a bit as a receiver and he has averaged 10.5 YPR this season. The Broncos backfield is a three-headed conundrum but Perine is another guy worthy of some consideration given his low $1,400 salary.

TE Adam Trautman: Trautman has logged an 80% snap% this season so he’s on the field for most plays, but doesn’t usually command more than one or two targets per game. Nonetheless, at the stone minimum of $200, all it takes is a couple of catches and a touchdown for him to smash value. He also has two five-target games this season, so there is a chance he randomly becomes a bit more involved. The Bills are allowing the 7th most FPPG to TEs L4Weeks.

Monday Night Football TD Call

TE Dalton Kincaid

Remember to participate in the MNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dalton Kincaid: Standard CPTN Allen double-stack. Due to price, I don’t think Diggs is a MUST play in CPTN Allen lineups, but it’s close. Diggs or Kincaid could be interchangeable with WR Gabe Davis or WR Khalil Shakir… or you could roll with three Bills’ receivers for the triple-stack.

*WR Stefon Diggs, QB Josh Allen, RB Jaleel McLaughlin: Diggs has posted zero dud performances this season and the match-up with Pat Surtain II is not a scary one. Diggs will also see plenty of work out of the slot, where the Broncos have also been vulnerable. Complete the WR/QB stack with Allen in the FLEX and, due to the high cost of this stack, we’ll punt with RB Jaleel McLaughlin as a bring-back play, leaving a manageable $5,600/player for the remaining three FLEX spots.

*QB Russell Wilson: WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jerry Jeudy: Standard CPTN Wilson double-stack featuring his two most-targeted receivers. A sneaky addition to CPTN Wilson double stacks would be RB Samaje Perine, who surprisingly ranks third on the team with a 12.7% target%.

*TE Dalton Kincaid, QB Josh Allen, WR Courtland Sutton: Kincaid will play around 90% of the snaps tonight and he’s moved into being the secondary receiving option behind Diggs in this offense. Well, of course, stack him with Josh Allen and gain some solid touchdown upside by rolling with Sutton as a bring-back play.

*RB Javonte Williams, QB Josh Allen, WR Khalil Shakir: If Williams can flirt with 20 touches, I like his potential against a Bills defense that, in general, has not been great due to injuries. Williams is far from my favorite captain play, but he’s reasonably priced at $7,200. Getting a Josh Allen/Khalil Shakir stack in the FLEX still leaves $7,400/player left over for the remaining three FLEX spots.

*WR Courtland Sutton, QB Russell Wilson, WR Stefon Diggs: Given his touchdown equity on this passing offense, Sutton feels underpriced at $7,000. We’ll go with a Sutton/Wilson stack here and still have plenty of salary to comfortably fit a premiere bring-back play in with Diggs ($6,033/player remaining).

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Sorry, no recommended PrizePicks plays tonight!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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