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Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at New York Jets | 40 O/U

LAC: 21.8 Implied Points | NYJ: 18.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Joshua Palmer - OUT/IR, WR Allen Lazard - Questionable (expected to play), WR Mike Williams - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Chargers - 24, Jets - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chargers, 4-2 Jets, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Chargers (light GPP sprinkle)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Austin Ekeler: While it wasn’t a productive day on the ground in week eight, Ekeler turned in a vintage Ekeler-esque performance that included catching 7-of-8 targets for 94 yards and a receiving touchdown. Overall, he was either targeted or received a carry on 23 of his 46 snaps (67% snap%). His receiving role is further solidified with both Joshua Palmer and Mike Williams on the IR. The Jets are also vulnerable on the ground. While their pass defense is stout (6th in pass DVOA), they’ve been below average against the run (19th in rush DVOA). Over their last four games, they’re allowing the 4th most FPPG to RBs. Opposing offenses are also heavily targeting their RBs against the Jets. RBs have averaged 8.6 targets/gm, 6.4 receptions/gm, and 46.1 receiving YPC against New York this season. That all bodes well for Ekeler, who remains one of the best receiving backs in the NFL.

WR Keenan Allen: It’s far from an ideal match-up for Allen against a Jets defense that has allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs this season. However, in an offense that is down its WR2 (Mike Williams) and WR3 (Joshua Palmer), Allen is going to be fed targets regardless and has commanded at least nine targets in 6-of-7 games this season. We’ve also seen WR1s that are in a similar tier as Allen have very productive games against the Jets -- Stefon Diggs went for 29.2 DKFP in week one, CeeDee Lamb put up 28.3 DKFP in week two, and AJ Brown posted 23.1 DKFP in week six. A Keenan Allen ceiling game likely isn’t in the cards this evening, but he remains one of the most heavily utilized WRs in the NFL and shouldn’t be avoided tonight strictly due to the match-up.

RB Breece Hall: Hall has handled his three highest snap shares of the season across the last three games (64%, 66%, 52%). In turn, he has procured three consecutive 20+ DKFP performances, while finding the endzone in each game. Most recently, he was targeted a season-high nine times, catching six for 76 yards. Much like the Jets have been vulnerable to receiving RBs, so have the Chargers. Over the last four games, RBs are averaging 7.5 receptions/gm for 68.3 receiving YPG. The Chargers are holding RBs to 3.7 YPC this season but their 21st rush DVOA ranking suggests some regression is due in that regard. Hall has also been outstanding after initial contact and leads all NFL RBs this season with a 2.5 YAC/Att. We could see big nights for both of the versatile RBs in this primetime match-up.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Justin Herbert: Herbert makes more sense as a FLEX play tonight because this has been a tough match-up for opposing QBs (Jets: 13th fewest FPPG to QBs, 6th in pass DVOA) and he’s without some of his better receiving weapons. That said, Herbert has scored below 20 DKFP just once this season and the Jets have allowed +18% more FPPG to QBs at home (last nine games). It also wouldn’t be a surprise if Herbert puts up some solid production on the ground. Though he’s not among the elite scrambling QBs in the NFL, it is a skillset in his bag and the Jets have surrendered the 2nd most rushing yards to QBs this season (36.4 YPG). This game possesses a low 40 over/under so, even if he puts up around 15-20 fantasy points, that could be enough to easily land him in the optimal lineup.

WR Garrett Wilson: All things considered, Zach Wilson has not totally crushed Garrett Wilson’s fantasy value as much as some feared. He is, by far, Z. Wilson’s favorite receiver, and G. Wilson’s 34.0% target% ranks 2nd among all NFL receivers, and his absurd 49.9% air yard% easily tops the league. G. Wilson also owns a mammoth 57.9% redzone target%. Despite the elite target and air yard shares, Zach Wilson has limited Garrett Wilson’s ceiling to 20.6 DKFP this season and the QB/WR duo has not connected on a touchdown since week two. However, a match-up with a porous Chargers secondary, which has given up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs and ranks 27th in pass DVOA, could be what breaks the dam to Garret Wilson’s upside. It’s worth noting that Wilson’s two highest single-game receiving yardage totals have come in the last two games (90 yards week six, 100 yards week eight). I like his chances of eclipsing the 100-yard mark again tonight and maybe, juuuust maybe, he’ll haul in a touchdown as well. Garrett Wilson is one of the best FLEX plays in this game and is certainly deserving of some captaincy shares in case that ceiling game finally arrives.

TE Gerald Everett: Despite ranking 5th in TE DVOA, the Jets have allowed strong production to the position, including the 9th most FPPG. Their five TDs allowed to TEs are tied for 1st (most) in the NFL. Justin Herbert can’t throw it to Keenan Allen every play so guys like Everett are going to need to step up to help offset the WR injuries. Everett sat out last week with a hip injury but practiced in full every day this past week, so he’s good to go for tonight.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

Chargers D/ST / Jets D/ST: Both defenses carry some FLEX appeal tonight. Of course, the Jets D is the better of the two but draw the more difficult match-up with Justin Herbert and a capable Chargers offense. QB Zach Wilson is filling much more of a “game manager” role, with his number one goal being to avoid turnovers, and that has helped the Jets to three consecutive wins, including a big week six victory over the mighty Eagles. Defenses aren’t completely shutting down the Jets' offense lately so, if I had to go with one, it’s likely going to be the Jets D/ST due to more overall upside.

K Cameron Dicker / K Greg Zeurlein: 5-10 mph winds in New York tonight but we’ll likely see more field goals than touchdowns in a low-scoring match-up. Both kickers are in play.

WR Quentin Johnston: The rookie has not lived up to his first-round billing yet this season but he’s going to take on a larger role by necessity due to the Chargers’ WR injuries. Johnston did reach season highs in snap% (70%), targets (six), receptions (five), and yards (50) last week, which is clearly a good sign heading into tonight. For a $3,600 price tag, he’s going to be firmly in play as a cheap FLEX option. The Chargers did activate WR Jalen Guyton off of the PUP list this week, and he could be a threat to eat up some WR snaps but, unfortunately, he is not available in the DK player pool.

TE Donald Parham Jr.: Parham only has 13 catches on the season but four have gone for touchdowns. At 6’8”, he is a go-to threat in the redzone (20% RZ target%) but, with Gerald Everett back this week, he’s much more of a touchdown-based boom-or-bust play.

TE Tyler Conklin: Conklin went without a catch on two targets last week and, while I don’t imagine he will post back-to-back goose eggs, that is going to be his floor with Zach Wilson at QB. That said, Conklin is 2nd on the team with 20 receptions, and his 14.3% target% is tied with WR Allen Lazard for 2nd. It’s also a stellar match-up against a Chargers defense that has allowed the 4th most FPPG to TEs this season.

RB Joshua Kelley: Without an Ekeler injury, Kelley would need a touchdown to return value but he broke off a long TD run in week seven and should flirt with a 30% snap% and 5-10 touches tonight.

WR Simi Fehoko: He probably won’t fly too far under the radar after catching a primetime touchdown last week, but Fehoko could very well operate as the Chargers’ WR3 tonight. He was 4th among WR snaps last week, and that was with Palmer logging a 68% snap%. However, it is unsure if he’ll fall behind the now-healthy Jalen Guyton in the WR pecking order. Consider Fehoko to be a high-risk punt play at his $600 DK salary.

RB Michael Carter: Carter has moved ahead of Dalvin Cook as the Jets’ RB2 in recent weeks. Carter has out-snapped Cook in four consecutive games and has logged as high as a 31% snap% in that span. As long as Breece Hall is healthy, Carter isn’t going to handle significant volume but we don’t need much for value at his stone minimum $200 salary.

WR Xavier Gipson: He has played at least 25% of the snaps in two of the last three games. Gipson has speed to burn and could always rip off a huge play (or return a kick to the house as the Jets’ return man). Boom-or-bust min-priced punt.

Monday Night Football TD Call

RB Austin Ekeler

Remember to participate in the MNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Austin Ekeler, QB Justin Herbert, K Cameron Dicker: Chargers-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every LAC point scored tonight. Ekeler’s talent as a receiver makes him a “stackable” pass catcher with Herbert in the FLEX as well.

*WR Keenan Allen, QB Justin Herbert, TE Tyler Conklin: As mentioned in his spotlight, while the Jets are stout against WRs in general (fewest FPPG allowed), high-end WR1s have had success against them this season. Allen will get his targets one way or another and has plenty of touchdown equity. Complete the WR/QB stack with Herbert in the FLEX and run it back with a cheap Tyler Conklin to free up some salary elsewhere.

*RB Breece Hall, Jets D/ST, RB Austin Ekeler: I don’t mind rolling with both RB1s in the same lineup whatsoever in a game that projects to be low-scoring. We’ll connect some correlation with CPTN Hall by putting the Jets D/ST in the FLEX. Hall has ripped off three quality games in a row and the Jets D/ST has averaged 11.7 FPPG in that span.

*QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett: Standard CPTN Herbert double-stack. Keenan Allen should be attached to any CPTN Herbert lineup, but Everett could be interchangeable with Quentin Johnston, Donald Parham Jr., or Simi Fehoko. RB Austin Ekeler is, of course, stackable with Herbert as well, if you’re willing to commit such as large chunk of salary to the Chargers offense.

*WR Garrett Wilson, QB Zach Wilson, WR Quentin Johnston: Garrett Wilson owns such a massive share of the targets and air yards that I don’t believe you HAVE to stack him with Zach Wilson, but if G. Wilson does end up as the optimal captain play, that only increases the likelihood that Z. Wilson is also an optimal FLEX play. So we’ll roll with the correlation there and run it back with a cheap bring-back play in Quentin Johnston. This stack leaves you with $7,733/player for the remaining three slots -- plenty enough for two studs and a punt or one stud and two mid-range plays.

*TE Gerald Everett, QB Justin Herbert, WR Garrett Wilson: Everett has not put up more than 47 yards in a game this season, so he may need a multi-touchdown night to end up as the optimal captain. It’s feasible given the banged-up status of the Chargers’ receiving corps. And, as mentioned, the Jets are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to TEs this season. Stack with Herbert and, since we’re not breaking the bank with Everett at captain, we can splurge on a high-end bring-back play with Garrett Wilson.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Garrett Wilson MORE than 9.5 Receiving Targets

Austin Ekeler MORE than 36.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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