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Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers | 50.5 O/U

DAL: 26.0 Implied Points | LAC: 24.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Joshua Palmer - Questionable (expected to play), TE Donald Parham Jr. - Questionable, TE Peyton Hendershot - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: DAL: 24, LAC: 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chargers, 4-2 Cowboys

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Justin Herbert: Herbert has scored no less than 20.92 DKFP in four games this season and the Chargers have had two weeks to prep for this home match-up as they enter out of their bye. Folks may be tempted to avoid Herbert due to the match-up as the Cowboys have allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs this season. However, the Cowboys have not exactly faced a gauntlet of stellar QBs this season -- Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, Mac Jones, and Brock Purdy. Arguably the best QB on that list would be Brock Purdy, and he dropped 26.08 DKFP on Dallas in week five. Dallas will also be without key defensive players CB Trevon Diggs (out for the season) and LB Leighton Vander Esch. In what could be a back-and-forth high-scoring game, I see no reason to go away from Herbert in this spot.

RB Tony Pollard: Four of Dallas’ five games this season have been decided by at least 20 points, with the other remaining game being a 12-point loss to the Cardinals. All of those blowout game scripts have not been favorable for the RB position and have capped Tony Pollard’s usage and upside to a noticeable extent, but we should expect to see a competitive match-up tonight. It’s an excellent match-up for Pollard to explode as he faces a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA and has also allowed 6.8 receptions/54.5 receiving YPG to RBs this season. Pollard’s two touchdowns both came in week one, yet he has had 31 total redzone opportunities this year (27 rushes, 4 targets), so the positive TD regression could begin tonight. Pollard remains one of the better RBs when it comes to fighting for extra yardage, ranking 10th in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt. He also averages +48.4% more FPPG in domed stadium games. At his $9,600 base salary on DraftKings, he feels a tad underpriced and should be a go-to captain option tonight.

WR CeeDee Lamb: Similar to Pollard, Lamb has had his fair share of less-than-stellar fantasy performances, and the blowouts haven’t exactly helped. I believe it’s no coincidence that in the Cowboys’ most competitive game this season (Week 3 @ ARI), Lamb logged a season-high snap% of 83%. That being said, Lamb still leads the team in target% (21.7%), air yard% (26.3%), receptions (27), and receiving yards (358), and he has hauled in 77.1% of his targets this season. The Chargers rank 22nd in WR1 DVOA, have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs, and give up the most yards per target to slot receivers (Lamb: 70% slot%). I expect 10+ targets for Lamb this evening with a strong chance at a touchdown and 80-120 receiving yards.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the most expensive player on the slate, making him a tough fit at captain ($16,800 CPTN salary). He hasn’t played since week one due to a high ankle sprain, but there are no expectations of any significant snap restrictions tonight. When healthy, we know he’s one of the most productive RBs in the NFL, and his heavy involvement in the passing game always comes in handy with full PPR scoring on DraftKings. But rolling Ekeler out as a premium FLEX option may be the sweet spot for showdown lineups tonight. The Cowboys have held RBs to a 3.9 YPC average and were able to keep Christian McCaffrey in check last week (14.8 DKFP). However, based on their 14th-ranked rush DVOA, the Cowboys are “good, not elite” against the run, and not having LB L. Vander Esch available doesn’t help their chances against Ekeler. This will be Ekeler’s first game played this season without WR Mike Williams (knee/IR) on the field, which could mean additional targets for the star Chargers RB. It may not be a great spot for a ceiling game, but Ekeler is one of the few “game script independent” RBs in the NFL, and, barring a complete blowout, he will see touches throughout the entire game regardless of whether the Chargers are leading, tied, or playing from behind on the scoreboard.

WR Keenan Allen: Similar to the point made in Justin Herbert’s write-up, the Cowboys have allowed the 2nd fewest FPPG to WRs, but they have not faced any elite, or even necessarily good, passing attacks outside of Brock Purdy and the 49ers. Allen has garnered an excellent 31.0% target% on the season, which ranks 7th among NFL receivers, and he has caught 79.5% of those targets. Allen runs primarily out of the slot (66% slot%) which means he’ll draw the most favorable WR/CB match-up against slot CB Jourdan Lewis, the Cowboys’ lowest-rated coverage corner (per PFF). Allen isn’t cheap but makes for a strong FLEX play and a somewhat contrarian captain candidate.

TE Jake Ferguson: Dak Prescott has always provided solid volume to his tight end, which has been no different with Jake Ferguson this season. Ferguson trails only CeeDee Lamb in team targets, and his 26.7% targets per route run rate leads all Cowboys receivers. Perhaps most importantly, when the Cowboys have ventured into the redzone, Ferguson has commanded a team-leading 32.3% RZ target%, which is an elite figure. The Chargers have somewhat surprisingly been stout against tight ends, and rank 3rd in TE DVOA. However, the one truly involved TE they’ve faced this season has been Vikings’ TE TJ Hockenson, who caught 8-of-11 targets for 78 yards against LAC in week three. Ferguson’s +240 odds of being an anytime touchdown scorer rank 6th in this game, and he won’t break the bank at his $5,200 showdown salary.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Brandon Aubrey / K Cameron Dicker: A domed match-up with two solid offenses often bodes well for kickers in relation to their fantasy production. Aubrey has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season but one (11.4 FPPG). However, Dicker is $600 less expensive and could offer similar upside. I’m not a fan of playing both kickers in the same lineup, but rolling out one might be a solid idea if you need an affordable FLEX play with a decent floor.

TE Gerald Everett: Not an exciting play, but Everett has caught 92.9% of his targets this season and could receive a slight bump if Donald Parham Jr. (wrist) sits out. The Cowboys rank 20th in TE DVOA.

WR Quentin Johnston: Johnston logged just one catch on three targets in week four, AKA the first Chargers’ game this season without WR Mike Williams available. However, his 51% snap% in week four was nearly double his previous season-high of 27%, and he ran just nine fewer pass routes than Keenan Allen and eight fewer than Joshua Palmer. The Chargers spent their 21st overall pick on Johnston in this year’s draft, and the big 6’4” receiver out of TCU shares plenty of physical qualities with Mike Williams, and the rookie may even be a bit faster. Now that Johnston has essentially had three weeks, including the bye, to prepare for his expanded role, he should be poised for his best fantasy outing of the season despite a tough match-up with Cowboys perimeter corners DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore. He could end up being a great bargain at his $4,200 price tag, especially if Joshua Palmer (groin/questionable - expected to play) isn’t 100% or re-aggravates his injury.

WR Michael Gallup: Gallup has at least five targets in his last three games and he has at least five receptions for 60 yards in two of those three games. Overall, it has been a quiet season for Gallup, but he has run the 2nd most routes on the team and is tied for 3rd in team targets. Primarily, his $2,800 DraftKings salary is just entirely too cheap. Brandin Cooks has not made a significant impact in this Cowboys offense so Gallup should still be viewed as the WR2 on a team that will likely have to stay aggressive through the air in what figures to be a close, high-scoring game.

WR Derius Davis: It’s nothing significant, but Davis logged a season-high 18% snap% in week four (first game w/ no Mike Williams) and caught both of his targets while taking three rush attempts for 51 yards. I wouldn’t necessarily expect those rush attempts to continue with Ekeler back, but Davis is a speedster that the Chargers could manufacture some designed touches for on plays like bubble screens and swing passes while he’s in pre-snap motion. His aDOT has been behind the line of scrimmage but he is picking up 11.3 yards after the catch and has some shiftiness in his game.

WR Jalen Tolbert: While it may be a byproduct of all of those blowouts, Tolbert has logged a respectable 39% snap% on the season. Though he has just nine targets on the year, there have been two games where Tolbert saw four targets, and he is being targeted fairly deep down the field based on his 12.6-yard aDOT. Worth a dart throw in more aggressive GPP builds given his bare minimum $200 salary.

TE Luke Schoonmaker: Another Cowboys bare minimum dart throw. With TE Peyton Hendershot (ankle/IR) out in each of the last two weeks, Schoonmaker has played 41% and 56% of the snaps. Barring an early game injury to TE Jake Ferguson, Schoonmaker will be a touchdown-or-bust lotto ticket, but he’s going to see some decent snaps and run a fair amount of routes, so there is a chance he has some impact in this game.

Monday Night Football TD Call

RB Tony Pollard

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, WR Quentin Johnston: Standard CPTN Herbert double-stack. I’d be tempted to lock in Keenan Allen in any CPTN Herbert lineups, but Johnston is interchangeable with guys like Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett, or even a punt play like Derius Davis if you really want to save some salary.

*RB Tony Pollard, K Brandon Aubrey, RB Austin Ekeler: We have two stud RBs in this game and it might not be a bad idea to load up on both Pollard and Ekeler in the same lineup. It’s an expensive duo, so we’ll pair Cowboys’ kicker Brandon Aubrey with CPTN Pollard for correlation purposes (someone has to move the ball and help set up FG opportunities).

*WR CeeDee Lamb, QB Dak Prescott, RB Austin Ekeler: As mentioned in his spotlight, Lamb draws an excellent match-up against the Chargers, who have struggled against slot receivers this season. Dak Prescott wasn’t spotlighted in today’s article, but if Lamb ends up as the optimal captain play, there’s a better chance than not that Prescott will be an optimal FLEX play, so we should complete the WR/QB stack. We’ll also run it back on the other side with Ekeler, who is expensive but works out from a game script correlation standpoint.

*RB Austin Ekeler, QB Justin Herbert, K Cameron Dicker: Chargers-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every offensive point scored for LAC tonight. Ekeler’s pass-catching prowess also makes him a “stackable” receiver with Justin Herbert.

*WR Keenan Allen, QB Justin Herbert, WR Michael Gallup: As we saw in week three, Allen is one of maybe two or three NFL receivers who could command 20 targets in a game and that not be all too surprising. He draws the most favorable WR/CB match-up among Chargers’ WRs and if this game trends toward a shootout, Allen is poised for another huge performance. Of course, we’re going to stack him with Herbert in the FLEX while saving some salary with a cheap Michael Gallup as the bring-back option.

*TE Jake Ferguson, QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb: Cowboys-heavy stack featuring Dak Prescott’s two most-targeted receivers this season. Ferguson’s heavy involvement in the redzone (32.3% RZ target%) gives him realistic multi-touchdown upside and, given his affordable captain salary, we can spend up on Dak and Lamb in the FLEX while still having an average salary of $7,733 to spend on the remaining three players.

*WR Michael Gallup + Any combination of studs you desire: Gallup is arguably the most under-priced player on DraftKings and he’ll only cost $4,200 in the captain position. He has yet to find the endzone this season but if he sees similar volume as he did in week three (7 targets, 6 receptions, 92 yards) while bringing in a touchdown, he could easily emerge as the optimal captain play simply because you can easily jam in three or four of the stud players into the FLEX in CPTN Gallup builds. More often than not in showdown contests, you need the highest-scoring player at captain and not the best value. However, Gallup could realistically score 15-20 DKFP tonight and be an exception to that rule.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Cameron Dicker MORE than 1.5 FGs Made

Tony Pollard MORE than 20.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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