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Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 43.5 O/U

PHI: 23.3 Implied Points | TB: 20.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relvant Injuries: WR AJ Brown - OUT, QB Baker Mayfield - Questionable (expected to play)

Score Prediction: Eagles - 21, Bucs - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bucs, 4-2 Eagles

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Jalen Hurts: It’ll be difficult to leave Jalen Hurts out of the captain conversation. The Eagles faded heavily down the final stretch of the regular season, going 1-5 over the final six weeks. They’ll also be without top WR AJ Brown (knee/out). Nonetheless, Jalen Hurts was the QB2 in fantasy this season and, if we throw out that inconsequential week 18 game against the Giants, Hurts secured at least 19.9 DKFP in 14-of-16 games this season. No AJ Brown could lead to more designed QB runs for Hurts and, when passing, he’ll be up against a middling Bucs secondary that ranks 14th in pass DVOA. You could make an argument for fading Hurts tonight or favoring him more as a FLEX play, but there’s no doubt that his floor/ceiling combination makes him one of the best captain candidates.

WR Mike Evans: The Eagles' secondary has been a unit we’ve attacked all season and there’s no point stopping now. They’ve surrendered the most FPPG to WRs, rank 29th in pass DVOA, and allow 50% more FPPG to taller WRs (Mike Evans is 6’5”, as a reminder). Evans is averaging 22.2 FPPG in home games this season and he should absolutely feast in this match-up. The only real worry is the fact that QB Baker Mayfield isn’t 100%, but there’s no doubt he’s going to power through his ankle/rib injuries and gut it out tonight.

WR DeVonta Smith: The Eagles have one of the narrowest target trees in the NFL with 82% of overall targets being distributed to just four players this season -- AJ Brown (30.1% TGT%), DeVonta Smith (22.8% TGT%), Dallas Goedert (19.1% TGT%) and D’Andre Swift (10.0% TGT%). Of course, the most targeted receiver in that group will be sidelined tonight, so other Eagles receivers will have to absorb the targets left behind by AJ Brown. As mentioned in Hurts’ spotlight, the Bucs are a middling 14th in pass DVOA, but they’re 25th in WR1 DVOA. DeVonta Smith heads into this game as the Eagles’ unquestioned WR1. The absence of Brown will lead to more defensive attention being put on Smith, but his ceiling will be through the roof tonight.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Rachaad White: Consistency has been the name of the game for Rachaad White, who finished the season as the RB4 in PPR fantasy scoring. He averaged 19.8 touches/gm on the year and he secured at least 15.9 DKFP in ten of the final 12 regular season games. The Eagles’ run defense started off strong at the beginning of the season but they’ve since faded heavily, ending the regular season at 22nd in rush DVOA and they gave up the 3rd most FPPG to RBs over their previous four games. As long as the Bucs do not fall behind by multiple scores early on, White’s role could be expanded due to Baker Mayfield’s less-than-ideal health. Either way, White should be a good bet for 20+ touches tonight and, while his ceiling isn’t sky-high, he feels like one of the safer FLEX plays in this game.

QB Baker Mayfield: We can’t love the Bucs' passing attack without also loving Baker Mayfield tonight. Obviously, the fact that he is at less than 100% health isn’t ideal, but few match-ups are better for a QB than the Eagles (2nd most FPPG allowed to QBs this season). Mayfield also had a sneaky-good season, ending the regular season as the QB10 in fantasy scoring and he ranked 12th in quarterback rating.

TE Dallas Goedert: The Bucs have been pretty awful against tight ends this season, allowing the 3rd most FPPG to the position. No other defense faced more tight end targets than Tampa Bay (153 TE targets against, 9.0 TE targets/gm). This could easily be a 10+ target night for Goedert as he should soak up some of the volume left behind by AJ Brown. I also like Goedert’s +210 anytime touchdown odds this evening.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Jake Elliott / K Chase McLaughlin: Weather conditions won’t be perfect for kickers in this one, since some rain is possible, but winds aren’t much of a concern. Both kickers make for acceptable value FLEX plays in a game that should see several FG opportunities. Elliott is sixth among kickers in fantasy scoring this season and McLaughlin has secured at least 11 fantasy points in four of his last five games.

WR Julio Jones: We’ll see how much juice Julio has left in the tank as he takes on an expanded role in place of the injured AJ Brown. Jones has had a minimal impact since joining the Eagles mid-season in week seven. In 11 games played, he has just 11 catches on 19 targets for 74 yards. However, three of those catches have gone for touchdowns, so he’s getting some love in the redzone. And, more importantly, he should play a significant portion of the snaps tonight. There are a couple of other depth receivers the Eagles could turn to in AJ Brown’s absence, but Jones feels like the more preferred option.

Eagles D/ST: We can’t pretend that the Eagles defense has been great this season but a case can be made for them tonight as they face off with a hobbled Baker Mayfield. If Mayfield’s injuries prove to be significantly impactful on his performance, or if he gets knocked out of the game altogether, then the Bucs would have to turn to backup QB Kyle Trask. It would not be an ideal situation given the high-stakes pressure of this game. If a defense ends up as an optimal play tonight, it just feels like it’ll probably be the Eagles' D/ST.

WR Quez Watkins / WR Olamide Zaccheaus: Julio Jones is seemingly the odds-on favorite to see the biggest snap increase in the absence of AJ Brown, but one of these WRs could step up as well. Zaccheaus has run 73% of his routes out of the slot this season so it seems less likely that he would take over many of the perimeter routes that AJ Brown would run. Watkins has seen limited targets when he’s been on the field this season but he did put up a productive 11/8/93/1 target/receiving line in last week’s game while playing 98% of the snaps. So, when it comes to Eagles value receiving options, I’d probably rank them Jones, Watkins, and Zaccheaus in order of preference. Watkins is nearly neck-and-neck with Jones while Zaccheaus is a more distant third.

WR Trey Palmer: The floor is low with Palmer but he has played 65% of the snaps this season and routinely sees a handful of targets each game as the Bucs’ WR3. As mentioned multiple times already, this is a stellar match-up for the Tampa Bay passing attack and, at $2,800, we can feel pretty good about using Palmer as a flier in a game that doesn’t have many ultra-cheap DFS plays.

Monday Night Football TD Call

WR Mike Evans

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert: Standard CPTN Hurts double-stack. I don’t mind mixing in some of the cheap Eagles WRs (Jones, Watkins, Zaccheaus) but I would lock in at least one of Smith or Goedert in any CPTN Hurts lineup, with Smith being fairly close to a lock. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,866.

*WR Mike Evans, QB Baker Mayfield, WR DeVonta Smith: You could argue that Mike Evans has the highest ceiling of any player in this game as he should be salivating at this match-up. He posted a quality 5/60/1 receiving line on 10 targets against the Eagles in week three of this season and he’s had some other big performances against Philly in seasons past as well. Of course, his success will largely hinge on how well Baker Mayfield can play through injury tonight, but if Evans ends up as the optimal captain, Mayfield will likely land as an optimal FLEX play, so we’ll definitely want to roll with the WR/QB stack here. Both passing attacks are in great spots tonight so rolling with DeVonta Smith as a high-end bring-back play feels like a strong route to take. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,233.

*WR DeVonta Smith, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Trey Palmer: Not having AJ Brown available is a massive blow to this Eagles offense but Smith has all of the tools to handle a WR1 workload and he’s priced as if Brown was playing. Unless the Eagles jump out to a huge early lead, I would be relatively shocked if Smith doesn’t command double-digit targets tonight. Stack him with QB Jalen Hurts and, to save some salary, let’s roll with a cheap bring-back play in WR Trey Palmer. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $7,566.

*RB Rachaad White, K Chase McLaughlin, QB Jalen Hurts: In terms of popularity, the running games won’t be as highly owned as the passing attacks but Rachaad White certainly has plenty of captain appeal. As discussed, he has been incredibly consistent for the last three-plus months and he has a safe volume-based floor against an Eagles run defense that has really fallen off a cliff lately. White may also take on an increased role if Baker Mayfield is limited in any capacity. Kickers correlate well with their RBs, so we’ll get McLaughlin in at the FLEX and splurge on a premium bring-back play with Jalen Hurts: Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,100.

*QB Baker Mayfield, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin: Standard CPTN Mayfield double-stack. It’ll be a little ballsy rolling with a banged-up Mayfield at captain, but if he’s not hampered by his injuries, he could easily pick apart an awful Eagles secondary. I would lock Evans into any CPTN Mayfield lineup. Godwin is the pretty clear second receiving option and has posted some of his better box scores in recent weeks. Other Bucs pass catchers to mix into CPTN Mayfield lineups (in order of preference): WR Trey Palmer, TE Cade Otton, and RB Rachaad White. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,633.

*TE Dallas Goedert, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Rachaad White: We’re getting a generous price tag on all of the Eagles pass catchers since DraftKings didn’t price them as if AJ Brown was out. The Bucs have bled fantasy production to tight ends all season so Goedert has ample potential to land as an optimal play tonight. As usual, stack with Hurts, and then we can roll with a high-floor bring-back option with Rachaad White. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,200.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Rachaad White MORE than 16.5 Rush Attempts

DeVonta Smith MORE than 68.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!