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Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) | 45.5 O/U

PHI: 21.5 Implied Points | KC: 24.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: TE Dallas Goedert - OUT, WR Richie James Jr. - Questionable, WR Justyn Ross - OUT, WR Quez Watkins - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Eagles - 24, Chiefs - 28

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Eagles

Weather Note: It’s looking like a cold, wet, and somewhat windy night in Kansas City tonight.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Patrick Mahomes: One of the most anticipated match-ups of the season kicks off tonight with a Super Bowl LVII re-match between the Chiefs and Eagles! These two teams are loaded and there is a long list of viable captain candidates. Mahomes will lead the way as he takes on an Eagles defense that has been a certified pass funnel this season. Philadelphia has been extremely stout on the ground (2nd in rush DVOA) but their pass defense (25th in pass DVOA) has been far from elite. The Eagles are also allowing +26% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road (last nine games). Mahomes has also been at his best at home where he is averaging 24.4 FPPG, which is +42.7% more than his 17.1 FPPG average in four road games this season. The weather is expected to be a bit unpleasant for this game, but it’s not enough to significantly downgrade either passing attack.

QB Jalen Hurts: Despite the losing effort, Hurts had a monster game against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII -- he passed for 300+ yards and a touchdown while adding 70 yards rushing and THREE rushing TDs in the 35-38 loss. We haven’t seen that same sort of ceiling out of him yet this season but he’s been as steady as ever, scoring at least 21.88 DKFP in each of the previous eight games. However, the Chiefs' defense has been much improved this season, specifically against the pass. Kansas City ranks 3rd in pass DVOA and they’ve allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. Hurts can still get it done through the air against tough pass defenses; for example, he threw for 281 yards against the Jets (4th in pass DVOA) back in week six. He’s also going to be a safe bet to do a fair amount of damage on the ground, which is where the Chiefs are much more forgiving (21st in rush DVOA). And, as always, if the Eagles get on the goal line, Hurts is probably punching it in for a touchdown.

TE Travis Kelce: Nothing is surprising about the three guys I’m spotlighting as go-to captain plays tonight. Kelce is coming off of a dud in the Chiefs’ last game but he’ll be in a prime bounce-back spot tonight. The Eagles are not overly stout against the tight end position and they somewhat surprisingly rank dead last in TE DVOA. Kelce put up a 6-81-1 receiving line against them in the Super Bowl and, with no alpha wide receiver for the Chiefs' offense, a similar, if not better, performance should be in the cards tonight. If you’re making just one lineup tonight, Kelce should be in it.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR AJ Brown: Brown has his streak of six straight games with 127+ receiving yards broken in the last game, but he still came away with a 9-7-66-1 target/receiving line and a very respectable 19.6 DKFP score versus a strong Cowboys secondary. Brown will likely draw shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed, who has held opposing WR1s in check throughout this season. However, Sneed comes in with a 55.9 defensive grade (per PFF.com) which ranks 88th among all NFL cornerbacks, so this is still a match-up that the talented AJ Brown can exploit. Hurts is going to deliver Brown significant targets regardless of match-up and he could see a few additional targets due to the absence of TE Dallas Goedert (forearm/out). He’s clearly in play as either a FLEX or captain play in tonight’s showdown.

RB D’Andre Swift: As touched on already, the Chiefs' defense has been more successfully attacked on the ground and they trend toward being more of a run funnel defense (3rd in pass DVOA but 21st in rush DVOA). Swift has had at least 17 touches in each of the previous eight games and he should see quality volume tonight, both as a runner and receiver. His touchdown value does take a hit with Jalen Hurts’ almost being a lock to punch in any goal-line TD, but it is a plus match-up and I’m sure the Eagles will want to control the clock with the run game in order to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off of the field.

WR Rashee Rice: Rice has seen an increase in snap rate in each of the last five games. Beginning in week five, his snap rates have gone as follows: 30%, 49%, 59%, 61%, and 68% (week nine). Rice has gradually gained the trust of Patrick Mahomes as the season has progressed and he’s been a sure-handed receiver with a 78.0% catch rate. Rice owns a strong 25.8% target per route run rate and he’s been a real factor in the redzone, where he has commanded a 23.4% RZ target%, which is tied for the team lead with TE Travis Kelce. He’s a solid bet for a touchdown reception tonight and, if his snaps continue to trend upward, then that will simply mean more routes and more target opportunities for the second-round rookie receiver.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Jake Elliott / K Harrison Butker: The weather won’t provide the best kicking conditions tonight but both of these defenses are solid and could force plenty of drives to stall out within field goal range. Elliott has had some down games recently but that’s not totally his fault. He has connected on 18-of-20 (90%) FGA this season and has boomed five 50+ yarders. Butker has yet to miss a field goal this season (18-of-18) with three 50+ yarders and double-digit fantasy points in five of his last seven games.

RB Kenneth Gainwell: The running theory for tonight is that, as long as the Eagles are either in a neutral game script or playing with a lead, they’ll want to drain the clock via the run game and keep the Chiefs offense on the sideline. Swift and Hurts are going to account for most of the rushing damage, but Gainwell should see some touches as well. He has logged at least a 37% snap% in six of the eight games he’s played this season. He’s getting some redzone work in recently as well and has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games.

TE Jack Stoll: With Dallas Goedert ruled out for this game, Stoll will step into the TE1 role and should play most of the snaps tonight. Of course, we cannot assume that Stoll will see the same sort of target share as Goedert. He has just two receptions on the season to go along with a paltry 5.9% target per route run rate. But he’s a cheap option with some touchdown potential nonetheless. TE Albert Okwuegbunam or TE Grant Calcaterra could also be worthy cheap GPP dart throws in case either one of those guys is viewed as a preferred pass catcher over Stoll.

WR Julio Jones / WR Olamide Zaccheaus: I’ll lump in these two Eagles WRs together. Neither guy is a priority but could luck their way into the optimal lineup without having to have a huge game. Julio can be a factor in the redzone and brought in an eight-yard touchdown in week eight, though he will only play around 20-30% of the snaps without an injury to one of the top WRs. Zaccheaus will play around half of the snaps, run primarily out of the slot, and could rip off a big play. The Eagles' passing attack is very condensed, but one of the Philly WRs NOT named AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith could see some target trickle down with Goedert out tonight.

WR Justin Watson: Outside of Rashee Rice, there isn’t a Chiefs wide receiver that you can feel remotely close to playing and they’re all priced about the same on this slate. Watson is probably going to be the most preferred KC WR play out of the Watson/Moore/MVS/Hardman/Toney group. Watson played 63% of the snaps in the last game, which was second only to Rice (68%) among Chiefs WRs. Watson also leads the team with a 21.5-yard aDOT, so he’s a big play threat and could just need one deep catch to crack the optimal lineup.

TE Noah Gray: Gray has played 59% of the snaps this season and he’s somewhat surprisingly 4th on the team in routes run. He’s typically good for two or three catches a game and could always luck box a touchdown as well. For $1,800, he sets up as one of the more trustworthy super cheap options.

Monday Night Football TD Call

TE Travis Kelce

Remember to participate in the MNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Rashee Rice: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack featuring his two most trustworthy targets. Kelce is a near-lock for any Mahomes lineup but you could either replace Rice or add in another one of the dart throw Chiefs receivers -- Watson, Gray, MVS, Toney, Hardman, or Moore. RB Jerick McKinnon could also be considered a “stackable” receiver with Mahomes… but, of course, none of those guys are high-confidence plays.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR DeVonta Smith: Standard CPTN Hurts stack. As discussed, this Chiefs pass defense is stingy but such a large chunk of the target share will be directed at the WR duo of Brown and Smith. This stack will also eat up a significant amount of lineup salary ($4,766/player for the remaining three FLEX plays) so the Eagles will likely need to win big for this to be an optimal approach. If you want to switch out one of Brown or Smith, then Julio Jones, Zaccheaus, or one of the tight ends make sense as cheap dart throws to stack with Hurts. But I would lock in at least one of those top WRs in any CPTN Hurts lineups.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, K Harrison Butker: Chiefs-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every point scored by Kansas City tonight. It’ll be tough for the Chiefs to get much going on the ground against this Eagles defensive front that ranks 2nd in rush DVOA, so it would be a reasonable prediction to say that all Chiefs points will come via the pass and field goals.

*WR AJ Brown, QB Jalen Hurts, TE Noah Gray: Brown has been about as match-up proof as it gets for the last two-plus months so he’s got plenty of captain appeal in this Super Bowl re-match. Stack him with Hurts in the FLEX and run it back with a cheap Chiefs pass catcher like Noah Gray to open up some salary elsewhere.

*RB D’Andre Swift, QB Jalen Hurts, K Jake Elliott: Eagles-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every Philly point scored. Kanas City is more easily attacked on the ground and Swift has seen consistent volume dating back to week two.

*WR Rashee Rice, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB D’Andre Swift: Rice has been solid from a fantasy standpoint and his snap rate has been climbing steadily. The big game could be just around the corner so we’ll give him some captain shares tonight, stack with Mahomes, and utilize Swift as a strongly correlated bring-back play.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

D’Andre Swift MORE than 14.0 Rush Attempts

Isiah Pacheco + Justin Watson LESS than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Combo)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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