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Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) | 45.5 O/U

GB: 21.5 Implied Points | LV: 24.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Davante Adams - Questionable (expected to play), RB Aaron Jones - OUT

Score Prediction: GB - 28, LV - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Packers, 4-2 Raiders

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Davante Adams: Adams enters week five with a questionable designation due to a shoulder injury but is fully expected to suit up tonight as he takes on his former Packers team for the first time. Though he may not be exactly at 100%, he cannot be overlooked on tonight’s MNF showdown slate. Adams simply dominates the Raiders’ target share and air yards, leading all NFL receivers in both categories with a monstrous 38.8% target% and 52.5% air yard%. It’ll be worth monitoring the Packers injury report regarding 2x Pro Bowl CB Jaire Alexander, who is questionable to play after missing the last two games with a back injury. If Alexander suits up, he’ll likely shadow Adams on his perimeter routes. Regardless, there are few match-ups that Adams is unable to exploit and he will be force-fed targets no matter what. The Packers do allow the 10th most FPPG to WRs on the left perimeter, which is where Adams runs over half of his routes.

QB Jordan Love: While an awful first half against Detroit in week four had some folks sweating in their Thursday Night Football contests, Love salvaged his fantasy day and ended the game with a respectable 19.64 DKFP. He has scored at least that many DKFP in all four games this season while also accounting for multiple touchdowns each week. The Packers are now coming into this match-up off of a “mini bye week” after not playing for 11 days. The extra time to prepare could benefit Love as he goes up against a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA and has allowed a 70.7% completion rate. With RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) looking unlikely to suit up, the Packers will place the vast majority of their chips on Love and the passing game. Getting WR Christian Watson back in action last week just gives Love another dangerous weapon to throw to and he has already shown some solid rapport with young WRs Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed as well as rookie tight end Luke Musgrave. None of these Packers receivers are household names, but it is an athletic and solid all-around group of pass catchers that Love has at his disposal. The Packers QB is firmly on the captain radar tonight.

WR Romeo Doubs: QB Jordan Love has shown quite the fondness of Romeo Doubs this season and he has delivered him 25 combined targets in the last two games alone. Doubs has been on the receiving end on three of Love’s eight passing TDs and he leads the Packers’ receivers in routes run, target share (25.8%), and air yard% (27.9%). Doubs can be expected to run most of his routes on the left perimeter and the Raiders have allowed the 5th most FPPG to LWRs this season. WR Christian Watson should see a sizable snap increase after logging a 46% snap% in his season debut in week four. But whether Doubs is viewed as the team’s WR1 or WR2 is of little concern. The Raiders rank 30th in DVOA vs. WR1s and 29th in DVOA vs. WR2s. I’m making Doubs my touchdown call for tonight and will be buying shares as a captain play and core FLEX option.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Josh Jacobs: Jacobs finally found paydirt for the first time this season in week four but, overall, it has been a lackluster 2023 campaign for the Raiders bellcow back. Jacobs has dominated backfield snaps, playing at least a 70% snap% in all four games (76% snap% on the season) and he has accounted for 72.1% of Las Vegas’ rush attempts. He is also a heavily involved pass-catching RB and his 19.4% target% ranks 3rd on the team. However, his 11-target game last week with backup QB Aidan O’Connell at the helm is certainly inflating those numbers. All of this being said, we can expect another quality performance out of Jacobs as he takes on a Packers defense that ranks 26th in rush DVOA and allows the 3rd most FPPG to RBs, including 6.5 receptions/gm to the position. There is no question that Jacobs possesses slate-breaking multi-touchdown upside and is worthy of some captain consideration, but rolling him out as a high-end FLEX play feels like the sweet spot tonight.

WR Christian Watson: After logging a 46% snap% in his season debut last week, Watson should face little, if any, snap restrictions. As discussed in Doubs’ spotlight, both he and Watson are viewed as the top two receiving options on the team when both are healthy and it’s shaping up as more of a WR1-A and WR1-B type of situation. Fortunately, the Raiders struggle against both WR1s and WR2s. Watson is more of a big-play candidate, though the target volume should be steady as well thus making him a prime FLEX play and contrarian captain option.

WR Jakobi Meyers: In the two games that Meyers has played with Jimmy Garoppolo this season, he has accounted for a 31.4% target% with 22 combined targets for 16 receptions, 166 yards, and two TDs. Davante Adams is the clear WR1 but he will also command the most defensive attention leaving plenty of one-on-one match-ups for Meyers out in space. Meyers will likely face plenty of coverage from Rasul Douglas, who has been the Packers’ top-rated corner this season. But if the target volume is there, Meyers should find a way to put up strong numbers and pan out as a solid FLEX play.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Luke Musgrave: Musgrave’s week four outing was cut short due to sustaining a concussion and exiting the game after playing just 14 snaps. The good news is that he comes into MNF without any injury designation and he’s seen a sizable DFS price drop. Musgrave logged an 86% snap% and 88% snap% in weeks two and three so, despite the stigma around rookie tight ends, he’s the clear TE1 option for Green Bay when healthy. He also saw eight targets in his last full game played and brings some moderate touchdown potential to the table tonight.

RB AJ Dillon: If Aaron Jones is out Dillon would serve as the de facto Packers RB1. He has been extremely inefficient with his touches this season, averaging just 2.7 YPC, and he’s only been targeted five times (three receptions for 25 yards). But he has logged snap rates of 67%, 52%, and 68% in the last three games with Jones either out or injured mid-game. Dillon has been solid when given additional volume in seasons past and, at $4,600, he’s too cheap to completely ignore. Due to recency bias, Dillon will likely go under-owned so we’ll see if he can muster a season-best performance tonight.
UPDATE: Aaron Jones is out.

K Daniel Carlson / K Anders Carlson: We’ve got a brotherly battle between tonight’s kickers, which is an interesting game note (and I’m sure will be mentioned 100x on the ESPN broadcast). Neither kicker has been a prolific fantasy scorer (by kicker standards) this season, but that’s at no real fault of their own. Both Carlson brothers have made 100% of their FGAs (Daniel: 4/4, Anders: 5/5) and 100% of their XPAs this season. No weather concerns with his game being played in a dome and, based on the match-up itself, it feels like we may have a healthy share of field goal attempts tonight. Both guys make for “decent enough” FLEX plays.

RB Patrick Taylor: Again, with this play, we’re assuming Aaron Jones is sidelined tonight. If AJ Dillon continues to prove ineffective, Patrick Taylor will have a chance to step in and prove himself out of the Packers’ backfield. His best game came in week three, a game where Dillon struggled, putting up just 33 yards on 11 carries. Taylor ended up logging a 39% snap% and, while he wasn’t great on the ground either (3 car., 6 yds), he did provide some value as a pass catcher, hauling in 3-of-4 targets for 23 yards. Not a bad punt play based on his stone minimum $200 salary. RB Emmanuel Wilson could also see the field tonight, but Taylor has out-snapped Wilson 49 to 13 this season, making Taylor the preferred play. UPDATE: Aaron Jones is out.

TE Michael Mayer: The Raiders have not targeted their tight ends much this season but Mayer was one of the better receiving TEs in the 2023 NFL Draft, where the Raiders selected him as the 35th overall pick. Mayer has run 37 routes in the last two games, compared to 16 routes in the first two games, so he’s picking up his involvement in the offense despite just having two targets on the season. Austin Hooper is technically the Raiders’ TE1 but Mayer is the better raw talent. He’s a lotto ticket play, no doubt, but could be a sneaky flier if he hauls in a touchdown and a couple of catches. Backup TEs do seem to regularly shine in primetime, after all. Mayer did bring in a two-point conversion catch in week three so the Raiders do have redzone packages designed with him in mind.

WR Dontayvion Wicks: The return of Christian Watson most heavily impacts Wicks’ snaps but he should still see the field somewhat regularly tonight and probably shouldn’t be priced at the bare minimum. Between weeks two and three, Wicks brought in 6-of-10 targets for 85 yards and a TD and, though he failed to catch his lone target in week four, he still logged a 58% snap% and ran 23 routes.

Monday Night Football TD Call

WR Romeo Doubs

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Davante Adams, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, K Daniel Carlson: He’ll be playing through a shoulder injury but Adams simply dominates targets and air yards in this offense. We’ll complete the WR/QB stack with Jimmy G in the FLEX and help offset Adams’ slate-high DFS salary by rolling out the Raiders kicker, Daniel Carlson.

*QB Jordan Love, WR Romeo Doubs, WR Christian Watson: Standard CPTN Love double-stack featuring his top two WRs.

*WR Romeo Doubs, QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs: It’s a great match-up for Packers WRs so one of them has a strong chance to land in as the optimal captain play tonight. We’ll of course stack Doubs with Love in the FLEX and, given Doubs’ relatively affordable captain salary, we can roll with Josh Jacobs as a premium bring-back option.

*RB Josh Jacobs, QB Jordan Love, TE Luke Musgrave: Jacobs has very little competition for touches in this Raiders backfield and, as we saw in several games last season, his ceiling is as high as anyone in this game. We’ll squeeze in a Love/Musgrave stack in the FLEX as a semi-affordable bring-back stack. If Jacobs ends up as the optimal captain, the Raiders are likely playing with a lead which means Love and the Packers will need to go pass-heavy on the other side.

*WR Christian Watson, QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs: We’re expecting little-to-no limitations on Watson’s snap count tonight and we saw several big games with Aaron Rodgers at QB last season. We’ll see if he can display similar upside with Love at the helm and run it back with Josh Jacobs for the premium bring-back play.

*WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB AJ Dillon: Double-digit targets for Meyers in both games played with Garoppolo this season so the potential is there for him as a low-owned captain play. Run it back with Dillon, who will get the first crack at lead RB duties for Green Bay if Aaron Jones sits.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jordan Love MORE than 17.0 Fantasy Score

Jakobi Meyers + Christian Watson MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Combo)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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