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Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-7) | 46.5 O/U

LV: 19.8 Implied Points | DET: 26.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - Questionable (intends to play), RB David Montgomery - OUT, K Daniel Carlson - Questionable, RB Zonovan Knight - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: LV - 23, DET - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Lions, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Raiders

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Davante Adams: Adams’ frustrations with his “lack of involvement” in the Raiders’ offense has been well-documented. Personally, I don’t see the major issue but perhaps tonight will be one of those times where “the squeaky wheel gets the grease.” He’s had two games where he’s seen less than eight targets this season but, overall, his 30.4% target% ranks as the 7th highest target share in the NFL and his 40.4% air yard% ranks 10th. He’s also seeing a massive 41.0% redzone target%. In a game where the Raiders figure to be playing either from behind or in a neutral game script, Adams should be fed a healthy dose of targets by the now-healthy Jimmy Garoppolo. The Lions rank 9th in pass DVOA but their secondary has been exploitable lately as they have allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs over their last four games.

QB Jared Goff: Week seven was one to forget for the Lions offense as they were getting shutout until a 4th quarter Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown run. The good news is that they’re back at home where Jared Goff has completed 72.9% of his passes and has averaged 24.5 DKFP/gm. This is nothing new for Goff, who tends to play much better in domed stadiums (+43.4% more FPPG). As long as he has his top pass-catching weapon to throw to (WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, currently questionable with an illness but expected to play), Goff has enough upside to fall within captaincy consideration.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs: With RB David Montgomery out last week, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs logged a season-high 87% snap%, which far exceeded his previous season-high 60% snap% in week three (a game that Montgomery also missed). Monty is out again for week eight and, though the Lions have expressed a want to limit the rookie’s touches earlier in the season, we’re now nearing the mid-way point of the regular season and Gibbs should see significant volume out of necessity. In a game where the Lions were being blown out by the Ravens last week, Gibbs only ran the ball 11 times. However, those 11 carries made up 78.6% of Detroit’s week seven rush attempts as RB Craig Reynolds was the only other Lions rusher, with three attempts. Most notably, Gibbs was targeted a whopping 10 times, catching nine passes for 58 yards. The Raiders head in ranking 29th in rush DVOA, they’re allowing 5.0 receptions/gm to RBs, and they’ve given up 1.0 TDs/gm and the 6th most FPPG to the RB position.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Assuming he plays, St. Brown is firmly in the captain/core FLEX player discussion, though his slate-high DraftKings salary and uncertain health would cause me to lean more in favor of him as a FLEX play just in case he’s not 100%. St. Brown sat out in week five but, in his six healthy games, he owns a 32.2% target% which ranks 5th in the NFL. The Raiders have been stingy against WRs, allowing the 7th fewest FPPG. However, their 20th-ranked pass DVOA suggests some regression is due and ARSB is a borderline match-up proof WR to begin with.

WR Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has hauled in a touchdown in three consecutive games and, in general, he has been one of the more productive WR2s in the NFL this season. Meyers now has five touchdowns on the season while garnering 9.3 targets/gm for 6.2 receptions/gm and 64.2 YPG. If we look at the splits where he and Jimmy G have both played (weeks 1, 3, 5, and 6), we’ll see that Meyers has a team-leading 30.0% target% to go along with receiving averages of 7.0 receptions/gm, 75.5 YPG, and 1.0 TDs/gm -- good for 20.55 PPR points/gm. The Lions have been stronger against WR1s, ranking 9th in WR1 DVOA, however, they’ve been a generous match-up for opposing WR2s, ranking 27th in WR2 DVOA. Meyers will be a rock-solid FLEX play tonight and carries some quality captain appeal as well.

TE Sam LaPorta: The Raiders have ranked mid-pack, allowing the 14th fewest FPPG to the TE position. But, we should also look at the TE1s that they’ve faced -- the list includes Cole Kmet (w/ Tyson Bagent at QB, didn’t even target him once), Hunter Henry, Luke Musgrave, Gerald Everett, Pat Freirmuth, Dawson Knox, and Adam Trautman. Not really a tough tight end gauntlet there. Even as a rookie, LaPorta has been one of the more involved tight ends in the NFL this season. Among all TEs, he ranks 7th with a 20.3% target%, 6th with a 20.9% air yard%, 7th in receiving yards (377), and tied for 4th with three touchdowns. There has also been a direct correlation with QB Jared Goff’s tendency to perform better at home and LaPorta has averaged 17.8 FPPG in three home games this season. He sets up as a strong FLEX play regardless, but LaPorta will see a nice boost if Amon-Ra St. Brown is out or limited tonight. LaPorta hauled in a pair of touchdowns when ARSB sat out in week five and could have racked up added receiving production were it not for a blowout (DET won 42-24 vs. CAR).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Josh Reynolds / WR Jameson Williams: Both guys go from “okay” FLEX plays to highly intriguing value plays with upside if St. Brown is out/limited. Assuming ARSB plays, Reynolds is probably the “safer” option of these two but, since returning from suspension in week five, Williams leads the team with a 26.5% air yard% and 18.0-yard aDOT, so he’s getting the deep looks downfield. Williams also has one more target than Reynolds in that three-game stretch despite playing significantly fewer snaps. Don’t let the week seven goose egg deter you from taking a flier on Williams. He was still targeted six times and it’s clear that Goff and the Lions are trying to connect with him on some big plays.

Lions D/ST: The Lions D is 9th in total DVOA and they rank 7th in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 9th lowest rate. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown an interception in every start this season, including two multi-INT games in weeks two and three.

K Riley Patterson: Patterson only has three FGA at home this season, but he’s made all three. He has missed just one FGA this season and has connected on 21-of-21 PATs. He’s the preferred kicker in this game, especially if Daniel Carlson (groin/questionable) is out.

TE Michael Mayer: Mayer has seen the most Raiders TE snaps for three consecutive weeks. He should be more involved now that Garoppolo is back in at QB. In Garoppolo’s last game (week six), Mayer caught 5-of-6 targets for 75 yards on an 81% snap%. The Lions defense has been exploited by TEs this season and they’re allowing the 3rd most FPPG to the position.

RB Craig Reynolds: If the Lions go on to play with a lead for most of this game, expect Reynolds to handle some decent volume out of the backfield -- perhaps around 10 touches or so.

WR Hunter Renfrow: If any Raiders receiver has the right to complain about lack of involvement, it would be Hunter Renfrow. He’s averaging just 2.4 targets/gm this season, though his snaps have dwindled to a 36% snap% on the year. The floor is zero but he does match up well out of the slot (91% slot%) against the Lions, who have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs.

WR Tre Tucker: Tucker is seeing more snaps recently, playing a then-season-high 31% snap% in week six, followed up by a new season-high 49% snap% last week. He’s caught 4-of-5 targets for 73 yards in that span while handling a couple of carries as well. He’s one of the more favorable pure punt plays at just $600 on DraftKings.

Monday Night Football TD Call

WR Davante Adams

Remember to participate in tonight’s TD Calls contest!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Davante Adams, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Jahmyr Gibbs: This is perhaps a “get-right” game for the disgruntled Adams and we might see 15+ targets head in his direction in a pass-heavy Raiders game script. Jimmy G didn’t get a spotlight today, but if Adams ends up as the optimal captain, Garoppolo probably checks in as an optimal FLEX play. We’ll roll with a premium bring-back play in this stack with Gibbs on the other side.

*QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, TE Sam LaPorta: Standard CPTN Goff double-stack. St. Brown “intends to play” tonight and he’s a near lock in any CPTN Goff stacks. LaPorta is a strong secondary stack piece but could be interchangeable with Reynolds, Williams, or even Gibbs who saw 10 targets from Goff last week.

*RB Jahmyr Gibbs, QB Jared Goff, K Riley Patterson: Lions-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every Detroit point scored tonight. The Lions check in with a healthy 26.8 implied team total and should have a major bounce-back performance now that they’re back at home.

*WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, QB Jared Goff, TE Michael Mayer: St. Brown’s last two games have consisted of 34 targets, 25 receptions, 226 yards, and a touchdown… so, yes, he’s in play at captain tonight even if he’s battling an illness. Play him with Goff to complete the WR/QB stack. Since that stack features two of the three most expensive players on this showdown slate, we’ll save some salary with Michael Meyers as the bring-back play. As mentioned in his spotlight, the Lions are allowing the 3rd most FPPG to TEs this season and he should be more involved with Garoppolo back at the helm. Also, it’s Halloween Eve and his name is dangerously close to “Michael Myers.” #ScaryGoodAnalysis

*WR Jakobi Meyers, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions D/ST: No further Michael Myers comments to make here but this is a bit of an “against the grain” stack with Jakobi Meyers at captain since we aren’t locking in his QB in the FLEX. Meyers has had multiple productive games this season where Garoppolo stunk it up, so it doesn’t feel like we have to force him into this CPTN Meyers lineup. Instead, we’ll run a correlation stack on the other side with RB Gibbs and the Lions D/ST in hopes that Meyers still has a strong game but Garoppolo and the rest of the offense struggles (similar to weeks 5 & 6).

*TE Sam LaPorta, QB Jared Goff, WR Jameson Williams + Fade WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Here is a Lions-heavy stack where we’re predicting a down game for St. Brown. Maybe he’s not 100% due to his illness or perhaps the Raiders' defense puts a ton of focus on shutting him down tonight -- as mentioned, Vegas does rank 9th in WR1 DVOA and they’ve also allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to slot WRs, which is where St. Brown has run over half of his routes.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks for tonight’s game!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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