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Seattle Seahawks (-2) at New York Giants | 47 O/U

SEA: 24.5 Implied Points | NYG: 22.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Saquon Barkley - Doubtful, TE Noah Fant - Questionable, TE Will Dissly - Questionable

Score Prediction: SEA - 27, NYG - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Seahawks, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Giants

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Kenneth Walker III: There were some notable concerns about KW3’s workload this season after the Seahawks spent a 2023 second-round pick on Michigan RB Zach Charbonnet. While Charbonnet (32% snap%) has eaten into Walker’s (57% snap%) snaps, the latter has out-touched the former 55 to 19 and has at least 16 touches in all three games. Walker has also handled 72.2% of the Seahawks’ redzone rush attempts and has scored all four of Seattle’s rushing TDs. Walker will be a prime captain candidate against the Giants who have allowed the 6th most FPPG to RBs and rank 23rd in rush DVOA.

QB Daniel Jones: There may not be another QB in the NFL who has a wider range between their fantasy point floor and ceiling than Daniel Jones, but the chance of a ‘Danny Dimes’ ceiling game does look favorable this evening. The Seahawks defense has been surprisingly strong on the ground, allowing just 79.3 rush YPG (6th fewest) and ranking 5th in rush DVOA. It’s been a different story against the pass. Seattle’s extremely banged-up secondary has allowed an NFL-high 339.3 pass YPG to QBs and check in at 29th in pass DVOA. Seattle has also given up 78% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road (L9 Games). With RB Saquon Barkley (ankle/doubtful) looking unlikely to suit up again, extra weight will be placed on Jones passing the ball as well as picking up yardage with his scrambling/rushing ability.

WR DK Metcalf: It’s always a tough call when deciding between Seattle’s top two targets, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Both guys are only seeing around a 20% target% this season, which isn’t dominant, but Metcalf is the guy who owns a team-leading 40.4% share of the team’s total air yards. Metcalf has accounted for 234 air yards + yard after catch compared to 103 for Lockett and he has also caught 78.9% of his targets compared to a 61.9% catch% for Lockett. So, if we’re gunning for a ceiling performance, Metcalf makes for the more favorable captain candidate. Metcalf should also line up across from Giants cornerback Deonte Banks most often among Seahawks WRs, which is the most favorable CB match-up in this NYG secondary.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Geno Smith: The Giants have not been getting torched by opposing QBs, allowing the 15th most FPPG to the position. However, they’ve only faced the likes of Brock Purdy, Joshua Dobbs, and Dak Prescott (who didn’t have to do much while DAL coasted to a 40-0 win). Geno Smith is no gunslinger either, but he’s completing 68.9% of his passes (ranks 10th among NFL QBs) and is no stranger to adding a bit of value (20-50 yards) with his legs -- he’s typically a safe bet for 15-20 FP in most games. You want players with a higher ceiling as your captain play, but Smith sets up as a rock-solid high-floor FLEX play, especially if you’re rolling with a Seahawks receiver at captain.

TE Darren Waller: The Seahawks were awful against tight ends last season, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position. They haven’t been as vulnerable this season, ranking 15th vs. TEs. However, Waller will be the best and most involved tight end they’ve faced thus far in 2023. He leads the Giants in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and is second in air yard%. If we’re expecting the “good version” of Daniel Jones to show up tonight, then his top target (Waller) should also be in line for perhaps his best outing of the season.

WR Darius Slayton: Who is ready to play the Giants WR lottery again? None of these guys have put up a great receiving line in any game this season, but Slayton is the de facto WR1 in the offense even though he has just nine receptions for 109 yards and zero TDs through three weeks. Slayton leads the team in pass routes run (95) and air yard% (34.9%). He also sees targets down the field, based on his 14.5-yard aDOT. If a Giants WR eventually has a 100+ yard game (perhaps with a TD), then Slayton is the most likely guy to do it. And maybe, just maybe, it’ll happen against this Seahawks secondary that is dealing with several injuries and week four absences. Slayton is a worthy FLEX play and contrarian captain candidate at this $5,200 price tag.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Jason Myers / K Graham Gano: We’ve got a fairly high 47 over/under here but neither offense is absolutely dominant. It’s fair to assume that both teams will be able to move the ball fairly well but stall on multiple drives within field goal range. Winds will be a non-issue in the Meadowlands tonight so both kickers make for “fine” salary-saving FLEX plays with Myers being the preferred kicker option.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson made his season debut last week, which was his first taste of NFL action since week 11 of last season -- he was recovering from a knee injury in the meantime. He played just 11 snaps last week, however, he was targeted on five of those snaps, ultimately bringing in four receptions for 21 yards. He caught 74.2% of his targets in 2022, averaging 9.9 YPR. The Giants are coming into MNF on long rest and have not played in 11 days. Robinson does not carry an injury designation into this match-up and could see a significant uptick in snaps. He’s a short aDOT type of receiver but that means high percentage targets and he could be used as an extension of the Saquon-less Giants run game. Not a bad ‘FLEX filler’ at $3,000.

WR Parris Campbell: He played a season-low 21 snaps last week (42% snap%) but still caught all six of his targets. Campbell aligns out of the slot on 83% of his routes and the Seahawks have given up the most FPPG to slot WRs. Giants WR usage continues to be frustrating but Campbell is worth a gamble at his $2,800 price tag. I probably wouldn’t play Campbell and the aforementioned Wan’Dale Robinson in the same lineup since they fill similar roles.

TE Colby Parkinson / TE Will Dissly: These Seahawks TE plays are fairly contingent on TE Noah Fant sitting out tonight. Fant (questionable) was a late addition to the injury report and was a DNP in Saturday’s practice with a knee injury. To me, that would indicate that he’s closer to doubtful, but we’ll have to wait for the final word once inactives are announced ahead of kick-off. Dissly (shoulder) is also questionable after sitting out in week three, but he logged a full practice on Saturday, so he’s likely going to suit up by my guess. Again, assuming Fant is out, Parkinson and Dissly set up as great salary-saving options given their minuscule $800 and $400 salaries, although I probably wouldn’t play both guys in the same lineup. QB Geno Smith has targeted tight ends 23 times this season (7.7 targets/gm, 27.0% target%) so it’s an involved position in the Seahawks' passing game. The Giants are allowing 63.0 YPG to TEs this season.

WR Jake Bobo: He played on a season-high 41% of snaps last week and caught a five-yard TD. Bobo is more valued as a quality run-blocking WR but, if he’s going to play similar snaps tonight, he could luck his way into some production. Minimum-priced lottery ticket.

Monday Night Football TD Call

WR Kenneth Walker III

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Kenneth Walker III, QB Graham Gano, K Jason Myers: Seahawks-heavy stack that could give us exposure to every Seattle point scored tonight. To offset Walker’s slate-high salary, you can throw in one of the cheap Seahawks TEs mentioned above (Dissly, Parkinson) if Noah Fant is out, or mix in one of the affordable Giants WRs.

*QB Daniel Jones, TE Darren Waller, WR Darius Slayton: Standard CPTN Jones double-stack featuring his two most-targeted receivers. I would lock in Waller in any CPTN Jones lineups, but Slayton is interchangeable with the other Giants WRs -- Hodgins, Robinson, Campbell, and Hyatt (WR Sterling Shepard played just two snaps last week, 10 the week before, and looks to be a non-factor with Robinson/Campbell filling the slot WR role).

*WR DK Metcalf, QB Geno Smith, WR Wan’Dale Robinson: Feels like a good spot for Metcalf to break loose for a 100+ yard receiving game with good odds at a touchdown. He draws the best WR/CB match-up (Deonte Banks) and sees the most air yards in the Seahawks offense. Complete the WR/QB stack with Geno Smith in the FLEX and run it back with a cheap Giants receiver, like Robinson, on the other side.

*QB Geno Smith, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett: Standard CPTN Smith double-stack featuring his two most-targeted receivers.

*TE Darren Waller, QB Daniel Jones, RB Kenneth Walker III: I’m not sure if I’d say Waller is “due” for a big game, but it’s a strong spot for him this evening against a Seahawks defense that has not been good whatsoever against TEs in recent history. Pair him with QB Daniel Jones in the FLEX and fit in the premium bring-back option with KW3.

*WR Darius Slayton, QB Daniel Jones, RB Kenneth Walker III: Same stack as above, just switching out Waller for Slayton in hopes for Slayton’s team-leading air yards finally translating into a big receiving performance.

4-2 Giants-heavy stacks: I’m not feeling a 5-1 “smash” build for either team tonight but 4-2 Giants-heavy stacks should be a low-owned alternative in GPPs since most lineups will favor 4-2 Seahawks or go 3-3 balanced. The Seahawks' pass defense has looked awful this season so Daniel Jones and the Giants, who are only +2 point home underdogs, could be in line for a great performance tonight. It wouldn’t be incredibly surprising if New York won this game with a 31-17 type of score, in which case, a 4-2 NYG build would likely be the optimal lineup construction.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kenneth Walker III MORE than 14.5 Rush Attempts

Wan’Dale Robinson MORE than 20.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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