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Football really is a game of inches, though, in the case of last night’s wild NFL kickoff game, it was more like a game of millimeters at the end there. Another special primetime game is on the board today with the first ever NFL game being played in South America with a match-up between the Packers and Eagles in Sao Paulo, Brazil! It’s another game between two high-caliber teams that possess plenty of offensive weapons, so this should be a fun showdown slate to build for! Best of luck!

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2) | 49.5 O/U

Packers: 23.8 Implied Points | Eagles: 25.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd - Questionable, TE Tucker Kraft - Questionable, RB Emanuel Wilson - Questionable, RB AJ Dillon - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Packers - 21, Eagles - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Eagles, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Packers, 5-1 Eagles

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Jalen Hurts: One will have to wonder if the flurry of Hurts goal line touchdowns will take a hit now that they have a premiere RB in the backfield in Saquon Barkley. If you ask me, I doubt the “Tush Push” is going anywhere anytime soon, given its near unstoppableness (made-up word?) behind this elite Eagles O-Line. Outside of what he can do as a runner/goal line scorer, Hurts has one of the best WR tandems at his disposal in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Hurts should have no major problems through the air against a Packers defense that ranked 26th in pass DVOA a season ago.

RB Josh Jacobs: Workload shouldn’t be a major concern for Jacobs tonight as the Packers head in with banged-up backfield depth. On top of AJ Dillon (neck) being placed on season-ending IR, MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson both head in with questionable designations and may not be 100% even if one, or both, backs suit up. The ground game has been generally strong under Matt LeFleur’s offensive scheme and the touch volume for Jacobs, at least to begin the season, should be more secure than they were with Aaron Jones last season.

WR Romeo Doubs: If you did any season-long or best ball drafts this offseason, you were probably constantly conflicted when it came around time for some of these Packers WRs to come off the board. There really isn’t a true WR1 in this group, at least not yet, but it is a talented bunch that features Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks (as the presumed WR4). Doubs is probably more of a low-owned leverage captain play, but I’m slotting him here primarily based on the fact that he logged an 80+% snap% at a much higher clip than any other Green Bay WR last season. Doubs had 14 games last season where he played at least 80% of snaps. Compare that to four such games for Watson (though, he did miss eight games last year), zero for Reed, and zero for Wicks. Now, things can always change in a new season, but Reed is generally used out of the slot and, if I had to guess, Wicks will sub in for Watson more often than he will for Doubs. So we’ll bank on Doubs being out there for the most Jordan Love dropbacks, which amplifies his opportunity to receive targets against an Eagles secondary that was highly exploitable last year, ranking 29th in pass DVOA and allowing the most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR AJ Brown: Brown checks in with a slate-high salary of $11,000. If he had Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow throwing to him, that would be an easier pill to swallow. As it stands, he’s probably best-suited as a FLEX play, though he will make for a strong leverage captain play as well thanks to his enormous ceiling. We know he has that massive ceiling, as we saw on multiple occasions in the early portion of 2023. Brown did not have many big games down the stretch last year but we also have to remember that there was some epically bad offensive play-calling which helped lead to the Eagles’ late-season collapse. New Eagles’ OC Kellen Moore may be more willing to allow Hurts to air it out and, if that is the case, AJ Brown only stands to benefit and he could easily draw 12-15 targets in a potential shootout tonight.

QB Jordan Love: Love took a major step forward in the ‘23 season which led to a fat four-year, $220 million contract extension. His 32 passing TDs were 2nd in the NFL last year and his 4,159 yards ranked 7th. Love averaged 21.1 DKFP over his final eight regular season games and he should be able to pick up right where he left off with a strong supporting cast surrounding him. And, as discussed in Doubs’ spotlight, this isn’t necessarily shaping up like a tough match-up against the Eagles’ secondary. The real question is if you are taking Love in your lineup(s) -- whether it be at captain or FLEX -- who do you stack with him?!

RB Saquon Barkley: Now that Barkley is free from the cesspool that is the New York Giants organization (sorry Giants fans), we should see some monster games out of him on a more routine basis. The O-Line upgrade he’s receiving by going from the Giants to the Eagles cannot be overstated enough. Based on ESPN’s run block win rate in 2023, the Giants ranked 31st while the Eagles ranked 1st overall. Barkley is still in his prime as a running back, at 27 years of age, and though he has dealt with his fair share of injuries in his NFL career, he heads into 2024 fully healthy and ready to dominate for a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Dallas Goedert: In the games that he was healthy, Goedert logged between an 84% and 100% snap% in 11-of-15 games a season ago. His Target% jumped to 20.4% in the redzone and he’s a sure-handed receiver for Jalen Hurts thanks to a 71.4% catch%. The Packers ranked 26th in TE DVOA last season as well, so this should be a fairly friendly match-up for Goedert to begin the season.

WR Christian Watson: Watson is the cheapest of the three primary Packers WRs at a DK salary of $5,600 and there is not much separating the projections on these three guys (Reed, Doubs, and Watson). I’m highest on Doubs, but Watson has that big play ability that could launch him into the optimal on just a couple of deep receptions and/or a touchdown.

K Jake Elliott/K Brayden Narveson: Both kickers will be perfectly fine FLEX plays tonight. Elliott is the known quantity while Narveson is fighting to hold onto the Packers kicker job. Narveson has not played in an actual NFL game before, and his debut will be under unique circumstances in his debut, but he has a big leg and can connect on 50+ yarders if called upon. Kickers are usually “last guy(s) in” for me in single-game lineups, but I would generally advise correlating them with whoever you have in at captain. If you have Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley in at captain, roll with Elliott. If you have Jordan Love or Josh Jacobs at captain, roll Narveson.

TE Luke Musgrave OR TE Tucker Kraft: Musgrave’s viability shoots up significantly if Kraft (back/questionable) is ruled out. Due to his more affordable salary and the fact that he played significantly more snaps than Musgrave did (when they were both healthy) to close out last season, Kraft may be the preferred play if he is active tonight. The Eagles were 28th in TE DVOA in 2023 so this should be a nice spot for whichever guy ends up seeing the most playing time. We’re not going to get an Isaiah Likely-like performance from last night out of either one of these guys, but either could still make the optimal on a few catches and a TD.

WR Jahan Dotson: The Eagles’ WR3 position has never been a very reliable fantasy asset but, after being traded over from Washington 15 days ago, Jahan Dotson likely represents the best WR3 that the Eagles have had in recent memory and, again, new Philly OC Kellen Moore may be more open to spreading the ball around through the air than previous OCs. He’s probably still learning the playbook but there has been enough time since he joined the Eagles for Dotson to have a solid grasp on the plays that he’ll be in on. There is some goose egg potential here but, for the low-end salary, there is some appeal to taking the risk on Dotson.

RB MarShawn Lloyd OR RB Emanuel Wilson: If both guys are active tonight, I’d be more willing to simply cross both out for consideration. However, if one is out while the other is active, they’ll make for an “intriguing enough” punt play. We’ve seen multiple RBs handle meaningful workloads in the same game in the past.

Friday Night Football TD Call

WR Romeo Doubs

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, TE Dallas Goedert: Standard CPTN Hurts double-stack. As is the case with most dual-threat QBs, you don’t necessarily HAVE to double-stack Hurts if he’s your captain. But you do want at least one of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Dallas Goedert in there. With Hurts at captain, we’re mainly hoping for the rushing upside to come through, along with one or two “tush push” TDs. Other Eagles pass catchers to mix into CPTN Hurts lineups (in order of preference): WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jahan Dotson, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Johnny Wilson, RB Kenneth Gainwell, TE Grant Calcaterra. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $5,766.

*RB Josh Jacobs, QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith: It’s not always easy sledding against the Eagles defensive front, but Jacobs has 20+ touch potential and should contribute as a receiver as well. He’s also the most likely touchdown scorer on the Packers side of the ball (-112 odds). If Jacobs ends up as the optimal captain, that means the Eagles will likely need to lean pass-heavy, so we’ll run it back with Hurts and one of his two top WRs in Smith. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,033.

*WR Romeo Doubs, QB Jordan Love, RB Saquon Barkley: As discussed, there isn’t much separating the Packers’ WRs projections but there is a good chance one of them will separate themselves from the pack on a week-by-week basis. Doubs is as good of a bet as any to do that out of the gates and we talked about how his snap rate was the highest of the group for most of last season. We’ll stack him with Love and can afford to run it back with Saquon on the other side. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,866.

*WR AJ Brown, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Josh Jacobs: Similar concept as above, just flipping sides. AJ Brown has the highest individual ceiling in this game but his salary will scare people off of him as a captain play. This stack is expensive and will require you to nail your punt/value plays, but it could easily end up as the optimal stack if Brown becomes the focal point of this Kellen Moore passing attack. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $4,900.

*QB Jordan Love, WR Jayden Reed, WR Romeo Doubs: Standard CPTN Love double-stack. We can, of course, go several different ways with Love double-stacks and feel both good and completely unsure about it. One thing seems for certain -- Jordan Love has turned the corner and is a legit NFL-caliber QB and, aside from Jalen Hurts, he may be the safest floor play in this game. Other Packers pass catchers to mix into CPTN Love lineups (in order of preference): WR Christian Watson, TE Tucker Kraft (if active), WR Dontayvion Wicks, TE Luke Musgrave (preferably if Kraft is inactive), RB Josh Jacobs. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $7,366.

*RB Saquon Barkley, QB Jordan Love, WR Romeo Doubs (Fade QB Jalen Hurts): If Barkley comes away as the optimal captain, he had a stellar Eagles debut and likely put up 100+ total yards and at least one touchdown. We’ll probably need Hurts to surrender any goal-line TDs for Barkley to hit a ceiling/optimal captain game, so fading Hurts in any CPTN Barkley lineups makes sense from a correlation standpoint. Run it back with Love + one of his primary receivers. Average salary per remaining player with this stack: $6,433.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Romeo Doubs MORE than 5.5 Rec Targets

AJ Brown MORE than 8.5 Rec Targets

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!