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Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) | 46 O/U

CHI: 18.3 Implied Points | LAC: 27.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Justin Fields - OUT, WR Joshua Palmer - Questionable, TE Gerald Everett - Questionable

Score Prediction: CHI - 20, LAC - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chargers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bears, 5-1 Chargers

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Justin Herbert: He checks in with the highest salary on the board but Herbert sets up as a strong floor play against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and has allowed 25.2 FPPG to QBs in their road games this season. Herbert has scored at least 20.08 DKFP in 5-of-6 games and the Chargers offense has operated at the 6th fastest pace in the NFL this season.

WR Keenan Allen: Allen has put up a couple of lackluster fantasy scores within his last three games but he’s in line for another hefty target share, especially if either Joshua Palmer or Gerald Everett (both questionable) sit out tonight. Everett looks to be likely to play, but Palmer is considered a game-time decision. Regardless, Allen’s 30.6% target% ranks 7th in the NFL, and the Bears have allowed 40.7 FPPG to WRs on the road.

RB Roschon Johnson: This is perhaps a bit bold as a captain choice, but I imagine many folks will chase the three-touchdown performance from D’Onta Foreman last week. If you recall earlier in the season, Foreman was a healthy scratch when both Khalil Herbert (out/IR) and Johnson were healthy, but with Herbert on the IR and Johnson missing the last two games, the Bears had to get Foreman in the mix out of necessity. Foreman also split snaps evenly with Darrynton Evans last week -- Foreman played a 46% snap% (19 touches) and Evans played a 48% snap% (15 touches). At the very least, Johnson will take over Evans’ workload. Johnson should also be the preferred pass-catching back now that he’s healthy. The Chargers have been fairly stingy on the ground, allowing just 75.2 rush YPG to RBs this season. However, they’re permitting 7.5 receptions/gm for 70.5 receiving YPG to RBs over the last four games. I believe receiving the ball is where Johnson can make his largest impact. In his first career NFL start last week, backup QB Tyson Bagent had just a 2.03-yard aDOT on his 29 pass attempts. That’s a lot of passes coming close to the line of scrimmage… where RBs are generally targeted.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Austin Ekeler: Ekeler has not been overly effective since returning from his ankle injury two games ago but this may be a quality get-right spot for him tonight. The Bears rank 16th in rush DVOA and have given up the 8th most FPPG to RBs, though they’re allowing a low 3.5 YPC average to RBs this season. They are, however, another defense that has had problems against pass-catching RBs. The Bears have surrendered the 5th most receptions, the most receiving yards, and the most receiving TDs to running backs. That certainly sounds like a match-up that the crafty Ekeler could succeed in. Should Joshua Palmer and/or Gerald Everett sit out tonight, Ekeler’s pass-catching role could be further solidified. Ekeler also averages +64.1% more FPPG in domes and the Chargers are at home at the domed SoFi Stadium tonight.

WR DJ Moore: The Chargers have been a dream match-up for opposing WRs this season as they are allowing the most FPPG to the position this season and check in at 28th in pass DVOA. Unfortunately, for the Bears WRs, we can’t place too much faith in Tyson Bagent’s downfield passing ability. As mentioned already, Bagent’s average depth of target was just barely over two yards past the line of scrimmage last week. However, Bagent did send nine targets in Moore’s direction in week seven, resulting in eight catches for 54 yards. Now that Bagent has had a couple of weeks to prepare as the Bears’ starting QB, perhaps he will take a few more shots further downfield tonight. Even after mostly short looks the last couple of games, Moore is 12th in the NFL in yards per reception (15.9) and he ranks 4th among NFL WRs in yards after the catch per receptions (6.8). If the Bears wish to win this game, they’ll need to get the ball into their best healthy playmaker, and that would be DJ Moore’s music.

RB D’Onta Foreman: With price in mind, Rochon Johnson gets the lean from me as the preferred Bears RB. But, even if you take away the three TDs last week, Foreman still churned out 120 scrimmage yards on his 19 touches and he’s proven in seasons past that he can be a productive NFL RB when given the touches. He’s also likely going to serve as the short yardage/goal line back, so who’s to say he doesn’t fall into the endzone a couple of times?

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Cameron Dicker / K Cairo Santos: In a domed match-up featuring two mediocre defenses, both kickers will be decent enough FLEX plays but not a priority. Worth noting, both the Chargers and Bears rank inside the top 10 in the NFL in redzone touchdown conversion rate.

TE Gerald Everett OR TE Donald Parham Jr.: If Everett sits, Parham becomes a very appealing value play in this game. However, with Everett getting in a limited practice on Thursday and full practice on Friday, he should suit up tonight. That will bump Parham down to a touchdown-or-bust FLEX play with Everett being a quality all-around option, especially if WR Joshua Palmer is out.

WR Quentin Johnston: The rookie has not taken advantage of the extra snaps in the wake of the Mike Williams season-ending injury. In the last three games, Johnston has just two catches for 38 yards on a 7.7% target%. He’s only playable if Palmer sits.

Bears D/ST: I don’t expect Chicago will be incredibly effective against a solid Chargers offense, but the Bears D/ST has scored double-digit fantasy points in three consecutive games while holding opponents to 12, 19, and 20 points in that span. At $3,400, they are also $2,400 cheaper than the Chargers defense and are more likely to return value.

WR Tyler Scott: Scott has as many targets (seven) over the last two weeks as WR Darnell Mooney and he’s only $1,200. Scott has played 59% and 56% of the snaps L2Weeks and his short 6.7-yard aDOT coincides with QB Tyson Bagent’s low aDOT on his passes.

WR Derius Davis: He only played 11 offensive snaps (17% snap%) last week but he saw five opportunities (two targets, three carries). That was similar to week four, where Davis played just 12 snaps (18% snap%) but also had five opportunities (two targets, three carries), catching both targets for 16 yards and taking his three carries for 51 yards. At $800, Davis makes for a worthy punt play even if Palmer is active, but he’s an excellent value if Palmer is out since he would play on most/all of three wide receiver sets.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

WR Keenan Allen

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, WR Derius Davis (if J. Palmer is out): Standard CPTN Herbert double-stack. Keenan Allen should be locked into any CPTN Herbert lineups, but the second receiving option is interchangeable. Davis saves a ton of salary and is a viable stack option if Palmer sits. If Palmer plays, he’s also a strong stack piece, along with one of the TEs (Everett/Parham). If you really want to commit a large chunk of salary to the Chargers side of the ball, RB Austin Ekeler is a stackable Chargers player as well.

*WR Keenan Allen, QB Justin Herbert, RB Roschon Johnson: Allen owns arguably the highest ceiling in this game alongside a strong floor, so he’s going to be a go-to captain play tonight. Complete the WR/QB stack with Justin Herbert in the FLEX and run it back with an affordable Roschon Johnson.

*RB Roschon Johnson, Bears D/ST, RB Austin Ekeler: Johnson has a lot of potential as a pass catcher out of the backfield tonight thanks to QB Tyson Bagent’s tendency to throw near the line of scrimmage along with the Chargers’ weakness to receiving running backs. We’ll work some correlation with the Bears D/ST in the FLEX and run it back with Ekeler on the other side, who should have his best game since returning from his ankle injury.

*RB Austin Ekeler, QB Tyson Bagent, WR DJ Moore: Bit of an odd lineup build here but makes sense from a GPP approach. If the Chargers work with a lead for most of this game, Ekeler should handle 20+ touches. Meanwhile, the Bears would lean pass-heavy on the other side so we’ll run it back with a Bagent/Moore QB/WR stack.

*WR DJ Moore, QB Tyson Bagent, QB Justin Herbert: We saw what sort of upside DJ Moore can bring to the table in week five when he erupted for an 8-230-3 receiving line. If Bagent is more confident in his second NFL start and begins to test the waters in the downfield passing game, Moore could emerge as the optimal captain against a Chargers defense that allows the most FPPG to WRs. We’ll get exposure to two high fantasy floors by rostering both QBs in the FLEX.

*RB D’Onta Foreman, Bears D/ST, RB Austin Ekeler: Similar to the CPTN Johnson stack concept above, just replacing Foreman in the captain slot. Foreman’s multi-touchdown potential keeps him in play as a viable captain candidate.

5-1 Chargers stacks: I don’t foresee a huge blowout, but it remains a possibility. Tyson Bagent is an undrafted rookie QB out of Division II and this will be his first taste of NFL action on the road (his start last week and partial game played in week six were both at home). I don’t think anyone would be too surprised if the Chargers end up winning in blowout fashion so we should be willing to sprinkle some 5-1 Chargers-heavy “smash” builds into GPPs tonight.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Roschon Johnson MORE than 11.5 Receiving Yards

Justin Herbert MORE than 19.5 Fantasy Score

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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