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Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) | 50.5 O/U

BUF: 24.0 Implied Points | CIN: 26.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Joe Mixon - Questionable (seems likely to suit up), TE - Dawson Knox - OUT/IR, RB Damien Harris - OUT/IR, RB Chase Brown - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Bills - 27, Bengals - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bills, 4-2 Bengals

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Josh Allen: We might have the best game of the week slotted in for Sunday Night Football. Josh Allen stands atop the pack among the many viable captain candidates in this AFC showdown. Allen is the QB1 in fantasy this season and has been putting up massive scores over the last month-plus. He has passed for multiple touchdowns AND scored a rushing touchdown in four of his last five games while scoring at least 26.3 FP (including three 31+ FP games). It’s perhaps not an ideal match-up with Cincy ranking 11th in pass DVOA but, in a game with some very real shootout potential, Allen should be the safest floor play on either side. The Bills have also had some extra time to prepare for this game following the “mini bye” (last played 10 days ago on TNF).

WR Stefon Diggs: In what was a down game for Diggs in week eight, he was still targeted 12 times, catching nine passes for 70 yards. His 33.0% target% ranks 4th in the NFL this season and he has laid claim to a 43.5% air yard% (ranks 6th in NFL) as well. Diggs has aligned all over the field, spending 30% of his time on each perimeter while running 40% of plays out of the slot. When he is running routes out of the slot, he will draw an advantageous match-up with Bengals’ slot CB Mike Hilton. Hilton and the Bengals have surrendered the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

WR Ja’Marr Chase: We’re not exactly going against the grain with these top three captain recommendations. QB Joe Burrow’s early season struggles had an obvious impact on Chase’s production as well, but the Bengals passing game has been clicking the last few games. As a result, over the last three games, Chase has racked up 44 targets, 31 receptions, 372 yards, and four touchdowns. Chase’s explosive week five performance (19-15-192-3 receiving line) is pulling a lot of weight there, but his last two games have been nothing to sneeze at either. The target volume has been there for Chase all season, who ranks 3rd in the NFL with a 33.5% target%. The Bills’ defense has suffered some key injuries this season and, lately, they’ve allowed some strong production to opposing WRs. Over the last four weeks, they’re surrendering the 9th most FPPG to WRs.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Joe Burrow: A lingering calf injury was clearly having an impact on Burrow to begin the season but he’s looked much more comfortable and nimble in the pocket across the last three games. He even tacked on a season-high 43 rushing yards against the 49ers last week. He has also connected on eight TD passes over the last three games after having just two TD passes across the first four games of the year. In 23 career home games, Burrow has averaged 297.7 YPG to go along with a 69.5% completion%. The Bills are giving up the 11th most FPPG to QBs over the last four weeks.

RB Joe Mixon: It’s been a ho-hum season for Mixon but now that the Bengals offense is operating more efficiently, that should only lead to more big-game performances and touchdown opportunities. The volume has been rock-solid for Mixon all season, as he is averaging 18.7 touches/gm. He also owns one of the most dominant redzone shares of any NFL RB with a 95.5% team redzone rush%. The Bills can also be beaten on the ground. They check in at 17th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 9th most FPPG to RBs this season. Buffalo has also allowed the 4th most receiving yards to RBs this season so we can expect Mixon to mix in (heh) some decent work as a receiver. He does come into SNF with a “questionable” injury designation but, after logging full practices on Thursday and Friday, it would be a major surprise if he’s inactive tonight. Perhaps folks will shy away from rostering Mixon a bit due to that “Q” tag.

TE Dalton Kincaid: If you’re hunting for a captain candidate who is not named Allen, Burrow, Diggs, or Chase, then Dalton Kincaid might be your man. The rookie’s role has grown drastically over the last two weeks in the wake of the Dawson Knox wrist injury that has landed him on the IR. Kincaid scored his first career touchdown while playing a season-high 84% snap% in the first full game without Knox available last week. He’s also utilized at wideout and runs plenty of routes from the slot receiver position. The match-up also doesn’t get much better. The Bengals rank 29th in TE DVOA and have allowed the most FPPG to the tight end position this season.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Tee Higgins: I don’t usually spotlight $6k+ players in this section, but I believe Higgins deserves a mention for this game. Outside of a big week two performance, Higgins has largely been an afterthought this season. But, again, we have to place some of the blame on Burrow’s early-season inefficiencies. Higgins has also been out or limited the last few weeks due to a rib injury. He sat out week five, returned in week six to play 54% of the snaps, and logged a 67% snap% last week. It’s fair to assume that Higgins will get back to his usual 80+% snap% starting tonight, and if so, he provides significant upside on his $6,600 showdown salary. Higgins may also benefit from Ja’Marr Chase seeing added defensive attention. Higgins runs nearly half of his routes on the right perimeter, and the Bills have allowed the 7th most FPPG to RWRs over the last four weeks.

K Tyler Bass / K Evan McPherson: We’ve got two solid kickers with big legs in this likely high-scoring match-up. Both guys are in play as FLEX values. Bass will likely go somewhat under-owned due to scoring six or fewer fantasy points over the last four games so he may be the preferred kicker due to leverage purposes. Winds won’t be an issue in Cincinnati tonight (< 5 mph).

WR Khalil Shakir: Shakir logged a season-high 65% snap% last week thanks in large part to the fact that Buffalo ran exclusively single tight end sets with Dalton Kincaid being the only healthy TE on the roster. With the extra opportunities, Shakir posted season highs in targets (six), receptions (six), and receiving yards (92) -- good for 15.2 DKFP. The Bills will have TE Quintin Morris back healthy this week, so I’d expect Shakir’s snap rate to tick back down. That said, he should play roughly half of the snaps tonight and he has proven to be a sure-handed target for Josh Allen this season. Shakir has hauled in 93.3% of his targets this season, which is something that NFL QBs remember. He’s still fourth in the pecking order behind Diggs, Davis, and Kincaid, but look for Shakir to continue to carve out a decent role in this prolific Bills passing attack.

TE Irv Smith Jr: Smith has not been nearly as involved as most figured he would be this season. In his five healthy games, he has accounted for no more than 25 receiving yards. But, at a $1,600 price tag, he’s a viable punt since he is technically the TE1 for a quality offense. The Bills have allowed the 6th fewest FPPG to TEs this season but we don’t need much from Smith at this price point to return value.

RB Leonard Fournette: The Bills signed Fournette to their practice squad this past week to shore up their backfield depth. James Cook has only accounted for a 29.2% redzone rush% and Latavius Murray has not been effective as a goal line back when he’s been utilized there. That is a role that Fournette could feasibly take over. We’ll have to make sure Fournette is on the active roster tonight but, if he is, he could be a viable punt play at the stone minimum $200.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

QB Josh Allen (rushing TD)

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dalton Kincaid: Standard CPTN Allen double-stack. While I would heavily favor attaching Diggs to any CPTN Allen lineup, I don’t view it as a must-play stack combination. It’s also a very pricey stack so Diggs OR Kincaid could be interchangeable with WRs Gabe Davis or Khalil Shakir.

*WR Stefon Diggs, QB Josh Allen, WR Khalil Shakir: Diggs has at least 11 targets or multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season. He provides one of the best floor/ceiling combinations among all NFL WRs so he’s a go-to captain option tonight. Complete the WR/QB stack with Allen in the FLEX and save some salary with Shakir. This stack will leave an average salary of $6,233 per remaining player, which is enough for one more stud (Chase or Burrow) or three mid-range players.

*WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Joe Burrow, RB Leonard Fournette (if he’s active): When it comes to upside WR/QB stacks, there is not much separating Chase/Burrow from Diggs/Allen. The Chase/Burrow stack will be a bit cheaper and if we punt with Fournette (again, if he’s active) as a cheap bring-back play, we’ll be left with $7,800/player for the remaining three FLEX positions.

*QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins: Standard CPTN Burrow double-stack. While I’m not necessarily locking in Diggs to any CPTN Allen lineups, I would lock Chase in for any CPTN Burrow lineups. If Burrow ends the night as the optimal captain, Chase is nearly guaranteed to be an optimal FLEX. Whereas if Josh Allen emerges as the optimal captain, Diggs isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be an optimal FLEX (due to Allen’s rushing ability and he can always spread the ball around to other Bills receiving weapons like we saw in week eight). I like Higgins for a solid game tonight but he could be interchangeable with Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith Jr., or even RB Joe Mixon.

*RB Joe Mixon, QB Joe Burrow, K Evan McPherson: A Bengals-heavy stack that should give you exposure to every point scored by Cincy tonight. As noted in his spotlight, the Bills D is giving up plenty of receiving work to RBs, so it’s not too crazy to view Mixon as a “stackable” receiver with Burrow in the FLEX.

*TE Dalton Kincaid, QB Josh Allen, WR Ja’Marr Chase: Kincaid draws a premiere match-up (CIN: most FPPG allowed to TEs) and he’s been an ultra-reliable pass catcher with an 88.2% catch% this season. He has as much touchdown upside as any Bills receiver in this game and he offers some salary relief as a captain play. Of course, we’ll stack him with Allen while splurging on the bring-back play in Ja’Marr Chase. With this stack, we’ll have $5,866/player for the remaining three FLEX plays, which is very manageable.

*WR Tee Higgins, QB Joe Burrow, WR Stefon Diggs + Fade WR Ja’Marr Chase: We’ve only seen it in one game this season but Higgins has major upside, particularly in relation to his $6,600 showdown salary. If he ends the night as the optimal captain, Chase probably does not crack the perfect lineup. Not saying Chase would necessarily have a bad game, just not a good enough game to pay off his five-figure salary. With Higgins being an affordable captain, we can run it back with a premiere bring-back play with Diggs on the other side.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Dalton Kincaid MORE than 4.0 Receptions

Tee Higgins MORE than 54.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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