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Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins | 48 O/U

BUF: 25.5 Implied Points | MIA: 22.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Jaylen Waddle - Questionable (not expected to play), RB Raheem Mostert - Questionable (not expected to play), RB Salvon Ahmed - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Bills - 27, Dolphins - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bills, 4-2 Dolphins

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Tyreek Hill: It’s a difficult match-up but with the AFC East title on the line and WR Jaylen Waddle looking doubtful to play, Tyreek will have to have another monster game today if the Dolphins want to win this high-stakes regular season finale. When these teams met back in week four, the Bills held Hill to a season-low in receptions (three) and yards (58). Buffalo has ranked 9th in pass DVOA, 4th in WR1 DVOA, and they’ve surrendered the seventh fewest FPPG to WRs this season. But Tyreek Hill is as match-up proof as it gets in the NFL and it bodes well that the Dolphins are at home. QB Tua Tagovailoa has played better in general at home which, in turn, has led to positive home splits for Hill. In seven home games, Hill is averaging 131.3 YPG and 27.3 DKFP/gm. With the (likely) absence of Waddle as well as RB Raheem Mostert, it would be a mild surprise if Hill isn’t force-fed at least 10 targets tonight.

QB Josh Allen: There are very few scenarios where Josh Allen doesn’t at least crack the optimal lineup as a FLEX play tonight but he’ll clearly be one of the safest captain selections as well. On top of what he provides as a passer, Josh Allen has sky-high touchdown equity as a runner. Allen has scored 15 total rushing TDs this season, including eight rushing TDs in the last five games alone. Allen has also had the Dolphins’ number since entering the league and he has averaged a whopping 34.53 DKFP/gm against Miami over the last two years (four games). He amassed five total TDs (four passing, one rushing) and 337 total yards against the Dolphins back in week four, which netted him 39.5 DKFP. The Dolphins will also be without one of their top cornerbacks in Xavien Howard (foot/out) which is just one more positive checkmark in favor of Allen and the Bills.

RB De’Von Achane: It looks like we’ll get our chance to see what Achane can do as an uncontested RB1 for the first time this season. RB Raheem Mostert, who is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the NFL lead in non-passing touchdowns with 21 scores this season, is unlikely to suit up due to a knee injury. That opens the door for the electric rookie to take over a guaranteed workload and, presumably, most or all of the redzone/goal line carries. Achane has been a monster on a per-touch basis this season, averaging a whopping 8.0 yards per carry, and he has proven to be a lethal receiver out of the backfield as well. The sledding won’t be incredibly easy against a Bills defense that has allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs over their last four games. However, the Bills are a mediocre 18th in rush DVOA and Achane racked up 120 total yards with two touchdowns on just 11 touches against Buffalo back in week four. The Dolphins will still get backup RB Jeff Wilson Jr. involved but if Achane handles 20+ touches, I find it difficult to imagine him posting anything resembling a dud performance tonight.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Stefon Diggs: I’m not sure there’s been a stud fantasy-relevant player that has taken a steeper nosedive than Diggs has over the last couple of months. After providing one of the safest floors at the WR position over the first nine games of the season, Diggs has gone on to score single-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games. Unless there is something the Bills aren’t telling us, Diggs isn’t dealing with any sort of lingering injury and he’s still commanding a solid chunk of the Bills’ target share. Nonetheless, the results just haven’t been there for Diggs lately. But that should also drive down his ownership tonight, perhaps making him the biggest leverage play in this game. Now, I’m not saying he’ll be like 10-15% owned. Very few core players go that low-owned on a single-game slate. But perhaps he’ll be around 35% rostered as opposed to 60+% owned if he was still producing the same sort of numbers he had over the first half of the season. Diggs will draw shadow coverage from the Dolphins’ top cornerback Jalen Ramsey. It’s a concerning match-up but, at the same time, Ramsey is ranked as the No. 25 overall cornerback in the NFL this season (per PFF.com) and Diggs will also escape Ramsey’s coverage when he runs out of the slot. Diggs has run 35% of his routes out of the slot and Ramsey has traveled into the slot on just 1% of routes covered this season. And, while the Dolphins didn’t have Ramsey available when these teams met in week four, Diggs did drop his biggest performance of the season in that game, catching 6-of-7 targets for 120 yards and three scores. We’ll see if Diggs can get back to his elite production ways in a high-stakes primetime showdown this evening.

RB James Cook: The production hasn’t been there for Cook the last couple of weeks but the key takeaway is that he’s still receiving strong volume. Ever since the Bills fired OC Ken Dorsey and Joe Brady took over offensive play calling in week 11, James Cook has been much more of a focal point in the Buffalo offense. Cook was lucky to get a dozen touches in a game over the first 10 weeks of the season, but since the offensive play-calling change, he is averaging 21 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. The Dolphins have allowed the 10th most FPPG to RBs over their last four games, including 52.5 receiving YPG to the position in that span. QB Josh Allen’s involvement as a runner near the goal line does take a huge chunk out of Cook’s touchdown equity, but any RB with 20+ touch potential needs to be considered in a single-game format.

WR Gabe Davis: There may not be a more feast-or-famine offensive player in the NFL than Gabe Davis. He can either lay a goose egg or explode for 100+ yards and a score. So, while we can never feel “safe” about clicking on Gabe Davis’ name in our lineups, he’s the perfect GPP candidate in single-game DFS formats. With Stefon Diggs drawing shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey when he runs routes on the perimeter, Davis will draw the much more favorable match-up with Eli Apple (No. 103 ranked CB per PFF.com) on the outside (Davis: 83% PerimeterRoute%).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Jason Sanders / K Tyler Bass: Both offenses should be able to move the ball with success tonight and both kickers will be perfectly serviceable FLEX plays. Sanders has averaged 10.6 FPPG at home this season and Bass has been better on the road where he has averaged 9.0 FPPG. Not that there’s any way to predict field goal volume, but the 48-point over/under in this game is the highest total in the NFL this week. Winds will be around 10 mph in Miami tonight, but ultimately it’s not a major concern.

WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.: I was very close to putting Cedrick Wilson Jr. in the “flex plays & leverage captain options” section above. If you want to get a little different, I do think Wilson has some low-end captain appeal. Taking that route would easily allow you to fit in three or four studs into the FLEX. Wilson’s appeal in this game stems from his cheap price point and elevated WR2 status in the (likely) absence of WR Jaylen Waddle. With Waddle out last week, Wilson went on to play a season-high 86% snap rate. He only saw four targets, resulting in two receptions for 27 yards and a score. But, more notably, he ran a route on all 38 of Tua Tagovailoa’s dropbacks, which was two more routes than even the amount that Tyreek Hill ran. As mentioned in Tyreek’s spotlight, the Bills check in at 4th in WR1 DVOA, but they’re much more vulnerable against WR2s (26th in WR2 DVOA), which bodes well for Wilson’s overall upside.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: The Dolphins offense has supported multiple RBs throughout the season and Wilson will handle an elevated role with Raheem Mostert (likely) out. Rookie De’Von Achane also hasn’t been the perfect picture of health this season so it’s possible that Miami won’t give him a bellcow workload.

TE Durham Smythe: Despite playing well over 70% of the snaps in most games this season on a very potent offense, Smythe has been a notoriously low-floor fantasy play. He has been a bit more productive recently, catching all 12 of his targets for 142 yards across the last three games. The Bills have allowed +45% more FPPG to TEs when playing on the road and if Smythe garners a handful of targets, he could end up being one of the better value plays in this game.

WR Braxton Berrios: He’ll be a volatile play but Berrios should get in on around half of the snaps as the Dolphins’ WR3. Not that we can count on a repeat performance, but Berrios’ most productive game of the season came in week four against the Bills (6/43/1 + 11-yard rush, 17.4 DKFP).

Sunday Night Football TD Call

RB De’Von Achane

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tua Tagovailoa, TE Durham Smythe: Hill is no stranger to breaking slates and I’m not sure how you fade him in a single-game format with the division on the line. Tagovailoa wasn’t spotlighted in this newsletter but if Tyreek ends up as the optimal captain, Tua likely ends up as an optimal FLEX play, so we’ll maintain correlation there. To save some salary, we’ll work in a cheap Dolphins pass catcher with TE Durham Smythe, who should have a safer floor than usual with WR Jaylen Waddle out of the picture tonight. Average salary per remaining player: $6,733.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis: Standard CPTN Allen double-stack. Diggs has been terrible, by his standards, lately and Gabe Davis is the ultimate boom-or-bust play. So this stack isn’t without some risk and I don’t think you have to double-stack with Allen at captain. Nonetheless, we’ll give it a try here. Other Bills pass catchers to mix into CPTN Allen lineups (in order of preference): TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Khalil Shakir, RB James Cook, and TE Dawson Knox. Average salary per remaining player: $5,433.

*RB De’Von Achane, K Jason Sanders, QB Josh Allen: Expectations are high for Achane tonight as he shouldn’t split as many touches with Jeff Wilson Jr. as he would with Raheem Mostert (likely out). We can work some correlation by rostering Miami kicker Jason Sanders with CPTN Achane and roll with a premiere bring-back play in QB Josh Allen. Average salary per remaining player: $6,833.

*WR Stefon Diggs, QB Josh Allen, WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.: Diggs should fly under the radar, both as a general FLEX play and as a captain tonight. It’s reasonable to want to avoid him due to his lack of production over the last couple of months. But it’s still Stefon Diggs we’re talking about here and this game could trend toward a shootout. Complete the WR/QB stack with Allen in the FLEX and, to save some salary, we can roll with temporary WR2 Cedrick Wilson Jr. on the bring-back. Average salary per remaining player: $6,433.

*RB James Cook, K Tyler Bass, WR Tyreek Hill: Similar concept as the CPTN Achane stack, just flipping teams. We’re correlating a starting RB with his team’s kicker and spending up on a high-end bring-back play in Tyreek Hill. As discussed in his spotlighted segment, Cook’s role has been elevated ever since Joe Brady took over play-calling responsibilities and we’ve seen him explode for some big games in recent weeks. Another game with 20+ touches would open the door for Cook’s optimal captain potential. Average salary per remaining player: $7,333.

*WR Gabe Davis, QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook: Bills-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every touchdown scored by Buffalo tonight. Throw in K Tyler Bass in a 4-2 Bills-heavy lineup to secure all of their offensive points. Average salary per remaining player: $6,833 ($7,850 if we go with Bass for the fourth player).

*WR Cedrick Wilson Jr + All the studs: Cedrick Wilson Jr. gets another week in the role of Miami’s WR2 and he’s too cheap for his potential upside. The Bills have been stout against WR1s (4th in WR1 DVOA) but they’ve been much less effective against opposing WR2s (26th in WR2 DVOA). With Wilson’s $6,600 captain salary, you’ll be left with an average of $8,680 for the remaining five FLEX plays -- which is plenty of leftover salary to load up on three or four stud plays.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyreek Hill MORE than 10.5 Receiving Targets

Josh Allen MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!