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Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at New York Jets | 41.5 O/U

KC: 24.8 Implied Points | NYJ: 16.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Related Injuries: QB Aaron Rodgers - Out/IR, WR Richie James Jr. - Out/IR

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 27, Jets - 13

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chiefs, 5-1 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Patrick Mahomes: Realistically, Mahomes should be 100% owned in showdown contests tonight outside of “YOLO” lineups that are just looking to be massively contrarian. Are the Jets a dream match-up? Not exactly. But they’re also underperforming up to this point, ranking 24th in pass DVOA and allowing the 6th-highest completion percentage. Also, it’s Patrick Mahomes. I don’t see an avenue where he doesn’t land in the optimal lineup, either as a FLEX play or captain.

TE Travis Kelce: Tight ends have flourished against this Jets' defense. They’re allowing the 3rd most FPPG to the position with an average stat line of 5.3 receptions, 56.3 YPG, and 1.0 TD/gm. After missing week one, Kelce played 64% of snaps in week two but dropped to a 61% snap% last week. However, that is entirely due to the blowout situation over Chicago, and even Mahomes played only 73% of snaps in a cakewalk 41-10 Chiefs victory. The main point is that Kelce is still receiving plenty of looks when he’s on the field and has been targeted on 30.9% of his routes run. Mahomes and Kelce should be in most/all of your lineups this evening.

WR Rashee Rice: Do yourself a favor and stash Rashee Rice on your season-long fantasy football bench if he’s available. We never truly know who is going to receive consistent targets in this Chiefs offense, outside of Travis Kelce, but Rice seems to be emerging as a preferred option for Mahomes. Rice was a highly productive receiver at SMU and compiled a senior season that consisted of 96 receptions, 1,355 yards (112.9 YPG), and 10 TDs. The Chiefs used a premium pick on Rice by taking him as the 55th overall selection in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. He recently played a season-high 51% snap% last week and has been targeted on 36.8% of his routes run, which is a team-high. WR Kadarius Toney did miss most of last week’s game, playing just three snaps before getting injured, and Toney will be back in the fold tonight. It will be interesting to see how much Toney’s availability affects Rice’s snaps but I’d still expect a solid snap rate for Rice in this game. Rice has also run about 70% of his routes out of the slot, which happens to be where the Jets have been weakest against opposing WRs (9th most FPPG allowed to slot WRs). He’ll set up as an appealing FLEX play and a very intriguing contrarian captain play

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Garrett Wilson: It’s hard to love anything about a Zach Wilson-led Jets offense and the rumors of tensions getting high in the New York locker room are completely understandable. The awful QB play is unfortunate for an elite WR talent like Garrett Wilson, but that still has not stopped Wilson from putting up three solid fantasy performances. Wilson owns a hefty 31.0% target% and has accounted for 42.2% of the Jets' total air yards. One thing we can also feel extremely confident in is the fact that the Jets are going to have to keep their foot on the gas in order to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense. All-in-all, Garrett Wilson is the one Jets player that we can have a moderate amount of confidence in tonight.

RB Isiah Pacheco: Much like the WRs, the Chiefs’ backfield is always a very fluid situation but Pacheco is the primary guy on early downs and he’ll see some solid volume in a game that the Chiefs should win easily. Pacheco ranks 5th among NFL RBs averaging 3.2 yards before contact per attempt and ranks 4th among NFL RBs in redzone rush attempts with a 66.7% redzone team rush%. He has also seen a higher target rate this season, which is always a nice bonus. It’s not a great match-up against the Jets, who rank 8th in rush DVOA. But the defense will constantly have to respect Mahomes and the passing game, so Pacheco shouldn’t see many stacked boxes.

WR Skyy Moore: Once again, trying to predict which Chiefs’ WR will pop off in any given week is an exercise in futility. With that caveat out of the way, Skyy Moore is the only Kansas City WR who has played at least 58% of snaps in all three games. The Chiefs also align Moore all over the field -- 44% slot%, 33% RWR%, and 23% LWR%, so he isn’t necessarily always locked into poor cornerback match-ups.

Kansas City D/ST: If you have eyes and have watched any amount of Jets offensive plays this season, you’ll know that this will be a prime spot for the Chiefs’ defense. The Chiefs D/ST heads into this game with back-to-back double-digit fantasy scores. Kansas City is also one of the more aggressive defensive units that have blitzed on 35.7% of QB dropbacks (6th highest). Look for them to make Zach Wilson uncomfortable all game and force him into errant throws.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Harrison Butker: The Chiefs can rarely be slowed down by anyone but the Jets’ defense is good enough to where they should force multiple Kansas City drives to stall out within field goal range. Winds won’t be problematic in New York tonight and we should expect a strong fantasy score out of Butker.

WR Allen Lazard: Up to this point, the only Jets player we’ve spotlighted has been Garrett Wilson. It’s a testament to just how unreliable every other DFS-relevant Jets player is. But at a mere $4,000, Lazard has some potential to be an optimal FLEX play. He has played on 97% and 94% of snaps in the last two games and ranks second on the team to G. Wilson in target% (18.3%) and air yard% (37.2%). The ceiling is probably around five catches for 50 yards and maybe a touchdown but that’s “fine” for the price tag and it’s not as if we can roster six Chiefs players (if DraftKings allowed it, I’d be very tempted to do so). That all being said, this game opened with the Chiefs being -10 point favorites and has since been bet down to eight points, which really isn’t massive, so the sharp bettors and oddsmakers are expecting the Jets to at least somewhat hang around in this one. If that’s the case, a guy like Lazard could be a reason why.

WR Justin Watson: Watson is a boom-or-bust deep threat who leads the team with a 31.3% air yard% despite receiving just a 10.6% target%. Watson’s 22.7-yard aDOT understandably leads the team, with the next-closest guy being WR Richie James Jr. (16.3-yard aDOT), who is currently on the IR with a knee injury. James has just three targets on the season but it’s just one less factor standing in Watson’s way of being the go-to deep threat for a potent Chiefs’ offense.

TE Tyler Conklin: Conklin will be on the field for most of the offensive snaps and easily leads all Jets TEs with an 80% snap%. His 69 (nice) routes run are third on the team behind only Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard and he has just one fewer target than Lazard (who is 2nd in team targets) on the season. The Chiefs also rank 27th in DVOA versus tight ends. Again, in a game where the Jets will have to stay aggressive, the primary receiving targets can be expected to see some solid volume. A handful of catches with 40-60 yards and an off-chance at a touchdown is a realistic expectation for Conklin and he’s dirt cheap on DraftKings with a $1,600 showdown salary. Like anyone else, I don’t love much about the Jets tonight, but Conklin will be one Jet that I’m going to roll out in the FLEX quite a bit and he makes the process of locking in the Mahomes/Kelce combo much easier.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

TE Travis Kelce (crazy, I know)

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Skyy Moore: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack. I’m not sure how you play Mahomes and not play Kelce, but the WR option can be interchangeable between Moore, Rice, Watson, Toney, and Valdes-Scantling.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Tyler Conklin: You get the idea. Stacking Kelce + Mahomes is not groundbreaking and will not be unique in showdown contests tonight, but it is expensive. We’ll get the cheap “bring-back” Jets player in with Conklin and still have an average of $6,500 to spend on the remaining three FLEX plays.

*WR Rashee Rice, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Garrett Wilson: The underlying data tells us that Rice could be emerging as the Chiefs’ WR1. While there is still plenty of uncertainty about that proposition, any receiver who has a chance at solid target volume from Patrick Mahomes is going to possess upside. Of course, we’ll complete the WR/QB stack with Mahomes and, given Rice’s affordable price tag, we can easily roll with Garrett Wilson aka “the most trustworthy Jets offensive player,” as a premium bring-back play.

WR Garrett Wilson, QB Zach Wilson, RB Isiah Pacheco: Just seeing Zach Wilson in a lineup is enough to make any DFS player grimace with disgust, but we can’t completely abandon traditional showdown strategy. If Garrett Wilson ends the night as the optimal play, then his QB will likely have a decent enough* game and qualify as an optimal FLEX play. Then we’ll run it back with Pacheco on the other side for correlation purposes (Chiefs lead big so they run the ball a lot forcing the Jets to pass a lot in return). Only roll with this stack as a contrarian GPP approach.

*RB Isiah Pacheco, QB Patrick Mahomes, K Harrison Butker: Chiefs-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every Kansas City point scored tonight.

*Chiefs D/ST + four Chiefs players in the FLEX: When D/STs end up as the optimal captain play, it’s usually due to a blowout so, if you’re looking to roll with the always cheeky D/ST at captain, you’ll want to fill out the lineup with four more KC players to construct a 5-1 Chiefs “smash” build.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Travis Kelce MORE than 0.5 Pass + Rush + Rec TDs

Garrett Wilson MORE than 4.5 Receptions

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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