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Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Green Bay Packers | 43 O/U

KC: 24.0 Implied Points | GB: 19.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Aaron Jones - OUT, WR Jayden Reed - Questionable (trending toward playing), RB Jerick McKinnon - OUT, WR Dontayvion Wicks - Questionable, TE Luke Musgrave - OUT/IR, RB Emanuel Wilson - OUT/IR, TE Josiah Degura - Questionable, WR Mecole Hardman Jr. - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 23, Packers - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Packers

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has not been lighting it up this season like we’re used to seeing. He ranks 7th among NFL QBs in FPPG, and Kansas City’s defensive improvements have led to fewer shootouts that force Mahomes into a pass-heavy game script. The Packers' defense has also allowed the 9th fewest FPPG to QBs and 17% less FPPG to QBs when they’re at home (last nine games). With all of that said, it’s nearly unfathomable to fade Mahomes in a showdown format, and he’s a clear captain option in this game. BUT, due to his slate-high salary, Mahomes could work out better as a FLEX play tonight, and if you’re entering many lineups in MME contests, it’s far from a crazy notion to fade him in a few spots.

TE Travis Kelce: Kelce remains the TE1 in FPPG, but, much like Patrick Mahomes, this has not been his most dominant season by any stretch. Nonetheless, Kelce still leads the team, by a long shot, in target rate (22.2%), and he’s hauling in 79.5% of his targets this season. The Packers also rank 22nd in TE DVOA, so it’s a match-up that Kelce can exploit.

QB Jordan Love: Love has been on a nice hot streak as of late. Over his last three games, he has passed for 879 yards (293 YPG) and seven touchdowns against two interceptions. He also has some moderate rushing potential and has averaged 20.1 rush YPG on the season. The Chiefs’ D has been stout this season, specifically against the pass where they rank 3rd in pass DVOA. But the Packers will need to stay aggressive through the air for this entire game and, with RB Aaron Jones sidelined, there will be even more emphasis put on Love and the passing game.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Isiah Pacheco: Following a three-game lull, Pacheco put up 25.9 DKFP in week 12, punching in two touchdowns on the ground while catching 5-of-5 targets for 34 yards. He also played a season-high 78% snap%. It’s worth noting that Jerick McKinnon (groin/out) was out last week and will miss a second consecutive game tonight. McKinnon typically plays around 30% of the snaps and gets his work in on third downs, two-minute drills, and other passing situations. His absence in week 12 led to a season-high in routes ran for Pacheco. Pacheco has logged at least 15 rush attempts in seven of the previous nine games so now that he’s expected to get most of the RB pass-catching work, he becomes a well-rounded do-it-all back. It’s also easier to run on the Packers D than pass on them and the Chiefs do step in as five-point road favorites. Pacheco is a strong FLEX play for this evening and deserves some captain consideration as well.

WR Rashee Rice: It was a true breakout game for Rice in Vegas last week. He brought in a touchdown while reaching season-highs in targets (10), receptions (8), and yards (107). Mahomes targeted Rice on exactly 40% of the routes that he ran. The Chiefs have been desperate for a receiver to emerge from their ragtag wide receiver corps. Rice has been trending in the right direction for a couple of months now and he’s been a sure-handed receiver, having caught 78.6% of his targets this season. We now know that he has a legitimate fantasy ceiling and he should be Mahomes’ most targeted WR in this game.

WR Jayden Reed: (Note: Reed is questionable for this game but “intends to play”) It looks as if Reed’s chest injury isn’t going to be serious enough to keep him out of tonight’s primetime match-up. The top three receivers for Green Bay (J. Reed, C. Watson, R. Doubs) are all very close in price and have all displayed about the same fantasy ceiling this season. So, it is splitting hairs a bit when choosing just one of these guys to spotlight, but Reed will stand out as the most favorable option. As mentioned in his write-up above, QB Jordan Love has been quite sharp over his last three games and Reed has been a key part of his success. Reed has caught a touchdown in each of the last three games and, in that stretch, his 18.1% target%, while not overly impressive, has led the team. Reed also runs the majority (78%) of his routes out of the slot, which is where the Chiefs secondary can be exploited.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Justin Watson: I’m not a big fan of Watson’s $5,200 salary, but that should keep his ownership in check. Watson operates as the deep threat in the Chiefs offense (18.4-yard aDOT) and he leads the team with a 26.2% air yard% this season. He has played at least 57% of the snaps in each of the last three games and, while Mahomes’ deep passing metrics are down this season, Watson is still a threat to land in the optimal with just one or two big plays.

K Harrison Butker / K Anders Carlson: Kicking conditions aren’t perfect in Green Bay tonight (temps around freezing with ~10 mph winds) but both kickers remain FLEX-worthy options.

Chiefs D/ST: It would be irresponsible to not at least consider a D/ST in any showdown contest at this point. A D/ST is cracking the optimal at a high rate in these primetime showdown slates this season. The Chiefs D/ST gets the preferred nod here. They’ve scored double-digit fantasy points in 6-of-11 games this season and get the added benefit of not having to face Patrick Mahomes.

TE Tucker Kraft: With TE Luke Musgrave landing on the IR prior to week 12, Kraft takes over as the Packers’ TE1 and he logged a 96% snap% in the Thanksgiving Day match-up with the Lions last week. He only received two targets but he did bring in a touchdown and he tied for a team lead with 30 routes run in that game. The Chiefs have been stout against TEs, ranking 7th in TE DVOA and allowing the 5th fewest FPPG to the position. But if Kraft is going to play almost 100% of the snaps and runs a route on nearly every Jordan Love dropback, then he’s going to have plenty of appeal at his $4,200 price tag.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: He’ll be the clear RB2 for the Chiefs tonight but, even with McKinnon out last week, CEH only played 20% of the snaps and produced just five yards on three carries. Still, he could always luckbox a touchdown and may be a bit more involved this week with no McKinnon.

WR Skyy Moore: Moore has not done much this season but he is fourth on the team in targets and has played at least 51% of the snaps in 11-of-12 games this season. When you’re on the field with Patrick Mahomes for the majority of offensive plays, there’s always a chance at some big catches. He’s cheap enough at $2,400 to be worth a dart throw.

RB Patrick Taylor: Only handled four touches last week but his 27 snaps (48% snap%) were just two fewer than AJ Dillon. If Dillon struggles, as he has on many occasions this season, Taylor could be given more opportunities.

TE Noah Gray: He’s usually good for two or three catches per game and is another “luckbox TD” candidate.

WR Dontayvion Wicks: (Note: Wicks is questionable to play due to a knee injury) Wicks was held out last week and may not be able to suit up tonight. However, he did get three limited practices in this week and, if he’s active, his $800 salary is certainly too cheap. He’s the clear WR4 behind Reed, Watson, and Doubs, but in the four games between weeks eight and 11, Wicks played at least 32% of the snaps and saw 4+ targets in each game. We don’t need much out of him at this price tag and he’d open up plenty of roster flexibility. If Wicks is ruled out, WR Malik Heath will take over as the WR4. Heath caught 4-of-4 targets for 46 yards last week but played just 11 snaps (20% snap%) so he was pretty fortunate to see that many targets on such a limited snap share.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

RB Isiah Pacheco

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Rashee Rice: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack featuring his two most-targeted pass catchers. Other (more volatile) receivers to mix into CPTN Mahomes stacks (in order of preference): WR Justin Watson, WR Skyy Moore, TE Noah Gray, WR Kadarius Toney, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Dontayvion Wicks: Green Bay has allowed 51% more FPPG to TEs when they’re at home and check in at 22nd in TE DVOA, so it’s not a bad spot for a big Kelce game. We’ll complete the stack with Mahomes in the FLEX and, since Kelce/Mahomes are the two most expensive players, we’ll save some salary with the Wicks bring-back punt play (as long as he’s active, of course). This will leave a manageable $6,366/player for the remaining three FLEX spots.

*QB Jordan Love, WR Jayden Reed, WR Romeo Doubs: Standard CPTN Love double-stack. Love has looked sharp lately and should be able to support multiple receivers in this one. Other receivers to mix into CPTN Love stacks (in order of preference): WR Christian Watson, TE Tyler Kraft, WR Dontayvion Wicks (if he’s active), WR Malik Heath (if Wicks is out).

*RB Isiah Pacheco, QB Patrick Mahomes, K Harrison Butker: Chiefs-heavy stack that should give you exposure to every Kansas City point scored. I also like adding the Chiefs D/ST onto this stack (or in Butker’s place).

*WR Rashee Rice, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB AJ Dillon: It’ll be tough for Rice to follow up his big 10/8/107/1 target/receiving line from last week, but he does seem to be the WR1 in this offense and should only compete with Travis Kelce for the team-lead in targets tonight. Stack with Mahomes and, while he wasn’t spotlighted in this newsletter, AJ Dillon makes a worthy bring-back play since he has a clear pathway to heavy volume with RB Aaron Jones out.

*WR Jayden Reed, QB Jordan Love, TE Travis Kelce: Reed rides in on a three-game touchdown streak and he has been the first read out of the slot on many of Jordan Love’s dropbacks. He also won’t have to face top Chiefs perimeter corner L’Jarius Sneed much, if at all, in this game. Reed won’t break the bank at captain so we can afford Kelce as a premium bring-back play for this stack.

4-2 Packers-Heavy Stacks: My score prediction for this one is Chiefs - 23, Packers - 17, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers pull off the upset at home and win by a similar score. Most lineups will consist of 4-2 Chiefs-heavy builds and 3-3 balanced builds, so rolling with some 4-2 Packers-heavy lineups will offer some nice leverage.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Isiah Pacheco MORE than 19.5 Receiving Yards

Jordan Love MORE than 219.5 Pass Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!