Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top DFS Offers 10/8/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $300 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) | 45 O/U

DAL: 20.8 Implied Points | SF: 24.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell - OUT, TE Peyton Hendershot - OUT

Score Prediction: DAL - 22, SF - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 49ers, 4-2 Cowboys

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Christian McCaffrey: We’ve got a stellar SNF match-up lined up tonight! CMC and the 49ers offense will face their toughest test to date with the Cowboys and their top-ranked (DVOA) defense coming to town. The Cowboys have allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs this season but their 12th-ranked rush DVOA suggests some regression is due. Also, it’s CMC. The man has scored a touchdown (four last week) in 13 consecutive games and his 42.3% Opportunity% (% of team’s rush attempts + targets) ranks 1st in the NFL. The sledding won’t come easy tonight but McCaffrey is about as match-up proof as it gets in the NFL and is an obvious captain candidate even at his slate-high $11,800 salary ($17,700 CPT salary).

WR CeeDee Lamb: Lamb’s 22.2% target share is down a bit this season but some blowout game scripts have allowed the Cowboys to spread it around a bit more when they do go to the air. His target% and 30.9% air yard% still leads the team and, in a match-up against a premiere opponent, we should see Lamb become a significant focal point of the Cowboys' passing game, especially if they’re playing either from behind or in a neutral game script. Lamb, who has run 72% of plays out of the slot, draws the most favorable match-up against the 49ers’ slot corner Isaiah Oliver -- San Francisco has given up the 10th most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

WR Brandon Aiyuk: Despite owning a long 16-yard aDOT, which leads the team, Aiyuk has brought in 85% of his targets on this season. The Purdy to Aiyuk connection has been strong and Aiyuk leads all 49ers receivers with a 29.4% target% per route run. Even with star CB Trevon Diggs out for the remainder of the season, the Cowboys still boast one of the best secondaries in football and head into week five ranking 1st in pass DVOA. That said, Aiyuk should face CB DaRon Bland more than any other 49ers WR, which represents the most favorable (49ers) WR/CB match-up.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Tony Pollard: The 49ers have allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs this season which may lead folks to avoid Pollard in showdown contests tonight. However, the 49ers check in at 23rd in rush DVOA so their run defense may not be as stout as some of the numbers would indicate. The 49ers have also allowed 6.3 receptions/gm (5th most) to RBs this season. Pollard has seen at least three targets in every game this season, including a season-high eight targets in week two, so he can certainly do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield. The entire Cowboys offensive line is also expected to be intact for the first time this season which clearly bodes well for Pollard’s outlook tonight.

QB Brock Purdy: We’re a quarter of the way into the season and the NFL’s leader in passer rating is not Patrick Mahomes, not Josh Allen, not Tua Tagovailoa… it’s Mr. Brock Purdy with a 115.1 passer rating. He may not be the flashiest QB in the league but he is efficient (72.3% comp%, ranks 3rd) and has been picking up some big gains through the air, ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards per attempt (9.1) and 3rd in yards per completion (12.6). Purdy will be up against an outstanding Cowboys defense but he has maybe the best all-around receiving group at his disposal with an athletic downfield target in Brandon Aiyuk, a YAC monster in Deebo Samuel, a premiere receiving back in Christian McCaffrey, and a big play tight end in George Kittle.

TE Jake Ferguson: There are tough DvP match-ups across the board in this game and tight end is no different. The 49ers have allowed the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs this season, however, Ferguson has been heavily involved in the Cowboys' game plan and trails only CeeDee Lamb for the team lead in targets and receptions and he leads the Dallas receivers with a 30.1% target% per route run. Ferguson has either caught a touchdown or received seven targets in every game this season and he’s been Dak’s go-to redzone target based on his team-leading 32.3% RZ target%. Solid receiving and touchdown upside with Ferguson tonight and he won’t break the bank at $5,000.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Jake Moody / K Brandon Aubrey: Two good offenses going up against two good defenses could lead to plenty of drives stalling within field goal range. These have been two of the better kickers in fantasy with Aubrey securing double-digit points in all four games and Moody scoring 12+ FP in 3-of-4 games. Both kickers set up as solid FLEX plays with the only issue being those 10-15 mph winds blowing in San Fran tonight.

49ers D/ST / Cowboys D/ST: It’s never an exciting option but both defenses should be firmly in play tonight. If I had to side with only one, I’d take the Cowboys D/ST. They’re $600 cheaper than 49ers D/ST, they’ve forced a turnover on 23.3% of opponent drives (ranks 3rd), and they’re tied for 6th in the NFL in sacks.

RB Rico Dowdle: Dowdle has some showdown value as the Cowboys' backup RB. He was dealing with a hip injury this week but has since shed his injury designation heading into SNF by logging back-to-back full practices on Thursday and Friday. Dowdle has had seven redzone touches this season and doesn’t necessarily need a Pollard injury to pick up some valuable touches. As mentioned in Pollard’s write-up, this Cowboys O-line is fully intact for the first time this season and the 49ers have quietly ranked 23rd in rush DVOA.

RB Jordan Mason: There are minimal injury impacts tonight but one noteworthy absence will be backup 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell. Mason will operate as the backup to Christian McCaffery and has a decent chance to play 20-30% of snaps.

TE Luke Schoonmaker: TE Peyton Hendershot will miss his second consecutive game. With Hendershot sidelined last week, Schoonmaker logged a 56% snap% and saw three targets. He didn’t catch any of those targets but did rank 5th on the team in pass routes run for the week. The floor is zero with Schoonmaker but these random tight ends often have a funny way of having an impact in primetime games. Schoonmaker is priced at the stone minimum of $200 so it’s a low-risk investment that would allow you to jam in plenty of the studs in this match-up.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

WR Brandon Aiyuk

(CMC TD call would be too easy, right?)

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Brock Purdy, K Jake Moody: 49ers-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every 49ers offensive point scored tonight.

*WR CeeDee Lamb, QB Dak Prescott, WR Brandon Aiyuk: The 49ers are vulnerable to slot WRs (Lamb: 72% slot%) and the Cowboys will need to stay aggressive through the air in this game. A big game could be brewing for Lamb tonight so we’ll try him out at captain here, complete the WR/QB stack with Dak, and run it back with a high-end option like Aiyuk on the other side.

*WR Brandon Aiyuk, QB Brock Purdy, WR CeeDee Lamb: Very similar stack as above, just mixing teams around. Aiyuk has been an air yard hog in his two healthy games this season and he’ll draw the most favorable coverage (among 49ers WRs) from DaRon Bland. Stack with Purdy and run it back with Lamb.

*RB Tony Pollard, RB Christian McCaffrey, TE Luke Schoonmaker: As touched on, the 49ers run defense may not be as stout as some of the surface stats would indicate based on their 23rd rush DVOA ranking, and they give up plenty of receptions to RBs, so Pollard should land firmly on the captain radar tonight. We’ll go with the Luke Schoonmaker punt play in the FLEX so we can also jam in CMC on the other side and still have an average of $7,566 for the remaining three FLEX plays.

*QB Brock Purdy, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel: Standard CPTN Purdy double-stack. I’ll be locking in Aiyuk with any CPTN Purdy lineups, but Samuel could be interchangeable with George Kittle or even CMC if you’re comfortable with having $5,233 left per remaining player in that specific lineup build.

*TE Jake Ferguson, QB Dak Prescott, RB Christian McCaffrey: The 49ers are stout against TEs but Ferguson has been heavily involved in the redzone and the Cowboys rank 10th in tight end target%. Stack him with Dak and, thanks to Ferguson’s affordable captain salary, we can easily fit CMC in as a premiere FLEX play.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tony Pollard MORE than 56.5 Rush Yards

CeeDee Lamb + Brandon Aiyuk MORE than 128.5 Receiving Yards (Combo)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

hu