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Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants | 44.5 O/U

DAL: 23.8 Implied Points | NYG: 20.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: TE Darren Waller - Questionable (Expected to play), WR Wandale Robinson - Doubtful, RB Ronald Jones II - OUT

Score Prediction: DAL - 27, NYG - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Cowboys, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Giants, 5-1 Cowboys

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Tony Pollard: Fantasy fiends asked for it, and we got it -- Tony Pollard heads into the 2023 season as the Cowboys' featured back. Despite operating in a committee with Zeke Elliott in 2022, Pollard still racked up 1,106 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 394 receiving yards, and 12 total touchdowns. Thanks to his elusiveness and big-play ability, he led all NFL running backs in yards after contact per attempt last season. Until another RB emerges or the Cowboys sign a free agent, Pollard should be locked in for 20+ touches per game. He’ll take on a Giants defense that allowed the second-most rushing yards per attempt (5.3) last season. Pollard offers a strong floor and huge ceiling, making him a prime captain candidate for Sunday Night Football.

WR CeeDee Lamb: It’ll be interesting to see how the Cowboys’ offense operates now that OC Kellen Moore is now with the Chargers and HC Mike McCarthy now calling the plays on offense. Lamb should continue to operate as the clear top option in the passing game after a 175-target 2022 season, which represented a stout 28.6% target%. Lamb aligned in the slot for 62% of the time last season which led to a high catch rate of just under 70%. The Giants look to have a bottom-10 secondary heading into 2023, so Lamb should have no issues posting a strong fantasy score in this match-up.

TE Darren Waller: Note that Waller is listed as questionable as of now with a hamstring injury, but is expected to suit up. Whether you’re looking to roll him out as a captain or flex play, the injury clearly makes him a riskier DFS option. But if he is not limited, Waller projects as the top receiving option on a Giants offense that does not possess many established NFL pass catchers. The Cowboys were stout against TEs last season, allowing the second-fewest FPPG to the position. But Waller is a top-five TE talent and should line up as a wide receiver in many formations. There is a good chance that the Giants will lean pass-heavy as well if playing from behind for much of this game.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Saquon Barkley: A healthy Saquon makes for a worthy captain option but, for an extra +$600 (captain salary), I’d just rather make a little extra room and pay up for Pollard. On top of what Barkley provides as a runner, he’s one of the premier pass-catching backs in the NFL. He was targeted 85 times in 2022, which equated to a 15.5% target% -- an elite figure among RBs. Those targets led to 64 receptions for 415 yards. The Cowboys are expected to be a stingy run defense but Barkley is one of the few true “game script independent” RBs in the NFL and should be a major part of the gameplan whether the Giants are playing from ahead or behind.

QB Dak Prescott: Prescott has found ample success against the NFC East rival Giants throughout his career, averaging 262.3 passing YPG, 64.1% comp%, and 1.9 pass TDs/gm. The addition of Brandin Cooks rounds out a solid trio of Cowboys WRs, alongside CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Prescott has some captain appeal, but the fact that he probably won’t end this game as the highest-scoring fantasy option makes him better suited as a high-floor FLEX play.

WR Parris Campbell: Once you get past TE Darren Waller, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will emerge as the secondary receiving threat in what is a crowded Giants wide receiver room. Between Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell, rookie Jalin Hyatt, and a now healthy Sterling Shepard, we could just see a revolving door of each WR getting a fairly even amount of snaps and targets. They’re all a gamble for DFS as we head into game one. With that said, the Cowboys do possess an elite duo of boundary corners with Trevon Diggs and veteran Stephon Gilmore manning the perimeters. That leads me here to highlight Parris Campbell, who ran out of the slot 80% of the time as a member of the Indianapolis Colts in 2022. Campbell caught 69.2% of his targets last season despite some extremely unreliable QB play from the likes of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles. Jalin Hyatt and/or Sterling Shepard may also push for slot WR duties, but Campbell should at least begin the season as the primary slot receiver over those two. If that’s the case, Campbell should see a solid dose of high-percentage targets and make for a worthy FLEX play.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Jake Ferguson: Being the primary receiving tight end for Dak Prescott always presents some fantasy value. With the departure of Dalton Schultz (Texans), second-year player Jake Ferguson steps into the lead Cowboys TE role. In his limited role as a rookie, Ferguson caught 87% of his targets and averaged 11.6 YPR. At 6’5”, 250 lb, he’s a huge redzone target and will face a Giants defense that gave up the 11th most FPPG to TEs in 2022.

K Brandon Aubrey / K Graham Gano: Very light winds in the Meadowlands tonight and we should see a decent amount of scoring. That puts both kickers in play. Aubrey is a former USFL player who will be breaking into his NFL career on a potent Cowboys offense. Gano is a reliable veteran who made 30-of-33 FGA (and 37-of-39 PATs) in 2022, including eight FGs of 50+ yards.

RB Deuce Vaughn / RB Rico Dowdle: There should be some touches to be had out of the Cowboys backfield behind Tony Pollard. I wouldn’t play both guys in the same lineup, but Vaughn and Dowdle have some appeal as GPP fliers. The sixth-round rookie Deuce Vaughn was a highly productive back at Kansas State, but at 5-foot-6, he does not possess prototypical NFL size at RB. Still, he made some highlight plays in the preseason and could mix in on passing downs. Dowdle (5’11”, 215 lbs) is more of a standard backup RB who could see additional work if the Cowboys end up with a big lead in the second half.

TE Daniel Bellinger: If Darren Waller (hamstring, expected to play) is limited in any fashion, Bellinger could see a solid amount of snaps and garner a few targets. If he lucks into a touchdown, he’ll pay off his near-minimum $400 DK salary in a big way.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

RB Tony Pollard

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Tony Pollard, QB Dak Prescott, K Brandon Aubrey: Cowboys-heavy stack that theoretically gives you exposure to every point Dallas scores. With Pollard’s proven receiving ability, he works fine as a stack piece with QB Dak Prescott.

*WR CeeDee Lamb, QB Dak Prescott, WR Parris Campbell: Lamb brings a strong receiving floor with massive upside to DFS lineups every week. Rolling with a CPTN Lamb + Dak WR/QB stack is a great start to showdown lineup builds, but it’s pricey. We’ll run it back with a cheap Giants WR play with Campbell and just hope that he sets himself apart from that crowded group of NYG WRs.

*TE Darren Waller, QB Daniel Jones, RB Tony Pollard: Waller is the sixth-most expensive player on this showdown slate so utilizing him at CPTN will open up a bit more roster flexibility. Of course, we’re hoping the hamstring injury isn’t serious enough to where his usage will be limited, but we will stack him with QB Daniel Jones for correlation purposes and hope that they can connect on a touchdown or two. We can then splurge on a premium FLEX option in RB Tony Pollard as the “bring back” option.

*RB Saquon Barkley, RB Tony Pollard, WR Parris Campbell: The “double stud RB” lineup build. We’ve already seen a ton of sloppy passing attacks in the early week one NFL games. It would not be a shock if this game trends toward a ground-and-pound script on both sides. Both RBs also offer strong PPR potential. It’s an expensive RB duo, so we’ll fit Campbell in there as an affordable FLEX play and bank on him seeing some high-percentage targets out of the slot.

*QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Brandin Cooks, TE Jake Ferguson: A “CPTN Dak triple stack” build. If Dak ends up as the optimal captain, then AT LEAST two, and likely three, of his receivers are going to have strong days -- but not an individual performance that would be big enough to best Prescott as the optimal captain.

4-2 Giants Stacks: Past data shows us that week one divisional underdogs cover the spread at a high rate. The Giants are three-point home ‘dogs in this one and if they end up winning this game, there is a strong possibility of four Giants players landing in the optimal lineup. Most DFS builds will lean 4-2 Cowboys and 3-3 balanced, so 4-2 Giants-heavy stacks provide strong leverage in GPPs.

PrizePicks SNF Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for Sunday Night Football over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Dak Prescott MORE than 0.5 Pass Yards (Discounted Promo)

Parris Campbell MORE than 2.5 Receptions

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!