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Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) | 52.5 O/U

MIA: 24.8 Implied Points | PHI: 27.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB De’Von Achane - OUT/IR, WR Quez Watkins - OUT/IR, WR River Cracraft - OUT/IR, RB Chris Brooks - OUT/IR, FB Alec Ingold - Questionable (expected to play)

Score Prediction: MIA - 31, PHI - 28

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Dolphins, 4-2 Eagles

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Tyreek Hill: We’ve got quite the SNF match-up tonight with a slew of fantasy stars on both sides. Perhaps the brightest star of the bunch has been the ever-electric Tyreek Hill. Through six weeks, Tyreek leads the NFL in air yard% (49.9%), touchdowns (6), receiving yards (814), and he is 6th in target share (31.1%). The Eagles' defense has been a pass funnel this season -- they’re extremely stingy against the run (2nd in rush DVOA) but they’ve been beatable through the air (20th in pass DVOA). The Dolphins utilize Hill all over the field and he spends roughly two-thirds of his time on the perimeter and a third of his time in the slot. He’ll certainly be able to find some mismatches no matter where he aligns as the Eagles have allowed the 5th most FPPG to perimeter WRs and the 10th most FPPG to slot WRs. Tyreek is the most expensive player in this game but is a clear-cut captain candidate nonetheless.

QB Jalen Hurts: We’re not exactly targeting scrubs or unknown players for our captain choices today. Remember, more often than not, you want the highest-scoring player in your captain slot and not necessarily the best value. Jalen Hurts has been as consistent of a fantasy QB as anyone else in the league and it certainly doesn’t… hurt that he has punched in five rushing TDs on the season. The “Brotherly Shove” play call is simply undefeated. Hurts has also been airing it out as of late, averaging 39.3 pass attempts/gm and 295.0 pass YPG over the last four weeks. In a game that should trend toward a shootout, we should expect another heavy dose of Hurts pass attempts on top of what he already provides with his rushing ability. He’ll get a strong match-up with a Dolphins defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA and has allowed 95% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road (last nine games).

WR AJ Brown: As mentioned, Tyreek Hill leads the NFL in team air yard% but AJ Brown leads the NFL in overall air yards with 843 -- nearly 100 more than Hill (745). Brown has been on an absolute tear over the last four weeks, averaging 11.3 targets/gm, 141.0 YPG, and 27.9 DKFP/gm. His hot streak should continue against a Dolphins team that is allowing an average of 187.8 YPG, 15.5 receptions/gm, 1.5 TDs/gm, and the 5th most FPPG to WRs in their last four games. The Dolphins are allowing 97.2 YPG to opposing WR1s this season and rank 27th in WR1 DVOA.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Raheem Mostert: It’s certainly a rough match-up against an Eagles defense that has allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs and ranks 2nd in rush DVOA, but Mostert has been a massive beneficiary from injuries to fellow Dolphins RB De’Von Achane (and, to an extent, Chris Brooks) and plays on the NFL’s most prolific offense that has averaged 37.2 PPG. Mostert owns some massive touchdown equity in this game and has already posted three multi-touchdown performances this season, including a four-touchdown day in week three and a three-touchdown afternoon last week. RB Jeff Wilson Jr. will make his season debut, but the current expectation is that Mostert will be favored in roughly a 65/35 sort of backfield split.

RB D’Andre Swift: On the surface, both running games will take a backseat to the passing games but Swift has been as consistent of a fantasy producer as any RB in the NFL going back to week two. In that five-game stretch, Swift has played between 54% and 75% of snaps each week while averaging 17.0 rushes/gm, 5.0 targets/gm, 4.4 receptions/gm, and 112.8 total YPG. He’ll easily draw the more favorable RB match-up, compared to Mostert, as the Dolphins check in at 25th in rush DVOA and allow 57% more FPPG to RBs on the road (last nine games).

WR DeVonta Smith: Smith has certainly played in the shadow of AJ Brown these last few weeks but, historically, it’s been much more of a WR1-A/WR1-B situation as far as target distribution and production between the two star Eagles wideouts. Smith still boasts a strong 22.7% target% on the season while averaging 7.5 targets/gm, however, he and QB Jalen Hurts simply haven’t been on the same page at times lately -- case in point, last week Smith was targeted a team-high 10 times and led the team with 154 air yards, but he only ended up hauling in five catches for 44 yards. Smith should also run over a third of his routes against CB Eli Apple, who has been one of the most favorable CB match-ups a WR could ask for. The lack of elite production as of late has deflated Smith’s DFS salary and he’s priced down as the 8th most expensive player in this game. That will make him a highly intriguing contrarian captain play, but he is certainly a prime FLEX target.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Dallas Goedert: He’s a bit of a pricey “flier” but Goedert has commanded at least seven targets in four of the last five games and owns a strong 31.6% redzone target%. Goedert has logged a 92% snap% this season so he’s rarely off the field and it’s a decent enough match-up against the Dolphins who allow the 12th most FPPG to TEs.

WR Julio Jones: With WR Quez Watkins going on IR, the Eagles signed Julio Jones out of free agency this week to fill in their WR3 opening. It’s a mystery when it comes to how much Jones will play after just signing five days ago. Jones may be well past his prime but the Eagles would not have made the signing and elevated him to the active roster so quickly if they didn’t have plans to utilize him.

WR Braxton Berrios: There is not a lot of room to shine as a wide receiver when you’re sharing the field with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Berrios still holds value on a showdown slate as the de facto WR3 in a prolific Dolphins offense. Berrios has played at least a 49% snap% in three games this season and has logged no less than a 30% snap% in any one game. He owns a decent 18.0% target per route run rate and flashed some fantasy viability in week four when he caught 6-of-6 targets for 43 yards and a TD while adding an 11-yard rush.

TE Durham Smythe: He’s been largely a non-factor this season and has only seen one target in the last two games, but Smythe has accounted for all but one of the Dolphins’ tight end targets this season while playing at least 81% of snaps in 4-of-6 games. Somewhat surprisingly, Smythe has run the 2nd most pass routes (149) for the Dolphins, behind only Tyreek Hill (161 routes). This is also a sneaky good match-up for Smythe against the Eagles, who rank dead last in TE DVOA. He is a goose egg candidate, but just as easily could reel in a few receptions and a touchdown.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Perhaps the most obvious punt play of the night award goes to Jeff Wilson Jr. He’s going to operate behind Raheem Mostert but the Dolphins have heavily utilized multiple RBs in every game this season. Most importantly, Wilson checks in with the stone minimum $200 salary. In a game that features so many stud players at every skill position, Wilson will provide some welcomed salary relief that will allow you to fit three or four high-end players into the same lineup. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Wilson completely flops at this salary even in a difficult match-up on the ground.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

WR Tyreek Hill

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: In a game filled to the brim with superstars, no one player has as much slate-breaking upside as the one and only Tyreek Hill. We didn’t spotlight Tua in this showdown newsletter but we’ll want to maintain correlation potential by stacking him in the FLEX. Given Tyreek’s slate-high price tag, we can open up plenty of salary by ‘punting’ with the min-priced Jeff Wilson Jr. and be left with a manageable average salary of $7,066 for the remaining three FLEX plays.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown, WR DeVonta Smith: Standard CPTN Hurts double-stack featuring his two stud WRs. It’s a costly stack, but you’re soaking up a massive amount of the Eagles’ passing/receiving yardage here in what could be a pass-heavy Philly game script.

*WR AJ Brown, QB Jalen Hurts, RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Similar concept as the CPTN Tyreek stack, simply flipping it to the other side of the ball. Brown has been balling out over the last four weeks with an average of 27.9 DKFP/gm and we’ll want to jam in Hurts at FLEX for correlation. Jeff Wilson Jr. won’t be a sneaky punt but he just makes these sorts of premium WR/QB builds so much more manageable.

*RB Raheem Mostert, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Braxton Berrios: Bit of a contrarian build here as I don’t imagine many lineups will feature both starting RBs in the same lineup. Something I haven’t touched on in this newsletter is the windy conditions expected in Philly tonight -- nothing too crazy, but 10-15 mph sustained winds with 25+ mph gusts could theoretically downgrade both passing games. Or perhaps we all get fooled and this match-up turns into a lower-scoring game where both run games take over. I wouldn’t count on it, but rolling with both Mostert and Swift is a good way to get different. And dropping in Berrios as a punt play would still leave room for a couple of stud plays in the FLEX.

*RB D’Andre Swift, QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill: A game script correlation stack that would work out in the scenario where Philly plays with the lead so they go run-heavy with Swift, forcing Miami to lean pass-heavy.

*WR DeVonta Smith, QB Jalen Hurts, + Fade WR AJ Brown: If Smith ends the night as the optimal captain play, it likely means that AJ Brown doesn’t post an optimal fantasy score -- for an example of this, see week two where Smith posted a 26.1 DKFP score while Brown put up just 6.9 DKFP. It’s not the most likely of scenarios, but worth a shot in GPP builds.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr + ALL THE STUDS (Fade Mostert): This stack is safe by no means but Wilson is expected to see some decent volume tonight and if he happens to post around a 15 DKFP score, it may be a situation where the best value does* end up as the optimal captain. With an average salary of $9,940 per FLEX play, you can easily fit in any combination of high-end plays that you like. I would fade Mostert in any CPTN Wilson builds since both are unlikely to make the optimal lineup.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyreek Hill MORE than 0.5 Pass+Rush+Rec TDs

Jalen Hurts MORE than 262.5 Pass Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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