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Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New England Patriots | 46 O/U

MIA: 24.3 Implied Points | NE: 21.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR DeVante Parker - Questionable, RB Jeff Wilson Jr. - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: MIA - 24, NE - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Dolphins, 4-2 Patriots

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Tyreek Hill: I could probably just link a YouTube video of Tyreek’s week one highlight reel and leave it at that. You probably saw at least a portion of the slate-breaking performance that he put up last week but, as a reminder, he caught 11/15 targets for 215 yards and a pair of scores -- good for a cool 47.5 DKFP. He laid claim to a 35.7% target% and a 46.5% share of the Dolphins’ total air yards. Can we count on 200+ yards and multiple TDs again? Probably not. But there’s no doubt that Hill will post similar stat lines in several games this season. He’s proclaimed that he wants to be the NFL’s first single-season 2,000-yard receiver and I believe he has a legitimate shot to do just that this season. This will be more of a middling match-up with the Pats' fairly solid secondary, but when it comes to Tyreek, match-ups don’t matter all too much. He’s going to see his targets no matter what and is worthy of his rich captain salary of $18,900 ($12,600 base salary).

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: When New England signed Zeke Elliott shortly before the season began, it raised some eyebrows and brought up some concerns about Stevenson’s fantasy value taking a hit. A 72% snap share in week one with 18 total touches, including six targets, quelled some of those worries. Stevenson is still the driving engine of a Patriots’ offense that doesn’t possess any big-time playmakers at receiver. He struggled to get much going on the ground in week one against a stout Eagles defensive front, but he should find more success against a Dolphins run defense that was trounced by the Chargers’ RBs for 208 yards on 32 carries (6.5 YPC) and two TDs (+47 yards on four RB receptions). Stevenson’s involvement as a receiver and high touchdown equity will make him a high-ceiling captain option in this AFC East primetime showdown.

WR Kendrick Bourne: Bourne ran a whopping 54 pass routes in week one while leading all Pats WRs in snap share (91%). The result of all of those routes and snaps was an 11-target, 6-catch, 64-yard day with two touchdowns and 24.4 DKFP. The Dolphins have a quality secondary headlined by CB Xavien Howard but Bourne should see consistent targets and makes for a more affordable captain option.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Tua Tagovailoa: As many headlines as Tyreek’s week one performance grabbed, it wouldn’t have been possible without Tua slinging Hill the ball all over the field. Tagovailoa’s 466-yard, three-touchdown day earned him a spot in the week one perfect lineup. Of course, that game between the Dolphins and Chargers was a straight-up shootout and things shouldn’t be quite as wild in this game tonight. However, the Patriots gave up the 5th most passing TDs a season ago and Tua has one of the best NFL WR duos at his disposal. I won’t have much exposure to Tagovailoa at captain, but he makes for a perfect high-floor FLEX play.

WR Jaylen Waddle: Whether it’s at captain or FLEX, just about everyone is going to try to jam Tyreek Hill into their lineups tonight. Playing both Hill and Waddle represents a costly investment so if you really want to get risky, rolling out Waddle (at FLEX or CPTN) and fading Tyreek would set your lineup(s) apart from the masses. Waddle is not immune to huge ceiling games either and he should see a decent amount of routes against Pats CB Christian Gonzalez, who was targeted against in 40% of routes ran in his coverage last week.

TE Hunter Henry: The Dolphins were one of just four teams that surrendered double-digit TDs to tight ends in 2022 and they allowed the 3rd most FPPG to the position. Hunter Henry put up a solid week one where he caught 5/6 targets for 56 yards and a score while playing 80% of snaps. Henry probably needs a multiple-touchdown performance if he has any chance to qualify as the optimal captain play, but he is a strong bet to find the endzone once while piling up a handful of catches and 50-70 yards.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Jason Sanders: If you caught my score prediction above, you’ll see that I’m calling for the Patriots to pull off the win as home underdogs tonight. When it comes to kickers on these showdown slates, you usually want to side with the guy who is kicking for the team you believe will win. I’ll go against that process today (and, by no means do I believe the Pats are a lock to win -- just making a fun prediction) since the Dolphins are likely to be able to sustain more drives than the Patriots. However, the Pats' defense did buckle down in week one once the Eagles ventured into their territory and forced four Jake Elliott FGAs. Sanders connected on all three of his FGAs last week and has a strong chance at procuring a double-digit fantasy score tonight. No wind/weather concerns in Foxborough this evening.

TE Durham Smythe: He only brought in three catches for 44 yards, but Smythe was targeted seven times, had a 91.3% route participation, played 100% of snaps, and averaged eight yards after the catch. So there are plenty of positives there that didn’t show up in the box score. The Patriots didn’t allow a single catch to any Eagles’ TEs last week but they were vulnerable against the position a season ago, surrendering 11 TDs (T-2nd most) to TEs. I’m liking Smythe as a “FLEX filler” in this spot at his $3,800 DK price tag.

WR Braxton Berrios: Bill Belichick is a master at taking away the opposing team’s best playmaker. If he succeeds in doing that with Tyreek Hill, other Dolphins’ WRs will benefit from extra usage. The big beneficiary would clearly be Jaylen Waddle, but Braxton Berrios would get in on the action as well. Berrios saw five targets last week (3 rec., 42 yds) and should be on the field for 3WR sets. He’s too cheap at $2,000 on DraftKings.

WR Demario Douglas: The one real notable DFS-relevant injury in this game surrounds Pats WR DeVante Parker, who missed week one and heads in as questionable tonight after getting in some limited practices this week. Whether or not Parker plays should not affect Douglas’ involvement in this game as he ran 92% of plays out of the slot. Douglas played on just 33 snaps (41% snap%) last week but he was targeted seven times, catching four passes for 40 yards. He’s a solid FLEX flier at just $1,800.

WR Kayshon Boutte: DeVante Parker’s status does likely have more of an impact on Boutte’s potential involvement tonight. If Parker plays, I’ll probably avoid Boutte but if he sits (or it’s announced he’ll be limited), Boutte will make for a worthy GPP flier given his near-minimum $600 price tag. Boutte didn’t record a catch in week one but he was targeted four times and had a deep 21-yard aDOT. His 69% snap% also ranked second among Pats' week one WRs. It’s a major gamble, but Boutte could pay off big time if he connects on one of those long targets down the field.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tua Tagovailoa, K Jason Sanders: Hill has one of the highest ceilings in fantasy football so sliding him in at CPTN seems like a no-brainer move. We’ll complete the WR/QB stack with Tua in the FLEX. Since those are the two most expensive players on the slate, we’ll save some salary by rolling K Jason Sanders out as well. This also brings some solid correlation in play -- if Sanders connects on multiple field goals, it will be because Tua & Hill helped move the ball down the field.

*RB Rhamondre Stevenson, QB Tua Tagovailoa, TE Durham Smythe: Stevenson is poised for a big night against a Dolphins run defense that was gouged by Chargers RBs Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley in week one. His involvement as a pass catcher also adds plenty of value given DraftKings’ full PPR scoring. If the Patriots play with the lead, Stevenson’s optimal captaincy odds skyrocket and the Dolphins will lean pass-heavy on the other side so we’ll throw in a Tua + cheap MIA receiver stack as the bring-back pairing.

*WR Kendrick Bourne, QB Mac Jones, RB Raheem Mostert: It’s only based on a one-week sample size, but Bourne does look like the WR1 in New England and it appears as if he’ll have a strong target floor most weeks. He has strong upside and won’t break the bank at the captain slot. Neither guy was spotlighted above, but we’ll stack CPTN Bourne with QB Mac Jones and run it back with Mostert for correlation purposes.

*QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Braxton Berrios: Standard CPTN Tua double-stack. Tua & Tyreek eat up a large chunk of salary so we’ll want to throw in one of those cheap Dolphins’ receivers and Berrios makes plenty of sense at his $2,000 price tag.

*WR Jaylen Waddle + Fade Tyreek Hill: We’ve touched on it a bit but Bill Belichick has a knack for taking away a team’s best playmaker (in this case, Tyreek Hill). If Tyreek has a pedestrian game at his exorbitant DFS salary, that’s going to kill the vast majority of lineups. Rolling Waddle out at captain while fading Hill makes for a strong contrarian lineup approach.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyreek Hill MORE than 53.5 Receiving Yards (Discounted Prop)

Rhamondre Stevens + Hunter Henry MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Combo)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!