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New York Jets (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders | 35.5 O/U

NYJ: 18.5 Implied Points | LV: 17.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: Jets - 13, Raiders - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Raiders, 4-2 Jets

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Breece Hall: Sweet Lord in Heaven, please no more Jets primetime games. My soul cannot take it any longer. A Sunday Night Football match-up that pits the Raiders against the Jets will boast the lowest total of the week at 35.5 points. I believe I saw on ESPN this morning that unders are 23-7 in primetime games this season and we’re likely staring down the barrel of another sloppy slog of a game tonight. That said, for DFS purposes, Breece Hall will easily make the list of top captain candidates in this game. Hall’s four highest snap rates have come in the last four games and, in that span, he’s averaging 20.0 touches/gm, 110.1 scrimmage YPG, and 20.8 FPPG. Even though he’ll likely face plenty of stacked boxes and will be running behind a porous, banged-up Jets offensive line, Hall gets a superb match-up. The Raiders have been awful against the run, ranking 29th in rush DVOA, and they've surrendered the 4th most FPPG to RBs this season. They’ve been particularly poor against the run as of late, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to RBs, including 1.3 TDs/gm. Hall was largely scripted out of last week’s game against the Chargers, but if the Jets can keep this one close, he should receive plenty of work in a prime match-up.

RB Josh Jacobs: In the first game of the post-Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas, Jacobs operated as a bona fide workhorse, handling 26 carries for 98 yards and scoring two touchdowns in week nine. Those 26 touches represented a 44% touch%, which led all RBs in the NFL last week. The 30 points scored by the Raiders last week were also a season-high, though, beating up on a hapless Giants team is not exactly a perfect measuring stick. Nonetheless, the new Raiders’ coaching hierarchy has made it well known that they plan on feeding Jacobs heavy volume. The Jets boast a fierce pass defense (4th in pass DVOA) but they can be run on (21st in rush DVOA). On the season, they’re surrendering the 6th most FPPG to RBs. The Jets are also allowing +28% more FPPG to RBs when on the road (last nine games). In what will likely be a low-scoring affair where neither team pulls away on the scoreboard, we can expect both of the top RBs in this game to be heavily involved.

WR Garrett Wilson: Despite the Jets’ offensive limitations, Garrett Wilson salvaged another respectable fantasy performance on Monday Night Football in week nine, catching 7-of-13 targets for 80 yards. He now has at least 14.0 DKFP in four of the last five games, despite scoring zero touchdowns in that span. The volume has been excellent for Wilson all season as he ranks 2nd among all NFL receivers with a 32.8% target% and he owns an NFL-leading 49.1% air yard%. And, while it hasn’t resulted in many touchdown grabs, Wilson has an absurd 50% redzone target%. The Raiders have been stingy against WRs this season, allowing the 6th fewest FPPG to the position. However, they’re midpack (15th) in pass DVOA, so there’s some decent potential for regression at any moment, perhaps tonight.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Davante Adams: It’s been a rough go as of late for Adams, who has no more than four catches, 45 yards, or 8.5 DKFP in four of his last five games. I have a difficult time imagining he’ll put together a huge game against this Jets secondary that has allowed THE fewest FPPG to WRs this season. But, this is still Davante Adams we’re talking about and his recent struggles for production haven’t exactly been entirely his fault. Perhaps he’s not going to be an ideal captain candidate at his slate-high $11,600 salary ($17,400 CPTN salary), but if he can establish some rapport with rookie QB Aidan O’Connell, he’s still a strong bet to crack the optimal lineup as a FLEX play. Also, everyone is going to be scared to utilize Adams as a captain play because this Jets secondary is just so good. So, if you’re feeling bold, he’s still a viable captain option in GPPs. Adams has only run a route on the right perimeter 27% of the time this season, so he’ll mostly avoid coverage from Sauce Gardner (89% right perimeter%). Instead, he’ll mostly run routes against DJ Reed, which also isn’t a great match-up, but Adams does have some solid size advantage against the 5’9” Reed.

QB Zach Wilson: You don’t like it. I don’t like it. But it’s not often that at least one QB doesn’t crack the optimal lineup in these single-game formats. Both QBs in this game are under $9k, with Wilson being just $200 more expensive than O’Connell, and he has the benefit of not having to throw against that elite Jets pass defense. “Upside” wouldn’t be the right word, but Wilson does project for a better ceiling than O’Connell and, even if he can muster around 13-15 FP, he’s probably going to end up as an optimal play in this (likely) low-scoring game. The Raiders have allowed a 70.3% completion% over their last four games so if Wilson has a somewhat efficient day passing the ball while tacking on a touchdown or two, we’ll happily take that result. Wilson also has some moderate rushing potential with 25+ rushing yards in three games this season.

Raiders D/ST / Jets D/ST: This certainly feels like a game where a defense will be an optimal play, perhaps even at captain. The Raiders D/ST has averaged 10.3 FPPG at home this season and has scored at least 12 FP in three of their last five games. D/STs are also averaging 12.8 FPPG against the Jets in their last four games. Of course, the Jets boast that stout pass defense and will get to face a rookie QB making just his third career NFL start. D/STs are averaging 10.3 FPPG versus the Raiders in their last four games. So, both defenses are firmly in play, though, I probably wouldn’t play both in the same lineup.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Tyler Conklin: Most of his week nine production came on a garbage time drive but Conklin remains second on the team in receptions and is tied with Allen Lazard for the second-highest team target% (13.9%). The Raiders also rank 24th in TE DVOA, so it’s an exploitable match-up. Conklin has shown a decent enough floor in a poor Jets passing offense, despite zero touchdown receptions on the season. Overall, he stands out as one of the best non-QB/RB1/WR1 options in this game.

K Daniel Carlson / K Greg Zuerlein: You know the drill with these sort of ugly primetime match-ups. Good chance we’ll see more field goals than touchdowns. The Jets rank dead last in redzone touchdown conversion rate and the Raiders have not been much better, ranking 22nd. No wind/weather concerns in the domed Allegiant Stadium.

TE Michael Mayer: Mayer made a little noise in week six with a five-catch, 75-yard performance but, in the three games since, he has just five catches on eight targets for 43 yards. He’s still playing the vast majority of the tight end snaps for the Raiders, logging an 88% snap% last week, and a 91% snap% in week eight. As we all know, passing on the Jets is a tough task but tight ends have found moderate success against them. On the season, the Jets are allowing the 16th most FPPG to TEs, and, now that Mayer is a near-every-down player, the potential for a solid game will be there.

RB Michael Carter: Carter has firmly taken over the Jets’ RB2 role, moving ahead of Dalvin Cook in the pecking order. Carter has out-snapped Cook 73 to 35 over the last four games. He did catch all six of his targets last week, but five of those receptions came on a meaningless final garbage time drive. Nonetheless, Carter should play around 25% of the snaps and has proven to be a solid receiver out of the backfield. One big play and he returns value on his $1,800 salary.

WR Tre Tucker: Tucker is a speedy big play threat and he logged a 47% snap% last week under the new Raiders’ interim coaching regime. He now has multiple receptions and a rush attempt in three of the last four games. He fits the “gadget guy” role that most teams have nowadays. While he is not a heavily involved receiver, if he continues to flirt with a 50% snap%, then he’ll surely get a few opportunities to make an impact. When it comes to complete dart throws, Tuckers makes enough sense at his minuscule $800 showdown salary.

WR Xavier Gipson: Anyone who watched Hard Knocks this year is probably familiar with Gipson. The undrafted rookie has made some big plays as the Jets’ special teams return man and he has speed to burn. Last week, he logged a season-high 58% snap% (previous season-high was a 31% snap%) and Gipson caught both of his targets for 32 yards. In a Jets offense that is starving for offensive explosiveness, Gipson should be able to carve out a role and I could imagine the Jets manufacturing him a few touches. If he plays 50+% of the snaps again, he’ll almost certainly return value on his stone minimum $200 salary.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

RB Josh Jacobs

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Breece Hall, Jets D/ST, RB Josh Jacobs: Double-RB1 lineups with Hall and Jacobs (one being slotted in at captain) will probably be a popular approach for this particular game. It’s hard to knock that strategy when looking at these two passing attacks & defensive match-ups. Both defenses can be beaten on the ground and these two backs should combine for 40-50 touches. With this CPTN Hall lineup, we’ll save some salary by taking the Jets D/ST in the FLEX, which also adds some solid correlation.

*RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders D/ST, WR Xavier Gipson: It’s not a “must” to roster your CPTN RB’s D/ST in the FLEX, but there is a strong probability that: A. One of Jacobs or Hall will end the night as the optimal captain and, B. One of the D/STs will be an optimal FLEX play. So we’ll roll with that approach with this CPTN Jacobs lineup build. Punting Xavier Gipson as a bring-back play will leave you with $9,566/player for your remaining three FLEX plays.

*WR Garrett Wilson, QB Zach Wilson, K Greg Zuerlein: The overall target%, redzone target%, and air yard shares are simply dominated by Garrett Wilson in this offense. Oh, what could have been if Aaron Rodgers never went down in week one. While they may not always be accurate, Wilson is going to be force-fed targets one way or another and he’s my top non-RB captain play in this game. We’ll roll with the correlation and complete the WR/QB stack with Zach Wilson in the FLEX. Someone has to move the ball to set up FG opportunities, so we’ll pair this duo with Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein as well.

*WR Davante Adams, QB Aidan O’Connell, TE Michael Mayer: This is a risky stack for obvious reasons. Very few offenses are finding success against the Jets secondary but some premiere WR1s have had strong individual performances versus the Jets this season -- Stefon Diggs Wk1 (29.2 DKFP), CeeDee Lamb Wk2 (28.2 DKFP), and AJ Brown Wk6 (23.1 DKFP). Davante Adams is very much on the same level as those elite WRs and he’s going to go under-owned as a captain play tonight. O’Connell wasn’t spotlighted in today’s newsletter, but if Adams ends the night as the optimal captain, then O’Connell will likely end up as an optimal FLEX. Working under that presumption, another Raiders pass catcher would have a meaningful impact as well, so we’ll go with an affordable Michael Mayer. As mentioned, the Jets have been vulnerable against TEs at times this season and Mayer is playing around 90% of the snaps as of late.

*QB Zach Wilson, WR Garrett Wilson, TE Tyler Conklin: An indigestion-inducing CPTN Z. Wilson double-stack featuring his top two reception leaders. Garrett Wilson should be a lock in any CPTN Z. Wilson lineups, but Conklin could be interchangeable with the likes of Allen Lazard, Xavier Gipson, or even RB Breece Hall, who is averaging 5.3 targets/gm L4Gms.

*Raiders -OR- Jets D/ST, RB Breece Hall, RB Josh Jacobs: We nearly saw this sort of lineup end up as the optimal on MNF (NYJ vs. LAC) where the Chargers D/ST was the optimal captain, and RB Austin Ekeler was an optimal FLEX. Breece Hall just didn’t have a productive enough game to crack the perfect lineup, though he was scripted out of the game a bit. I don’t imagine either RB will be totally scripted out of tonight’s game and there is definite potential for one of the D/STs to put up a captain-worthy fantasy score.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Josh Jacobs MORE than 17.5 Rush Attempts

Garrett Wilson MORE than 5.5 Receptions

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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