LineStar NFL DFS Primetime Preview 📺 | Sunday Night Football: Ravens at Jaguars

Top DFS Plays, Props, and Strategy for Sunday Night Football!

Author

Ryan Humphries
December 17, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars | 40.5 O/U

BAL: 22.0 Implied Points | JAX: 18.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Christian Kirk - OUT/IR, TE Mark Andrews - OUT/IR, TE Brenton Strange - Questionable

Score Prediction: Ravens - 24, Jaguars - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Ravens, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Jaguars

Weather Note: Rain is gone by kickoff but winds could present an issue. 15-20 mph sustained winds with 30+ mph gusts.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Lamar Jackson: It’s been an up-and-down season for Jackson but, at the end of the day, he’s still the QB4 in fantasy points per game. As always, he brings strong rushing potential out of the QB position and leads the league (among QBs) with 644 rushing yards. The Jags have surrendered the 3rd most FPPG to QBs this season, including 25.7 FPPG allowed to QBs over their last four games. The four QBs that Jacksonville has most recently faced? Joe Flacco, Jake Browning, CJ Stroud, and Will Levis… not exactly a gauntlet of top QB talent, aside from Stroud. We’ll clearly want some captain exposure to Lamar tonight.

 

WR Zay Flowers: In the two full games since TE Mark Andrews landed on the IR, Flowers has commanded 18 targets and has scored three touchdowns (two receiving, one rushing). The versatile rookie receiver has been a reliable target for QB Lamar Jackson. Flowers has hauled in 71.1% of his targets this season and, lately, he’s rarely coming off of the field. His snap rates over the last three games have been 97%, 94%, and 98%. He also steps into a strong match-up against a Jags secondary that has allowed the 4th most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season (Flowers: 70% PerimeterRoute%).

 

TE Evan Engram: There are some targets up for grabs following the week 13 injury to WR Christian Kirk (core, groin/OUT/IR). Kirk went down on the first offensive play two weeks ago and it doesn’t seem like a total coincidence that Evan Engram has since had his two biggest games of the season. In these last two games, Engram has caught 20-of-21 targets for 177 yards and three touchdowns. Engram also logged a season-high 89% snap% last week to go with a season-high in targets (12). The Ravens have been tough versus tight ends throughout the season (12th in TE DVOA, 9th fewest FPPG allowed) but they’ve been more vulnerable recently, allowing the 9th most FPPG to TEs in their last four games. Engram also had a tougher match-up on paper last week (@ CLE, 7th in TE DVOA, 2nd fewest FPPG allowed to TEs) and yet he still exploded for a massive performance.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Trevor Lawrence: Difficult match-up (BAL: 2nd in pass DVOA) but we can never count out QBs on these showdown slates and Trevor Lawrence has been playing well lately. Over the last four games, Lawrence is averaging 285.3 YPG, 2.0 TDs/gm, and 26.6 FPPG. The ankle injury he suffered two weeks ago doesn’t seem to be limiting him in any significant way so there are little to no concerns there. The Ravens did allow Matthew Stafford to throw for 294 yards and three touchdowns last week and have allowed the 13th most FPPG to QBs over their last four games, so it’s perhaps not as brutal of a match-up as some of the season-long numbers would suggest.

 

RB Travis Etienne Jr.: It’s tough to imagine ETN having a ceiling game here but his fairly safe volume should give him a strong chance to crack the optimal lineup as a FLEX play, especially if he can punch in a touchdown. ETN has averaged 20.2 touches/gm and 91.5 total YPG this season and has played 75% of the offensive snaps. He dominates redzone touches as well. So, he’ll be a quality FLEX target even at his five-figure DFS salary in a difficult match-up.

 

WR Odell Beckham Jr.: OBJ has been turning back the clock a bit and has made some vintage OBJ plays in recent weeks. Since week nine, OBJ has led the team in targets (31), air yard% (33.3%), receiving yards (343), and touchdowns (three). He runs routes almost exclusively on the perimeter and, as mentioned in Zay Flowers’ spotlight, the Jags have allowed the 4th most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season. Beckham should also run most of his routes in the coverage of CB Darious Williams, which is the best WR/CB match-up for any Ravens WR.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Isaiah Likely: He’s a little pricey for what I’d consider a “flier” but Likely is still fairly affordable and will play around 75% of the snaps as the Ravens lead tight end in place of the injured Mark Andrews. He had a great game last week (5/83/1 on seven targets, 19.3 DKFP) and draws a plus match-up against the Jags (8th most FPPG allowed to TEs).

 

RB Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell has not played more than a 46% snap% or handled more than 11 touches in any one game this season. But, as we saw in his week nine breakout game (9 rush, 138 yards, 1 TD), he’s a true home run threat and he’s averaging 8.9 yards per touch. It wouldn’t be a major surprise if Mitchell leads the Ravens RBs in touches tonight, as he has done in each of the last two games. And if he happens to push for 12-15 touches, Mitchell is the type of playmaker who can do a lot of damage with that amount of volume.

 

WR Zay Jones: In the two games without Christian Kirk available, Jones has played 93% and 84% of the snaps. He has combined for a whopping 22 targets in those games as well, including 14 last week. Those 22 targets have only resulted in 10 catches for 107 yards but that’s some major target volume for a guy who is only $5,600.

 

K Justin Tucker / K Brandon McManus: The windy conditions are a concern for the kickers tonight but there’s still a strong chance we’ll see more field goals than touchdowns in this match-up. Tucker has the big name value and is playing on the better offense, so he’ll be the more popular play. However, McManus has actually been the #4 kicker in FPPG this season (Tucker: #8 kicker in FPPG) and could be viewed as a bit of a leverage play.

 

Ravens D/ST: One of the best all-around defensive units that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA, 9th in rush DVOA, and 2nd in total DVOA. They rank 2nd in the NFL in fantasy PPG and they’ll make for a solid FLEX option tonight.

 

WR Nelson Agholor: Agholor should play around half of the snaps as the Ravens' primary slot man and the Jags have allowed the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs L4Weeks.

 

WR Jamal Agnew: Agnew has been on the IR since week 11 but he was activated this week and could fill in as the Jags WR3. Parker Washington ($4,000) has filled in admirably since Christian Kirk went down, and he caught touchdowns in each of the last two weeks. So it’s far from a lock that Agnew will overtake Washington on the depth chart. But, if he does, he could play 40-60% of the snaps and is the stone minimum $200.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

WR Zay Flowers

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Lamar Jackson, WR Zay Flowers, WR Odell Beckham Jr.: Standard CPTN Jackson double-stack. Due to the amount of value Jackson can tack on with his rushing ability, he may not always do enough as a passer to support two receivers. So, a CPTN Jackson single-receiver stack is certainly a fine approach as well. I would play at least one of Flowers or OBJ in any CPTN Jackson lineups, but other Ravens pass catchers to mix in include (in order of preference): TE Isaiah Likely, WR Nelson Agholor, and WR Rashod Bateman.

*WR Zay Flowers, QB Lamar Jackson, TE Evan Engram: Flowers has looked like a focal point these last two weeks without TE Mark Andrews available so he’ll provide plenty of captain-worthy upside. Stack him with Jackson and run it back with TE Evan Engram, who seems to be benefiting from Christian Kirk’s absence the last couple of games.

*TE Evan Engram, QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Keaton Mitchell: Engram has scored his first, second, and third touchdowns of the season in the last two weeks. He’s simply been a super reliable pass catcher for Trevow Lawrence this season, catching 81.6% of his targets this season -- 95.2% catch% L2Weeks. So we’ll run with that TE/QB stack and use the explosive rookie RB Keaton Mitchell as the bring-back play.

*QB Trevor Lawrence, TE Evan Engram, WR Zay Jones: Standard CPTN Lawrence double-stack. Other Jags receiving options to consider (in order of preference): WR Calvin Ridley, WR Parker Washington/WR Jamal Agnew (not sure who will be the WR3), and RB Travis Etienne Jr.

*RB Travis Etienne Jr., K Brandon McManus, QB Lamar Jackson: As mentioned, ETN is much more of a sensible FLEX than a captain option, but I do believe he’ll have a good chance to combine for 80-100 total yards, including a few receptions, and a likely chance at a touchdown. ETN’s -106 anytime touchdown odds are the best among all players in this game. We’ll work some correlation while saving some salary by sliding K Brandon McManus in the FLEX and roll with a premiere bring-back option in QB Lamar Jackson.

*WR Odell Beckham Jr., QB Lamar Jackson, RB Travis Etienne Jr.: OBJ has hauled in at least 97+ yards OR a touchdown in four of the last five games, so he’ll have some low-end captain appeal. With his affordable captain salary of $10,800, we can roll with a pair of high-end FLEX plays like Lamar Jackson and ETN while still having a manageable $5,533/player remaining for the final three FLEX plays.

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No PrizePicks plays for this one!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!