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Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.5) | 42.5 O/U

MIN: 20.0 Implied Points | DEN: 22.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Justin Jefferson - OUT/IR, RB Alexander Mattison - Questionable (expected to play), QB Kirk Cousins - OUT/IR, RB Cam Akers - OUT/IR, TE Greg Dulcich - OUT/IR, WR Brandon Johnson - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Vikings - 24, Broncos - 21

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Vikings, 4-2 Broncos

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs may be the best underdog story of the 2023 NFL season and he heads into week 11 as the QB7 in fantasy. He’s not the most polished passer but he has been an excellent dual threat. Dobbs’ 368 rushing yard total (36.8 YPG) is second among all NFL QBs, behind only Lamar Jackson. In fantasy scoring, that rushing production equates to nearly an extra touchdown pass per game. Dobbs has rushed for a touchdown in four consecutive games and has scored at least 24.92 DKFP in his last three games. The Broncos' defense has been playing significantly better as of late but, on the season, they’re allowing a 72.3% completion%, 1.9 pass TDs/gm, and they rank dead last in pass DVOA and last in total DVOA. The match-up isn’t as easy as some of those Broncos season-long defensive statistics would indicate, but Dobbs is going to remain a top captain option as the man simply seems to get the job done. He’s had highly productive games against much tougher defenses (than the Broncos) this season.

TE TJ Hockenson: There was a glimmer of hope that superstar WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring) would return from the IR for this game but the Vikings have ultimately decided to shut him down for another week. Tight end TJ Hockenson has emerged as the primary beneficiary from JJ’s absence. In the last five games (all without Jefferson), Hockenson has commanded a team-high 32.4% target% and 36.6% air yard%. With Dobbs in at QB the last two weeks, Hockenson has combined for a whopping 27 targets, 18 receptions, 203 yards, and a touchdown. He’ll get a stellar match-up against a Broncos defense that checks in at 26th in TE DVOA and has allowed the most FPPG to the TE position.

RB Javonte Williams: Now that he’s looking mostly healthy, the Broncos have not hesitated to hand the lion’s share of the RB work over to Williams. He has logged his three highest snap rates over the last three games which has resulted in an average of 24.3 touches/gm and 17.5 FPPG as well as 15 redzone touches. Unfortunately, he’ll draw a tough match-up against a Vikings run defense that has been quite stingy. Minnesota is allowing the 8th fewest FPPG to RBs on the season and check in at 12th in rush DVOA. However, they have allowed 6.3 receptions/gm to RBs over their last four games, so Williams could certainly do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield. Regardless of match-up, any RB that has a strong chance to handle 20+ touches is going to be a prime captain candidate in these single-game formats.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Russell Wilson: The passing yardage has been very low (200.7 pass YPG) but Wilson has still averaged 2.0 pass TDs/gm while tacking on 25.7 rush YPG. He hasn’t shown enough consistent upside to be a go-to captain candidate, but Wilson is typically good for 15-20 FP and he has scored at least 15.18 FP in seven of nine games this season. A similar result tonight would likely land him in the optimal lineup as a FLEX play. It’s a bit of a tricky match-up against the Vikings (9th in pass DVOA, 10th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs L4Games) but Wilson has displayed a strong floor in tougher match-ups than this one.

WR Jordan Addison: Addison has seen at least seven targets in each of the last four games and he’s had a nose for the endzone with five touchdown receptions across his last six games, though, he has not connected with QB Joshua Dobbs for a score yet. As the Vikings’ top (healthy) perimeter receiver, Addison (75% PerimeterRoute%) will likely face plenty of shadow coverage from Pat Surtain II, but that hasn’t been a death sentence for opposing WR1s this season. Denver ranks 27th in WR1 DVOA on the season and Surtain is allowing 0.38 fantasy points per route covered.

WR Courtland Sutton: Sutton has snagged a TD in seven of nine games this season and owns a terrific 33.3% redzone target%. He has run 77% of his routes on the perimeter and the Vikings have surrendered the 6th most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season. Sutton did tie season highs in receptions (8) and targets (11) last week so his fantasy value is not necessarily completely reliant on catching a touchdown, though that has been where a large chunk of his (fantasy) production has stemmed from. Nonetheless, he’ll land firmly on the FLEX/contrarian captain radar in this game.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

RB Ty Chandler: RB Alexander Mattison (concussion/questionable) was able to clear concussion protocol ahead of schedule and is expected to play tonight. That’s going to ding Chandler’s value and, at $7,000, he’s pricey for the sorts of players I normally consider for this section. That said, it could be fair to assume that Chandler will work ahead of Mattison, who has been largely ineffective this season. Chandler punched in a touchdown last week and, on a per-carry basis, Chandler (3.8 YPC) has been slightly better than Mattison (3.5 YPC). As discussed, the Broncos' defense has been much improved lately but they still check in at 32nd in rush DVOA and have allowed the most FPPG to RBs this season.

WR Marvin Mims Jr.: Mims is a definite goose egg candidate and he’s not overly cheap for this game but that will keep his ownership suppressed, making him a strong leverage play. Mims did play a season-high 69% of snaps last week (previous season-high was 39%) so it seems that the Broncos may be trying to get the speedy rookie more involved, even though the targets have not been there just yet. Mims is largely seen as a deep threat and has averaged 22.7 yards per reception this season… albeit on just 11 catches. But one or two big plays could be enough to land him in the optimal lineup tonight.

K Greg Joseph / K Will Lutz: It will be a bit windy at times during this game but there’s a decent chance we’ll see more field goals than touchdowns tonight. Joseph has scored double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games and Lutz has put up 15 FP in two of his last three. Kickers aren’t exciting plays and predicting field goals is a crapshoot, but both will be in play as a “last guy in” for DFS lineups tonight.

Vikings D/ST / Broncos D/ST: There isn’t much separating either defense in this one but there is a strong chance that one of the D/STs will emerge as an optimal FLEX play. The Vikings D/ST has secured at least eight fantasy points in five of the last seven games while the Broncos D/ST has mended some of their early season issues and they’ll have the home-field advantage tonight. Denver held the potent Chiefs offense to nine points and scored 15 FP a couple of games back, so they’ve shown some quality upside recently.

RB Samaje Perine: The Broncos have unleashed Javonte Williams as their bellcow back, which has taken touches away from Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. Perine is still playing plenty of third downs and his 12.0% target% is fourth on the team. It would be nice if he was a touch cheaper but he will have some receiving upside out of the backfield and could always break off a big catch and run.

WR Jalen Nailor: Nailor was sidelined for much of the season with a hamstring injury but he returned last week and ended up playing 92% of the snaps. He was mostly an afterthought, catching his lone target for 16 yards. WR KJ Osborn was also out with a concussion and will be back this week. However, Osborn runs most of his routes out of the slot whereas Nailor is generally lined up on the perimeter so Nailor’s return could take more snaps away from WR Brandon Powell. While he may not see a 90+% snap% again tonight, Nailor’s high snap rate last week suggests he’s going to command a significant number of plays tonight. At the stone minimum of $200, he may be the best pure punt play in this game.

Sunday Night Football TD Call

TE TJ Hockenson

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Joshua Dobbs, TE TJ Hockenson, WR Jordan Addison: Standard CPTN Dobbs double-stack. Hockenson feels like the guy you’ll want to lock in with any CPTN Dobbs builds, especially when factoring in the Broncos struggles against tight ends this season, but Addison could be interchangeable with one of the other cheaper WRs (Osborn, Powell, Nailor).

*TE TJ Hockenson, QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Javonte Williams: It’s hard to miss how heavily Hockenson has been involved with Justin Jefferson sidelined. 27 targets in the last two weeks alone and he leads the Vikings in target share AND air yards over the last five games. We’ll stack Hock with Dobbs in the FLEX and roll with a strong correlation bring-back play with Javonte Williams.

*RB Javonte Williams, QB Russell Wilson, K Will Lutz: Broncos-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every point scored by Denver tonight. As discussed, the volume has been excellent for Williams over the last three games and he’s handling the bulk of the redzone work as well.

*QB Russell Wilson, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Marvin Mims Jr.: Standard CPTN Wilson double-stack. Neither Sutton nor Mims will be a MUST-have in CPTN Wilson lineups, though, Sutton will be the most favorable option due to his redzone/touchdown potential. Other DEN pass catchers to mix in w/ CPTN Wilson lineups: WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Adam Trautman, and RB Samaje Perine -- RB Javonte Williams should also see some targets from Wilson.

*WR Jordan Addison, QB Joshua Dobbs, WR Jalen Nailor: Addison was a touchdown machine with QB Kirk Cousins at the helm but Dobbs has still looked in his direction quite a bit in his two games with the Vikings. Addison will have one more week to lay claim to WR1 duties with Jefferson nearing his return. Look for a solid game out of the rookie tonight and we’ll of course stack him with QB Dobbs in the FLEX. Punting with Nailor, who played 92% of the snaps last week and is priced at the $200 minimum, will leave $8,866/player for the remaining three FLEX spots -- plenty of $$$ for two or three high-end plays.

*WR Courtland Sutton, QB Russell Wilson, RB Ty Chandler: Sutton and Wilson have connected on seven touchdowns this season so we’ll like the upside with this pairing. The hope with Ty Chandler as the bring-back play is that he’ll lead the Vikings backfield in touches even with Alexander Mattison expected to suit up.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

TJ Hockenson + Courtland Sutton MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Jordan Addison MORE than 47.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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