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Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6) | 44 O/U

CHI: 19.0 Implied Points | WAS: 25.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Chase Claypool - OUT, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. - Questionable

Score Prediction: CHI - 17, WAS - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Commanders, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bears, 5-1 Commanders (GPP sprinkle)

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Justin Fields: It took a few weeks but we saw a ceiling-type performance out of third-year QB Justin Fields as he racked up four touchdowns and 360 total yards on a hapless Broncos defense in week four. Things may get a bit more difficult for Fields on a short week against a decent Washington defense (18th in DVOA). However, the Commanders have been giving up some strong fantasy scores against fellow mobile QBs in recent weeks, allowing 30.92 DKFP to Russell Wilson in week two, 22.32 DKFP to Josh Allen in week three, and 27.16 DKFP to Jalen Hurts last week. Fields may be far from the most polished passing QB in the NFL but his ability to rack up significant yardage with his legs with the potential for rushing TD(s) will keep him firmly on the captaincy radar despite his slate-high price tag.

WR Terry McLaurin: It’s a prime match-up for Scary Terry as he goes up against a Bears defense that ranks 31st in pass DVOA, 26th in DVOA vs. WR1, and has allowed the 10th most FPPG to perimeter receivers (McLaurin: 81% perimeter%). The Commanders are not a high-flying offense but McLaurin is leading the team in targets, and air yards, ranks 3rd in aDOT (10.3 yards), and has hauled the vast majority of his targets with an 80.8% catch%. McLaurin is coming off a season-high in targets, catches, and receiving yards in week four and seems to be building better and better rapport with QB Sam Howell as the season progresses. We’re not expecting a barn burner on Thursday night, but McLaurin brings a strong floor with solid upside to DFS lineups and makes for a go-to captain candidate.

QB Sam Howell: Outside of a match-up with the Bills, who rank 2nd in both pass DVOA and total DVOA, Sam Howell has posted DKFP totals of 19.6 (@ PHI), 21.26 (@ DEN), and 17.18 (vs. ARI) this season. As noted with McLaurin above, Howell will benefit from a strong match-up against this Bears defense that checks in at 31st in pass DVOA and has allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs. Howell can also add value with his ability as a running QB and put up a season-high 40 rush yards on six carries last week. I’d normally prefer a WR or RB as my captain selection, but I have a feeling that one of these QBs will end the night as the optimal captain on Thursday night.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR DJ Moore: I’m not in love with this $10,000 price tag on Moore in an offense that struggles to throw beyond 200 yards most weeks. However, I do believe that the absence of WR Chase Claypool (out/non-injury) has a tangible impact on Moore’s ceiling. Claypool played 81% of snaps over the first three games and drew 14 targets. Last week, with Claypool sidelined (coach’s decision) for the first time this season, DJ Moore broke out with a 9-8-131-1 receiving line and scored 30.1 DKFP -- the targets, receptions, and yards were all season-highs. Moore is the Bears’ WR1 regardless of Claypool’s availability, and we can’t put too much stock in anything that happens against that Broncos defense. But it’s simply one less receiver available to threaten Moore’s targets, snaps, and receiving production. Moore, who runs roughly 85% of his routes on the perimeter, sets up well against a Commanders defense that has surrendered the 8th most FPPG to perimeter WRs and ranks 23rd in pass DVOA.

RB Brian Robinson Jr.: I nearly slid B-Rob in the “top captains” section above but, due to his lack of involvement as a receiver out of the backfield, he’ll likely need a multi-touchdown game to finish the night as the optimal captain selection. That’s certainly doable as he has one multi-TD game already this season with four total TDs but, in general, he sets up best as a FLEX play rather than a go-to captain play. Robinson (52% snap%) splits snaps pretty evenly with Antonio Gibson (45% snap%) but Robinson has heavily out-paced him in carries, 61-to-13. Robinson has accounted for 66.3% of Washington’s rush attempts and 61.3% of their rushing yardage with 14 total redzone opportunities (vs. Gibson’s three RZ opportunities). The Bears have allowed the most rushing yards to RBs this season and the 3rd most FPPG to RBs. Assuming he handles his typical workload of 15-20 touches, Robinson will be a prime FLEX option on TNF and is worth a look as a contrarian captain play as well.

WR Curtis Samuel: He was on the injury report with a quadriceps issue this week but, as of Wednesday, Samuel has shed his “questionable” designation and will be good to go on Thursday. Samuel fills the short-yardage receiving role, primarily out of the slot, and will occasionally mix in with a carry or two out of the backfield. While he’s not going to see any deep looks down the field, his short aDOT targets have led to an excellent 85.0% catch% this season. Samuel found the endzone for the first time this season in week four and also saw a season-high eight targets. He’s fairly priced at $5,600 and his “gadget guy” type of role makes him a valuable asset for the Commanders, particularly in the redzone.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Cole Kmet: At $6,400, Kmet is on the pricier side for players that I usually consider for this section but his touchdown upside is going to keep him in play for TNF showdown lineups. He broke out for a 9-7-85-2 game this past Sunday and has plenty of rapport built up with QB Justin Fields. Kmet also leads the team with a 27.3% redzone target% and has the same amount of targets (24) as top WR DJ Moore. I won’t be going heavy on Kmet, however, as the Commanders have been brutal against TEs, allowing the fewest FPPG to the position this season. Consider Kmet more of a “TD or bust” FLEX filler.

Commanders D/ST: Opposing D/STs have averaged 14.0 FPPG and 2.3 turnovers/gm against the Bears this season. Justin Fields has also been the 3rd most-sacked QB in the NFL and the Bears hold just a 19.0 implied team total. Given the low-scoring nature of Thursday Night Football games, this will be a quality spot to get some shares of the home team’s D/ST.

K Joey Slye: Slye will be the preferred kicker in this match-up and is somewhat surprisingly priced $400 cheaper than Bears kicker Cairo Santos. Winds won’t be an issue and Slye has averaged two FGA per game this season. He has also connected on a pair of 50+ yarders and has made all nine of his XPAs.

RB Antonio Gibson: I’m not big on this play but, assuming nothing significantly changes with the Commanders' game plan, Gibson is going to be on the field for roughly half of offensive snaps. He’s the preferred receiving back over Brian Robinson Jr. and could always break off a big play or two. And, while we never wish or count on injuries, it’s always a possibility in football, especially when it comes to starting RBs. If B-Rob were to go down, Gibson would be the primary back for the remainder of the game. Worth a dart throw at $3,200.

WR Equanimeous St. Brown: From a snaps perspective, St. Brown is the primary beneficiary from the Chase Claypool absence. He was bumped up to WR3 on the depth chart and handled 58% of snaps last week. He caught his lone target for 21 yards but the key here moving forward is: more snaps = more opportunity. Not a bad flier at $1,800 but could also give you a zero.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Brian Robinson Jr.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Justin Fields, WR DJ Moore, WR Equanimeous St. Brown: Standard CPTN Fields double-stack. Given how much Fields’ value stems from his rushing ability, he’s not a QB you NEED to stack two [Bears] receivers with when rolling him out at captain, but it’d be difficult not stacking his WR1, DJ Moore, in the FLEX for correlation purposes. With Fields’ huge captain price tag, throwing in a very cheap Equanimeous St. Brown completes an affordable CPTN Fields double-stack and still leaves you with an average of $7,233 for your remaining three FLEX plays.

*WR Terry McLaurin, QB Sam Howell, K Joey Slye: Commander-heavy team stack. Rolling with McLaurin at captain and stacking him with QB Sam Howell in the FLEX is probably my favorite start to lineup builds for this game due to the correlation and high-floor combination.

*QB Sam Howell, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Curtis Samuel: Standard CPTN Howell double-stack.

*WR DJ Moore, QB Justin Fields, RB Brian Robinson Jr.: As discussed in Moore’s spotlighted segment, he has a firm stranglehold as the Bears’ WR1 and, while Chase Claypool (out/non-injury) wasn’t a major part of this offense, it just opens up more targets for Moore with him out of the picture. Complete the WR/QB stack with Fields in the FLEX and roll with Brian Robinson Jr. as a premium “bring-back” option.

*RB Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders D/ST, RB Khalil Herbert: I could easily see this Thursday night match-up being a low-scoring grind-it-out type of game with heavy involvement from both ground attacks. Robinson can operate as a bellcow back and has the most multi-touchdown upside of any player on either side. Roll with the Commanders D/ST for correlation purposes and RB Khalil Herbert for the “ground and pound” game script narrative.

*WR Curtis Samuel, QB Sam Howell, QB Justin Fields: I’m a sucker for sure-handed receivers who have a dynamic role in their respective offense. Curtis Samuel is that guy for Washington and is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season while playing a season-high 54 offensive snaps. Volume alone won’t be enough to land him in the optimal lineup (at captain) but he has sneaky touchdown potential and his affordable salary lets you easily jam in high-end plays, like both QBs, in the FLEX.

5-1 Commanders “smash” builds: Far too often, the Bears seem unable to get out of their own way so, even though the Commanders are far from an elite team, they are at home and are the “better” team. Sprinkle in a 5-1 Commanders “smash” build here and there in GPPs to separate yourself from the field in the event of a Washington blowout win.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Cody Barton MORE than 8.5 Tackles + Assists

Khalil Herbert MORE than 11.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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