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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4) | 46 O/U

CIN: 21.0 Implied Points | BAL: 25.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Tee Higgins - OUT, WR Andrei Iosivas - OUT, WR Devin Duvernay - Questionable, WR Charlie Jones - Questionable

Score Prediction: Bengals - 20, Ravens - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Ravens, 4-2 Bengals

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Ja’Marr Chase: This Baltimore defense is scary good, ranking 2nd in overall DVOA and 2nd in pass DVOA. They’re allowing the fewest PPG (15.7) and the fewest yards per completion (7.8). Ja’Marr Chase is going to be highly rostered regardless, but the match-up may scare folks away from utilizing him as a captain play. But it’s worth noting that Baltimore hasn’t been totally dominant against WR1s, ranking 18th in WR1 DVOA. Chase put up a forgettable 5-31-0 receiving line on eight targets when these teams met back in week two. But QB Joe Burrow was also still in his early-season rut. Tee Higgins was also active in that game and emerged with a huge 12-8-89-2 target/receiving line (28.9 DKFP). Higgins will be out for a second consecutive game and, historically, Chase has dominated the target share when Higgins has been out. Due to his game-high $11,000 salary ($16,500 CPTN salary), Chase is probably safer as a FLEX play, perhaps even a fade candidate, but he’s also the highest ceiling player in this game, so fade at your own risk!

QB Lamar Jackson: It’s been three down games in a row for Lamar Jackson heading into week 11 but that shouldn’t sway us away from utilizing him as a high-ceiling captain on Thursday night. Jackson easily leads all NFL QBs with 481 rushing yards (48.1 YPG) and he’s completing 72.9% of his passes at home this season. The Bengals are surrendering 325.5 pass YPG and the 4th most FPPG to QBs over their last four games. They’ve also allowed the 7th most rushing yards to QBs this season.

TE Mark Andrews: Andrews ranks 4th among all NFL TEs with a 21.6% target% and he’s 3rd in FPPG. He also owns an excellent 31.7% redzone target% and his 13 redzone targets have resulted in six TDs this season. The match-up doesn’t get much better as the Bengals have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to TEs this season and 82.5 YPG to the position over their last four games. Andrews has a great chance at not one, but two touchdowns in this game, which would be his third multi-touchdown performance of the season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Joe Burrow: Burrow is rolling right now but he faces a true test on the road versus this stout Ravens defense that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA and has allowed the fewest FPPG to QBs this season. Burrow has scored at least 24.88 DKFP in four of his last five games and, though he will be without WR Tee Higgins, he’s shown that he can operate just fine with the healthy receivers that he does have at his disposal. He has completed 74.1% of his passes since week five and there is a strong chance the Bengals will either be playing from behind or in a neutral game script throughout this game, which would lead to a pass-heavy script for and strong potential for 40+ Burrow pass attempts.

WR Zay Flowers: The impressive rookie leads the Ravens with a 24.9% target% this season and has caught 73.5% of his targets. He has just one touchdown on the season but has still retained a strong 24.4% redzone target%. Flowers should draw the most coverage from CB Cam Taylor-Britt, which represents the best WR/CB match-up among Ravens wide receivers. Taylor-Britt has easily been the most targeted CB in the Bengals secondary as opposing QBs have targeted receivers in his coverage on 27% of routes.

TE Tyler Boyd: With Higgins out, Boyd drew a team-high 12 targets last week, which represented a 30.0% target%. Boyd runs out of the slot 88% of the time, and the slot is where the Ravens have been most vulnerable. It’s far from a cakewalk match-up, but Baltimore has allowed the 13th most FPPG to slot WRs L4Weeks (vs. 6th fewest to perimeter WRs L4Weeks). Boyd’s 6.9-yard aDOT will lead to plenty of high-percentage targets and he’ll be a prime FLEX target with some moderate captain appeal as well.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

RB Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell has had a couple of breakout performances in the last two weeks. After beginning the season on IR, Mitchell has shown off some big play ability and is averaging an eye-popping 14.3 YPC. He has only played a 24% and 18% snap share in those last two games, but he doesn’t exactly need significant volume to return value. Gus Edwards ($7,000) will be the safer floor play and has scored a touchdown in four straight games, but Mitchell is the home run threat and could take on a heavier workload based on what he’s shown the Ravens’ coaching staff lately.

K Justin Tucker / K Evan McPherson: We’ve got two of the best kickers in the NFL featured in this game. By Tucker’s lofty standards, it’s been a down season for him and the Ravens are also converting 64.3% of redzone possessions into touchdowns (ranks 4th in NFL), so he’s getting fewer FG opportunities. He’s still firmly on the FLEX radar, but McPherson may end up being the preferred kicker option in this game. Not only is McPherson $1,400 cheaper than Tucker, but he has connected on five 50+ yard FGs this season to Tucker’s one 50+ yarder. It’s not a heavy lean, but if forced to choose one kicker, McPherson seems like the guy to go with.

Ravens D/ST: Burrow and the Bengals offense has been clicking nicely but the Ravens defense is as stingy as it gets. The Ravens D/ST is putting up 11.6 FPPG at home this season and has scored at least 12 FP in three of their last four games.

WR Trenton Irwin: In the two games that WR Tee Higgins has been sidelined in this season (weeks 5 and 10), Irwin has stepped in as the WR3 and played 76% and 81% of the snaps. In those two games, he has combined for 14 targets, 12 receptions, 114 yards, and a touchdown. Tough match-up and all that, but Irwin has some obvious FLEX appeal at his $4,400 salary.

RB Justice Hill: The Ravens backfield is quite the conundrum and the recent emergence of Keaton Mitchell combined with Lamar Jackson’s continued rushing involvement means Justice Hill may be the odd man out. But, realistically, there’s no real way to predict how the backfield touches will shake out. Hill will be the lowest-owned Ravens RB (among the Edwards, Mitchell, Hill trio) yet it could randomly be “his week” to lead in RB touches. Hill could always luck into a touchdown near the goal line as well and is a solid leverage play at a low price point ($2,800).

TE Tanner Hudson: Hudson isn’t playing the majority of snaps (31% and 23% snap% L2Weeks) but, when he is out there running routes, Joe Burrow is looking his way early and often. Despite playing 36 combined snaps in the last two games, Hudson has been targeted 12 times, resulting in 10 catches for 78 yards. That has equated to a 40% target per route run rate. The Bengals tight end group is a bit of a mess but Hudson is separating himself as the primary receiving TE.

WR Nelson Agholor: Agholor is a goose egg candidate but he has played the second-most snaps among Ravens WRs this season, just ahead of OBJ and Rashod Bateman. The targets haven’t been there lately but, if he continues to play 40-50% of the snaps, he could always luck into a handful of targets. Worth a dart throw at $800.

WR Charlie Jones: Consider Jones to be the “puntiest” of punt plays. He’s been practicing in full this week and should likely come off of the IR ahead of this game. If so, he could operate as the Bengals’ WR4 with Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas out. Iosivas played 28% and 32% of the snaps in weeks five and 10 (no Higgins in those games). So, if Jones is the guy to soak up those WR4 snaps, it would only take a couple of catches for him to return value. Jones has some shiftiness to him and returned a punt for a touchdown against the Ravens back in week two.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

TE Mark Andrews

Remember to participate in the TNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! The tweet will be posted later today. Retweet for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Joe Burrow, K Evan McPherson: Bengals-heavy stack that could potentially give you exposure to every offensive point that they score.

*QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, WR Zay Flowers: Standard CPTN Jackson double-stack featuring his two most targeted receivers.

*TE Mark Andrews, QB Lamar Jackson, WR Tyler Boyd: I believe Andrews brings in at least one touchdown in this game. The Bengals have been a dream match-up for tight ends and he’s probably my favorite non-QB captain in this game. We’ll want to stack him with Lamar Jackson in the FLEX. WR Tyler Boyd works as a strong bring-back play with the Ravens’ stout defense being most vulnerable against slot WRs, and this three-man stack still leaves $6,400/player left over for the remaining three FLEX plays.

*QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Trenton Irwin: As discussed multiple times, this is a very rough match-up for the Bengals passing game but Burrow has been locked in over the last month-plus. If he emerges as the optimal captain, I imagine Chase will almost certainly land in the optimal lineup out of the FLEX, so I’d likely attach Chase to all CPTN Burrow lineups. Irwin would be interchangeable with guys like WR Tyler Boyd, TE Tanner Hudson, or even WR Charlie Jones if you’re feeling extra bold (assuming he’s activated off IR).

*WR Zay Flowers, QB Lamar Jackson, K Justin Tucker: I’m a big fan of Flowers’ game and the Ravens have made it a point to get the ball in his hands in plenty of games this season. He draws a strong CB match-up against Cam Taylor-Britt and is due for some positive touchdown regression based on his 24.4% redzone target% (but just one TD this season). Pair him with Lamar Jackson and work in K Justin Tucker for some Ravens offensive correlation.

*WR Tyler Boyd, QB Joe Burrow, QB Lamar Jackson: Boyd should be peppered with targets… maybe not as much as last week (12 targets, 8 catches, 117 yards) but, as mentioned, he does own the most advantageous match-up for Bengals WRs out of the slot. Since he’s a more affordable captain, we can load up on both QBs with relative ease, leaving $6,333/player for the remaining three FLEX plays.

*Ravens D/ST, RB Keaton Mitchell, TE Mark Andrews: Primetime match-ups have had the overwhelming tendency to become low-scoring defensive struggles this season -- even more so on Thursday Night Football when both teams are coming off of a short week (and close, heartbreaking losses). The Ravens' defense is one of, if not THE, best in the NFL, and they’ve been at their best at home. The Ravens' D/ST is worth some contrarian captain shares if you’re entering plenty of lineups into TNF contests.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Mark Andrews + Keaton Mitchell MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Tyler Boyd MORE than 44.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!