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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) | 46.5 O/U

DEN: 18.3 Implied Points | KC: 28.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: TE Travis Kelce - Questionable (expected to play), TE Greg Dulcich - Questionable

Score Prediction: DEN - 16, KC - 26

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Chiefs, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Chiefs, 4-2 Broncos

Weather Note: The forecast for this game sets up with sustained winds around 20 mph with 30-40 mph gusts along with a solid chance for rain. Less than ideal conditions for both offenses.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

TE Travis Kelce: If the current forecast for this game holds (~20 mph winds, 30-40 mph gusts, potential for rain), any semblance of a downfield passing attack will be difficult to come by for either team. Kelce, who is officially questionable with an ankle injury but expected to play, rarely operates deep down the field and has averaged a short 4.7-yard aDOT on the season while hauling in 73.0% of his targets. In the four games Kelce has played, his 25.7% target% leads the team, by far, with the next closest player, WR Rashee Rice, owning just a 13.2% target% in that same span. Couple this with the fact that the Broncos rank dead last in pass DVOA and have allowed the 4th most receiving YPG to TEs and you can see how this is a strong landing spot for Kelce even if he’s not at 100% health.

RB Isiah Pacheco: Given the ugly forecast, this looks like a game where Pacheco should be heavily featured and have the potential to rip off a ceiling performance. He has been “the guy” for the last two games now, accounting for 73.9% and 76.7% of the Chiefs’ running back touches. As usual, Jerick McKinnon will get some work in on passing downs and two-minute drives, but he has yet to play more than 33% of snaps in a game this season. Meanwhile, Pacheco has logged season highs in snap% the last two weeks (60% and 59%) and has out-snapped Clyde Edwards-Helaire 81-to-15. Pacheco’s match-up could hardly get any better. The Broncos have allowed, by far, the most FPPG to RBs this season while ranking 31st in rush DVOA.

WR Jerry Jeudy: I was indecisive on which player I wanted to spotlight as the third captain candidate and core FLEX play, but I have ultimately landed on Jerry Jeudy. He has not broken off a ceiling game in any of his four performances, but Jeudy has seen over half of the Broncos air yards in the last two weeks and draws a plus match-up against the Chiefs, who have allowed the 7th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks (Jeudy: 68% slot%). Fellow Broncos WR Courtland Sutton will draw a tough match-up against CB L’Jarius Sneed, who has been shadowing the opposing team’s top perimeter WR this season. Despite having a fairly deep 13.2-yard aDOT, Jeudy has caught 70.8% of his targets. I do believe Jeudy will still see some deeper looks, despite the windy conditions on Thursday night, but I’d also expect some high percentage short/intermediate targets where Jeudy could have a chance to create bigger plays after the catch.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Patrick Mahomes: Given his slate-high $12,800 base salary, Mahomes is going to cost you $19,200 if you choose to roll him out in the 1.5x captain position. Once again, given the windy and potentially wet weather, I do not see a ceiling game happening here for Mahomes even though it’s a stellar match-up against Denver (32nd in pass DVOA). That will lead me to primarily utilize Mahomes as a high-end FLEX play. I believe 250-270 yards with a couple of touchdowns is attainable for Mahomes here, despite the weather. Prior to last week, Mahomes had racked up at least 28 yards rushing in each of the first four games of the season and I believe he’ll mix in some rushing production in this game as well.

QB Russell Wilson: It’s a similar thought process as Mahomes in that I have a hard time imagining a ceiling type of performance out of Russell Wilson on Thursday night. He has been a solid fantasy option lately, averaging 21.3 FPPG in the last four games. However, the Chiefs have been quite stingy against QBs, allowing just 15.2 FPPG to the position this season (8th lowest) and they’ve ranked 10th in pass DVOA. Regardless, Wilson and the Broncos, who are 10-point underdogs, will likely be playing from behind in this game so they’ll be unable to abandon the pass at any point and will need to stay aggressive even if they keep the game close or within striking distance. Wilson has run for at least 49 yards in two games this season, so he could provide some value with his legs as well. In two games versus the Chiefs last season, Wilson combined for 84 yards rushing and had two rushing TDs.

RB Jaleel McLaughlin: The Broncos backfield is a headache, especially with Javonte Williams returning from a one-game absence. That said, Jaleel McLaughlin has provided some big play ability which is something the 1-4 Broncos are in desperate need of. He is averaging 7.3 YPC and has caught 7-of-8 targets for 46 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Both run games should be upgraded in these weather conditions to begin with and McLaughlin has played well enough to, at worst, operate as the RB2 in this offense ahead of Samaje Perine. No matter which Broncos RB you elect to go with, if any, there will be some significant volume concerns. But McLaughlin has made the most of his touches and, despite playing just 21 snaps last week (33% snap%), he either carried the ball or was targeted on 13 plays. If this works out to about a 40/40/20 sort of RB split between Williams/McLaughlin/Perine, I’ll place the most faith in the shifty and quick McLaughlin making the largest impact.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Rashee Rice: The Chiefs wide receiver group is another frustrating one to both trust and analyze. But, as touched on in Kelce’s spotlight, Rashee Rice’s 13.2% target% in the last four weeks has ranked second on the team even though he has just a 40% snap% in that span. When he is on the field, he’s seeing an NFL-leading 36.4% targets per route run rate (see Tweet below). Drops have been an issue for Rice but he did reel in his second touchdown of the season last week and seems to be a favorite option for Patrick Mahomes once the Chiefs venture into the redzone. Rice’s eight redzone targets represent a team-leading 27.6% RZ target% and most of his targets come on the short/intermediate range based on his 5.6-yard aDOT -- that’s worth mentioning since we’re expecting a lot of shorter passes in this game due to the windy weather. I’m not sure if Rice can break into the optimal lineup based on his usual volume alone, but if he finds the endzone again, he’ll (likely) make for an optimal FLEX play.

Chiefs D/ST: Defenses often thrive in wet/windy weather so we’ll look for a solid fantasy output from the Chiefs defense in this one. And, for what it’s worth, the Chiefs D/ST has scored between 15 and 24 fantasy points in four of the last eight meetings with the Broncos over the last four years and they’ve scored less than 8 fantasy points just once in that span. Russell Wilson has also been the 6th most sacked QB in the NFL this season.

WR Kadarius Toney: This sets up as a game where Toney’s “gadget guy” skill set could be emphasized. Toney played a season-high in snaps last week which, in turn, helped lead to a season-high six targets. The majority of his looks have come close to the line of scrimmage (2.3-yard aDOT) and he’s picking up an average of 5.9 yards after the catch. Just gotta hope he doesn’t have any costly drops or else he’ll find the bench in a hurry.

TE Greg Dulcich OR TE Adam Trautman (If Dulcich is out): Not much interest in Trautman if Dulcich returns, as he is currently expected to since sustaining a hamstring injury in week one which landed him on the IR. Dulcich played just 21 snaps before he was injured in week one but did catch both of his targets. He showed some rapport with QB Russell Wilson in his 2022 rookie season and figures to be an impact player when healthy. The tight end is also one position that the Chiefs defense has had issues with, allowing the 7th most YPG to TEs this season.

WR Justin Watson: Watson is the go-to deep threat in the Chiefs offense and he owns a team-high 22.5-yard aDOT. As stated ad nauseam, the high winds will downgrade the downfield passing games of both offenses, but it wouldn’t shock me if Watson still sees a couple of deep shots regardless in hopes of catching the Broncos' secondary sleeping. It’s not saying much, but Watson has scored at least 6.5 DKFP in four-of-five games this season and it’s only a matter of time before he connects on a long touchdown pass from Mahomes. It’s a fairly low-risk investment given his $2,200 DK showdown salary.

WR Brandon Johnson: Johnson only has eight catches on 11 targets this season but three of those receptions have gone for touchdowns. He has been on the field for just under half of the offensive snaps this season and has plenty of appeal as a punt play at only $1,200.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Isiah Pacheco

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*TE Travis Kelce, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Greg Dulcich: Kelce is one receiver whose role isn’t really impacted by the windy weather and, if anything, he could be fed even more targets than usual on those shorter routes in the middle of the field. It’s a potential multi-touchdown spot for Kelce against a terrible Broncos defense so we’ll stack him with Mahomes in the FLEX and, to help offset the high cost of that TE/QB stack, run it back with a cheap Broncos receiver like TE Greg Dulcich.

*RB Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs D/ST, RB Jaleel McLaughlin: Both teams could surrender to the elements by leaning on the ground game Thursday night and Pacheco has operated as the clear lead back for Kansas City as of late. We’ll FLEX the Chiefs D/ST for correlation purposes and roll with the shifty, big-play threat in RB Jaleel McLaughlin as the bring-back play.

*WR Jerry Jeudy, QB Russell Wilson, RB Isiah Pacheco: It wouldn’t surprise me if Jeudy has his best fantasy outing of the 2023 season in this game. He draws the most favorable match-up out of the slot and has dominated the Broncos air yards in the previous two games. Stack him with Russ Wilson and bring it back with Pacheco on the other side as a game script correlation play (Chiefs lead so they go run-heavy with Pacheco --> Broncos forced to pass more thus increasing Jeudy/Wilson fantasy upside).

*QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Rashee Rice: Standard CPTN Mahomes double-stack. Kelce should be a near lock in any CPTN Mahomes lineups, but Rice could be interchangeable with the other Chiefs WRs like Toney, Moore, Watson, or MVS. However, Rice is my preferred Chiefs WR due to his redzone involvement.

*QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Greg Dulcich: Standard CPTN Wilson double-stack. Sutton or Brandon Johnson could also work in place of Jeudy or Dulcich.

*RB Jaleel McLaughlin, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce: The Broncos RBs may ‘cannibalize’ each other if the touch volume gets too close to an even three-way split but McLaughlin has passed the eye test lately and looks like a player that Denver needs to give more opportunities to. We’ll see if he can continue his big-play ways and perhaps find the endzone a time or two. Given his more affordable captain salary, we can afford to go for the premium Mahomes/Kelce stack in the FLEX.

*Chiefs D/ST + Four other KC players: This could be a very lopsided game and if it’s a Chiefs blowout win, the Chiefs D/ST could end the night as the optimal captain play. Optimal D/STs at captain do not occur often, but if it does in this one, a 5-1 Chiefs “smash” build may be the way to go.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Isiah Pacheco MORE than 0.5 Pass + Rush + Rec TDs

Jerry Jeudy MORE than 4.5 Receptions

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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