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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-9) | 43 O/U

TB: 17.0 Implied Points | BUF: 26.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Baker Mayfield - Questionable, WR Chris Godwin - Questionable, TE Dawson Knox - OUT, RB Damien Harris - OUT/IR, TE Q. Morris - OUT

Score Prediction: TB - 20, BUF - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bills, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bucs, 5-1 Bills

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Josh Allen: He’s had a pair of primetime duds this season, but I’m not prepared to link any negative correlation there. In Allen’s remaining non-primetime games, he has posted at least 22.32 DKFP, including a couple of 30+ performances. The Bucs rank 14th in pass DVOA and are 14th in FPPG allowed to QBs, which would be higher if they gave up more than 1.0 passing TD/gm. Allen is averaging 2.1 pass TDs/gm and has punched in a rushing touchdown in four of the last five games. It would seem unlikely that the Bucs will continue to remain stingy in the passing TD department so Josh Allen should be viewed as the safest floor play in this game.

WR Stefon Diggs: Diggs has had as strong of a floor as any receiver in fantasy this season and is locked into significant target volume week in and week out. His 33.3% target% ranks 2nd among all NFL receivers, and his 44.8% air yard% ranks 5th. His six receiving TDs also places him in a tie for 2nd. So, he’s getting it done, to say the least, while averaging 96.9 YPG and 24.7 DKFP/gm. He runs roughly the same amount of routes on each perimeter, and in the slot, so he’ll constantly cause mismatches in the Bucs’ secondary. The Bucs rank 22nd in WR1 DVOA this season and will not be likely candidates to slow down Diggs’ dominant 2023 campaign.

TE Dalton Kincaid: Allen and Diggs should be the highest-owned captains on Thursday night but some real captaincy consideration should be given to rookie TE Dalton Kincaid, especially at his low $5,000 salary. The Bills will likely elevate another TE from the practice squad ahead of Thursday night’s kickoff but, as of now, Kincaid is the only healthy tight end on the Bills’ roster with Dawson Knox (wrist) and Quintin Morris (ankle) both ruled out. Kincaid was selected by the Bills with the 25th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and was viewed as a candidate to fill in as a complimentary second receiving option to star WR Stefon Diggs. Kincaid finally had his breakout performance in week seven, where he caught all eight of his targets and led the team in receiving with 75 yards. Multiple Bills receivers have struggled with drops this season but Kincaid has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, ranking 2nd in the league with a 92.6% catch%. At this point, he’s proven to be a very trustworthy receiver for QB Josh Allen to target. It’s a bit of conjecture here, but if we take the redzone target% from the two injured Bills TEs and combine them with Kincaid’s, we’ll get a 31.3% RZ target%, which is identical to Diggs’ RZ target rate. It’s not an easy match-up against the Bucs who rank 5th in TE DVOA and have allowed the 12th fewest FPPG to the position, but Kincaid profiles as more of a hybrid TE/WR and should see a healthy dose of targets regardless.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Mike Evans: Evans has seen an identical 24.9% target% with teammate Chris Godwin, but Evans edges out Godwin in air yard% -- 37.7% to 26.6%. Evans has also hauled in four touchdowns this season to Godwin’s zero TDs. I point this out to show that Evans should be viewed as the Bucs’ WR1, in which case could indicate that he’ll draw a promising match-up against the Bills, who rank 30th in WR1 DVOA. Buffalo has been fairly stingy against wideouts on the season, allowing the 12th fewest FPPG to WRs. However, their defense has also suffered several key injuries and, over the last four weeks, they’re allowing the 12th most FPPG to WRs. QB Baker Mayfield (knee) currently has a “questionable” injury designation but, following a full practice on Wednesday, he should be good to go so there are no worries for Evans and his QB play there. With the Bucs likely playing from behind or in a neutral game script in this match-up, Evans should see steady involvement throughout the night and he has garnered at least eight targets in all but one game this season (which was a blowout 26-9 win over the Saints in week four).

RB Rachaad White: I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Bucs move on from White as their early down tailback -- he currently ranks 34th among qualified rushers with his 3.2 YPC average and he’s creating just 1.1 yards after contact per attempt (ranks 37th). But until any backfield changes are made, White profiles as a decent floor/FLEX play against a Bills defense that has surprisingly allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs over their last four games. As we saw last week (6 catches for 65 yards) White can add to his value as a pass catcher. RBs against the Bills are averaging 7.1 targets/gm for 5.1 receptions/gm and 43.4 YPG. White has scored just one touchdown on the season but is handling 73.7% of the Bucs’ redzone carries, so he’s a decent bet to find the endzone should Buffalo continue to show a weakness to opposing backfields.

WR Gabe Davis: Davis is a volatile option but did have a four-game touchdown streak going this season and draws a favorable match-up. Davis runs most of his routes on the left perimeter and the Bucs have allowed the 7th most FPPG to LWRs this season. While Davis’ 14.8% target% is rather bleak, his looks usually come downfield (15.0-yard aDOT) and he has accounted for a solid 24.5% air yard%. He’s also a candidate to pick up a couple of additional targets, perhaps in the redzone, with TE Dawson Knox sidelined.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Tyler Bass / K Chase McLaughlin: Neither kicker is a priority but both guys have connected on multiple 50+ yarders this season and made 100% of their PATs. Do be mindful of the 10-15 mph winds expected in this game before going too heavy on any kicker exposure.

Bills D/ST: They’re a banged-up defensive unit but the Bills D is averaging 3.4 sacks/gm, 2.0 turnovers/gm, and owns the highest pressure rate in the NFL (29.1%) while holding opponents to 16.9 PPG. Good chance at a double-digit fantasy score here at home and the Bills D/ST is not overly expensive at $4,400.

WR Trey Palmer: He has logged at least a 64% snap% in each of the last four games and, on paper, he draws the best match-up out of the slot. The Bills have allowed the 6th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks. WR Chris Godwin (neck/questionable) was able to log a full practice on Wednesday but if he were to miss this game, Palmer would receive a significant upgrade.

WR Khalil Shakir: Shakir has gradually seen an uptick in snaps with at least a 32% snap% over the last three games. He hasn’t been heavily involved but did garner a season-high four targets last week, catching all four for 35 yards. Prior to last week, Shakir had seen no more than one target in any game this season so he’s a pure dart throw. He does run nearly 80% of his routes out of the slot and the Bucs are giving up the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs.

TE Cade Otton: Otton has played 97% of the snaps this season so he’s virtually always on the field. The targets aren’t plentiful but he does have a pair of six-target games this season and he owns a strong 78.3% catch rate. The Bills rank 20th in TE DVOA.

WR Deonte Hardy: Among the pure dart throws in this game, Hardy may be the best option of the bunch. He is used sparingly but profiles as the speedy gadget guy in this talented Bills offense. He hasn’t played more than a 27% snap% in a game this season, but that did come last week and Buffalo has shown some designed plays for Hardy throughout the season.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn: Vaughn is the de facto RB2 for the Bucs' offense and, while Rachaad White has failed to impress as a rusher, Vaughn has not given them any reason to give him a significant workload based on his meager 1.7 YPC average. Nonetheless, he’s going to see some carries and perhaps a couple of targets against a Bills defense that has been vulnerable against RBs in recent weeks. We don’t need much for value at this $600 price tag.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

TE Dalton Kincaid

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, TE Dalton Kincaid: Standard CPTN Allen double-stack. Diggs should be locked into any CPTN Allen lineups and Kincaid is the favorite to rank second in Bills target share in this game.

*WR Stefon Diggs, QB Josh Allen, TE Cade Otton: The upside of the Diggs/Allen stack can’t be beaten in this game so expect that many lineups will begin with a combination of those two. It is, however, an expensive stack, so we can utilize Otton as a cheap bring-back play and still have a manageable $6,033 left per remaining player.

*TE Dalton Kincaid, QB Josh Allen, WR Mike Evans: If you’re hunting for a value captain, Kincaid should be at the top of the list now that he’s the lone healthy tight end on the active roster (as of Wednesday). Of course, we’ll stack him with Josh Allen and then have enough salary to easily fit in a premium bring-back Bucs play in Mike Evans.

*WR Mike Evans, QB Baker Mayfield, WR Stefon Diggs: Evans has only one ceiling game this season but he has put up at least 17.0 DKFP in 4-of-6 games and is arguably the best DFS play on the Bucs' side of the ball. Mayfield didn’t get a spotlight in this newsletter but we’ll keep the WR/QB correlation going since, if Evans ends up as the optimal captain, Mayfield will likely end up as an optimal FLEX play. It’s a somewhat risky combination, so we’ll splurge on the premium Diggs bring-back play.

*RB Rachaad White, WR Mike Evans, QB Baker Mayfield: Here’s the “Bucs pull off the surprise upset” stack of the night, though, each of these Bucs players could be interchangeable at the captain position. The Bills did just get knocked off by the Pats and narrowly defeated the Giants the week before, so it’s far from a guarantee that they’ll cash in on that nine-point spread.

*WR Gabe Davis, QB Josh Allen, TE Dalton Kincaid + Fade Stefon Diggs: Just a different sort of Bills-heavy stack. Davis, as unreliable as he is, can somewhat routinely pop off for those 100+ yard games with a touchdown or two and he’ll go very under-owned as a captain play thanks to back-to-back dud performances heading into week eight. I doubt Diggs flops on Thursday, but he still needs a pretty big game to pay off his high-end salary, so fading him in this Bills stack could be a viable contrarian route to take.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks play for this one!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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