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Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3) | 34.5 O/U

LAC: 15.8 Implied Points | LV: 18.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Justin Herbert - OUT/IR, WR Keenan Allen - OUT, WR Davante Adams - Questionable, RB Josh Jacobs - Questionable, TE Donald Parham Jr. - Questionable

Score Prediction: Chargers - 13, Raiders - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Raiders, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chargers

Quick Note: This newsletter is being written on Wednesday evening and there is much that can change about the outlook of this game pending further news. The top two Raiders offensive players (Josh Jacobs & Davante Adams) are both questionable to play and there is also no confirmation on who they’ll be starting at QB (Aidan O’Connell or Jimmy Garoppolo). Things are also ugly on the Chargers side with QB Justin Herbert (finger) landing on the IR this week and top WR Keenan Allen (heel) sitting out on Thursday. So, this Thursday Night Football game looks to be extra… Thursday Night Football-y. Tread with caution and keep an ear out for Raiders news leading up to kickoff.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Austin Ekeler: We got a surprising TNF game last week between the Pats and Steelers… might we luck out in another ugly match-up this week? I won’t get my hopes up. Some of the best offensive players are either out or questionable to play for both teams which leads to Ekeler being a go-to captain option for this game. The Chargers passing game gets a significant downgrade with both Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen out with injury so Ekeler’s skillset as an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield looks likely to come in handy on Thursday night. Despite some coachspeak from HC Brandon Staley (quickly becoming one of the biggest phony head coaches in the NFL) last week that Ekeler might be losing touches to Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller, Ekeler ended up playing 72% of the snaps -- his second-high snap rate of the season. Ekeler also saw 17 opportunities to Spiller’s six and Kelley’s three. So, yeah, so much for those comments. Ekeler was struggling in the three games prior to week 14 and nothing is impressive about his 3.7 YPC average this season. But his role as a receiver combined with his redzone versatility will keep him firmly on the captain radar. The Raiders rank 23rd in rush DVOA and have surrendered the 8th most FPPG to RBs this season so there are minimal match-up concerns.

WR Jakobi Meyers: This is one of those games where it just feels like the optimal captain will come somewhere out of the mid-range. The Raiders are noncommittal on who will be their starting QB on Thursday night and WR Davante Adams is also questionable to play due to an illness. The best-case scenario, for Meyers’ sake, would be for Jimmy Garoppolo to return as the starting QB and for Adams to sit out this game. However, it would take just one of those things to happen for me to feel much better about Meyers as a captain option. Meyers has had one truly good game with QB Aidan O’Connell starting (week 12 vs. KC: 6/79/1 receiving line, 20.1 DKFP). He was much more consistent when Jimmy G was at the helm so we’ll approach this play with caution until we have a clearer idea of who is starting and if Adams will play. It’s a strong match-up against a Chargers secondary that ranks 25th in pass DVOA.

WR Joshua Palmer: Palmer will return following a six-game absence due to a knee injury. He comes in as the de facto WR1 with Keenan Allen (heel) ruled out. Of course, Mike Williams’ (knee) season ended way back in week three and rookie WR Quentin Johnston has been slow to develop. It’s an ugly situation with backup QB Easton Stick starting in place of the injured Justin Herbert (finger/IR). But someone has to get the targets for LA and you’ll rarely get a “WR1” at this low of a salary ($6,200 - CPT: $9,300).

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Josh Jacobs / WR Davante Adams: Neither guy has practiced yet this week, but either will be a worthy FLEX/captain play if they suit up. Jacobs is slightly preferred over Adams, but both are fine.

QB Easton Stick: It’s tough to feel good about any QB play in this game but QBs are the most likely players to land in the optimal lineup. Stick came in for the injured Justin Herbert last week and completed 13/24 passes for 179 yards (no TDs, no INTs). While not an efficient showing, that does work out to a respectable 13.8 yards per completion. It’s a big hit not having Keenan Allen available as a safety net, but if Stick can muster around 15 fantasy points, he’s probably landing in the optimal.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Obviously, if Garoppolo isn’t starting, you can’t reliably play him even if there’s a moderate chance he could come in to play if O’Connell gets off to a rough start. However, if the Raiders announce that they’re going to start Garoppolo, he’s a borderline must-play due to his price. DraftKings typically prices backup QBs at a flat $6,000 for these single-game slates, and that’s where Jimmy G is at this week. That would be too much of a bargain to pass up (if he starts).

TE Gerald Everett: Everett was able to shed his “questionable” designation with a full practice on Wednesday. He projects to be a notable benefactor in terms of increased targets with WR Keenan Allen sidelined this week. Fellow Chargers TE Donald Parham Jr. (shoulder/questionable) is also iffy to play after logging three limited practices this week. Of course, it’s not ideal with Mr. Stick in as the starting QB, but Everett did record a season-high eight targets last week with a combination of Herbert and Stick throwing him passes. We’ll like the match-up for Everett as he’ll face a Raiders defense that has allowed the 12th most FPPG to TEs L4Weeks and ranks 25th in TE DVOA.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Quentin Johnston: The rookie first-rounder has received some well-deserved criticism this season but he did put up a season-high 91 yards on three receptions last week. With Keenan Allen missing his first game of the season, Johnston is going to compete with fellow WR Joshua Palmer and perhaps TE Gerald Everett for the team-lead in targets on Thursday night. Johnston is going to play around 90% of the snaps out of necessity and he’ll have some upside as he goes up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks (Johnston: 86% PerimeterRoute%).

K Cameron Dicker / K Daniel Carlson: Neither offense inspires much confidence when it comes to being able to move the ball with any consistency. That said, either kicker is a “fine” FLEX option as there should be more FG attempts than touchdowns in this one. No weather concerns in this domed match-up. Dicker has the bigger leg and has just one FG miss this season, so he’ll likely be the preferred option. However, the Raiders may end up with more success moving into FG range, so Carlson also works as a bit of a leverage option.

Chargers D/ST / Raiders D/ST: Both defenses are FIRMLY in play in this ugly offensive match-up and I wouldn’t fault anyone for doing the ol’ “D/ST captain” experiment. The Raiders D/ST will be the preferred option here.

WR Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow has been criminally underused out of the slot this season but he seems to be benefiting from the head coaching change in Las Vegas. Renfrow has gone for 38+ yards and 4+ targets in three straight games and he’s reeling in 73.5% of his targets this season. Not a bad cheap play to take a gamble on. He’ll get an obvious bump if WR Davante Adams is inactive but could also benefit from an additional role if RB Josh Jacobs doesn’t play either. If the Raiders struggle to run the ball (without Jacobs) then Renfrow could act as an extension of the run game via short/intermediate pass routes.

TE Michael Mayer: Mayer logged a season-high 94% snap% last week and he has played no fewer than 80% of the snaps in any of the previous six games. The targets aren’t always consistent but Mayer is cheap enough to be worthy of a flier and the Chargers have given up the 10th most FPPG to the position this season. Mayer could see a projections bump if WR Davante Adams (illness/questionable) is eventually ruled out.

RB Zamir White: White should handle the bulk of the RB touches IF Josh Jacobs (quad/questionable) is unable to suit up. He’ll likely lose out on some passing down work to RB Ameer Abdullah (who is notably more expensive than White at $4,800). But $3,000 is a tough price to pass up on an RB who should handle 15+ touches against a suspect run defense (LAC: 22nd in rush DVOA, 9th most FPPG allowed to RBs). If Josh Jacobs is active, Zamir White would have virtually zero appeal outside of being a GPP dart throw in the event of Jacobs going down mid-game with another injury.

WR Jalen Guyton: He should play the majority of snaps with Allen out of the picture. However, Guyton has not exactly taken advantage of increased snaps in recent weeks. Historically, he’s been almost exclusively a deep threat and he would need just one or two big plays to return value on his $1,400 salary.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

TE Gerald Everett

Remember to participate in the TNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet that will be posted midday on Thursday for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Austin Ekeler, QB Easton Stick, K Cameron Dicker: Chargers-heavy stack that should give you exposure to every point scored… perhaps they exceed expectations?

*WR Jakobi Meyers, Raiders QB (whoever starts), WR Joshua Palmer: As discussed in his spotlight, the best recipe for Meyers’ TNF success will be if Jimmy G starts and Davante Adams sits. Of course, neither one of those things is guaranteed to happen. He’ll still be in a strong spot against a poor Chargers secondary, so we’ll keep him on the captain radar, stack him with whichever Raiders’ QB starts, and run it back with TE Gerald Everett as a bring-back play, who will need to step up in the absence of WR Keenan Allen.

*WR Joshua Palmer, QB Easton Stick, RB Josh Jacobs (if he’s active): Palmer could realistically see 10+ targets in his first game back from his knee injury. The Chargers are short on reliable pass catchers and are +3 road underdogs. It’s not the sexiest stack, but we’ll keep the correlation rolling by completing the WR/QB stack with Stick in the FLEX. If he suits up, we can roll with a premium bring-back play in Jacobs thanks to Palmer’s cheap CPTN salary. If Jacobs is out, we’ll slide Davante Adams in as the bring-back. If Adams is out, let’s go down to WR Jakobi Meyers.

*RB Josh Jacobs (if he’s active), Raiders D/ST, K Daniel Carlson: Assuming he plays (which is no guarantee), Jacobs will be a go-to captain play, as long as he is not limited in any way. Both the Raiders D/ST and kicker Daniel Carlson offer nice correlation in a CPTN Jacobs stack -- Raiders defense shuts down the Chargers offense, leading to more work for Jacobs, leading to more FG opportunities.

*WR Davante Adams (if he’s active, Raiders QB (whoever starts), RB Austin Ekeler: Similar to the CPTN Meyers stack, just subbing in Adams for Meyers if the star wideout can suit up and running it back with Ekeler instead of Palmer.

*QB Easton Stick, WR Joshua Palmer, WR Quentin Johnston: “Standard” CPTN Stick double-stack featuring his top two wideouts. Boy, some of these stacks are UGLY, but we work with what we’ve got. I have moderate blind faith that Stick will have a decent game on Thursday night but it is worrisome that he won’t have WR Keenan Allen at his disposal. RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett are two other LAC pass catchers worth considering in CPTN Stick lineups while WR Jalen Guyton is more of a boom-or-bust flier.

*QB Jimmy Garoppolo (if he starts), WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Michael Mayer: Not to sound repetitive but obviously scratch this stack if Aidan O’Connell gets the start. But if the Raiders’ decide to get Jimmy G back in as their starting QB, he’s a tough bargain to pass on due to the $6,000 “backup QB” pricing on DraftKings. If Davante Adams plays, he’s an obvious stack candidate with Garoppolo. WR Hunter Renfrow is a worthy, yet unexciting, stack option as well.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

There are limited props available for this game at the time of this writing so I’ll skip the TNF PrizePicks play. Tyler and Shannon will have some recommended picks to roll with on their props video which will be released on the LineStar YouTube channel tomorrow!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!