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New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-10) | 44.5 O/U

NYG: 17.3 Implied Points | SF: 27.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injury News: RB Saquon Barkley - OUT, WR Brandon Aiyuk - Questionable, WR Wan’Dale Robinson - Questionable

Score Prediction: NYG - 13, SF - 30

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 49ers, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 49ers, 4-2 Giants

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Christian McCaffrey: There are very few scenarios where CMC doesn’t make it into the optimal lineup in this game -- and equally as few lineups that won’t have him rostered. The main dilemma will be whether or not to invest in his mountainous $19,800 captain salary or his standard $13,200 base/FLEX salary. Through two weeks, McCaffrey has logged a 92% snap%, including a full 100% snap% last week. With that high snap rate, he has handled 43.9% of the 49ers combined rush attempts and targets. CMC will match up well with a Giants run defense that ranks 24th in rush DVOA and has allowed an NFL-high of 8.5% opponent rushes of 15+ yards.

QB Daniel Jones: If we can see the same version of Daniel Jones that showed up in the second half of last week’s comeback performance, and NOT the version that was on the field making mistake after mistake over the first six quarters of the Giants’ season, then he’ll certainly need to fall in the captain discussion. Jones has contributed 102 yards rushing and a rushing TD through two games and his dual-threat skillset may be further emphasized now that the Giants will be playing without Saquon Barkley (ankle/out) for a few weeks. The 49ers' defense, while talented, can be beaten through the air, as we saw last week when Matthew Stafford eclipsed 300 yards passing (albeit on 55 attempts). Perhaps he’s better suited as a FLEX play, but given the fact that he has a comparably high ceiling as any other player in this game, he should remain on the captaincy radar.

WR Deebo Samuel: The status of Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder/questionable) will loom large for this 49ers passing attack but, whether or not he plays, it sounds as if he won’t be close to 100% which means Deebo Samuel’s workload could increase. Samuel already accounts for a team-leading 30.8% target% and leads all 49ers WRs with an 88% snap%. He continues to mix in out of the backfield as well and, most recently, he sliced and diced his way to 38 yards rushing and a rushing TD on five carries in last week’s game against the Rams. He sets up well against the Giants secondary that ranks 29th in pass DVOA.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Brock Purdy: The ceiling is limited on Purdy but you can typically count on a solid 15-20 fantasy points out of him on a near-weekly basis. He also averages about 25% more FPPG at home and 19% more FPPG against non-divisional opponents. Purdy may or may not have Brandon Aiyuk at his disposal, but Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and CMC receiving out of the backfield still makes for a very talented group of pass catchers.

RB Matt Breida: Without Saquon available in this game, Matt Breida should get the first crack at lead RB duties for New York and handle the bulk of the RB touches. It’s not a stellar match-up but, through two weeks, the 49ers have only ranked 22nd in rush DVOA and they’ve also allowed eight RB receptions per game.

TE George Kittle: Kittle saw a huge increase in his snaps, going from a 69% snap% in week one to a 96% snap% in week two. He hasn’t had a big game yet this season but he’s poised to have a strong performance on Thursday night, especially if Aiyuk is out/limited. Kittle has averaged +77% more FPPG against non-divisional opponents (last nine) and the Giants, who gave up the 10th most FPPG to TEs in 2022, have allowed 100% more FPPG to TEs when playing on the road (last nine). If folks are going to look past Kittle just because he hasn’t put up huge stats in either of the first two games of the season, well, we’ll happily load up on him in the FLEX and as a contrarian captain.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

49ers D/ST: This game could be a bloodbath even if the “week two, second half” Giants team shows up. Now they’re going into the 49ers stadium on a short week without their best offensive player. They’re also down two starting O-linemen with LT Andrew Thomas and LG Ben Bredeson both ruled out for this week. The 49ers’ defense has forced a turnover on 19% of opponent drives this season, they’ve applied pressure on the QB on 30.6% of dropbacks (5th highest), and they’ve surrendered the 5th lowest yards per offensive play. So, it’s an all-around excellent spot to utilize the 49ers D/ST.

WR Darius Slayton: It’s hard to trust any Giants receiver but Slayton is the de facto WR1 and ranks second on the team, behind TE Darren Waller, with a 17.2% target%. Slayton has also played the most snaps (74% snap%) of any Giants WR and is 1st on the team with a 34.2% share of the Giants’ total air yards. This isn’t a brutal match-up as some may think either. The 49ers allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs in 2022 and have already allowed 214 YPG and 21.5 receptions/gm to WRs in two games this season.

K Jake Moody: Rookie Jake Moody looks like he’ll be one of the best kickers in fantasy this year and he has already connected on all six of his FGAs, with a long of 57 yards, and has made 6/6 PATs as well. So, we’ve got a kicker with a big, reliable leg on an offense that should have no issues moving the ball and is a 10-point home favorite. Generally, that’s a recipe for success when it comes to rolling out a kicker in showdown lineups. The only issue would be ~10 mph winds blowing in San Francisco on Thursday night, but Moody should be accustomed to those sorts of conditions by now.

WR Ronnie Bell: *If Brandon Aiyuk sits, Ronnie Bell should see plenty of snaps. While he didn’t record a target last week, he was on the field for 47% of snaps while Aiyuk was banged up. Even if Aiyuk does play, there’s no guarantee he’ll see a full complement of snaps. We also have the potential blowout factor working in Bell’s favor. Bell drew plenty of buzz with a strong training camp performance and looks like a worthy $200 flier.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson has not played yet this season and is currently questionable with a knee injury, but he has been getting limited practices in this week which is a positive sign for his TNF availability. If he can suit up, he could provide the Giants with a much-needed versatile playmaker. Robinson’s 2022 rookie season was cut short due to injury, but he was an effective part of this offense in his six games played, catching 74.2% of his targets and averaging 9.9 yards per reception. If he’s activated ahead of Thursday’s kick-off, he’s another intriguing minimum salary punt play.

YouTube: 2022 Wan’Dale Robinson rookie highlights.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

WR Deebo Samuel

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers D/ST, WR Darius Slayton: No real explanation needed on why CMC makes for a strong captain choice, but he is very expensive so we’ll stack the 49ers D/ST for correlation purposes and utilize Darius Slayton as another affordable FLEX play and “bring-back” option.

*QB Daniel Jones, WR Darius Slayton, TE Darren Waller: Standard CPTN Jones double-stack with the Giants’ top two target leaders.

*WR Deebo Samuel, QB Brock Purdy, K Jake Moody: Deebo goes from a solid captain candidate to a great one if Aiyuk sits. Either way, he’s going to be heavily involved in a game where San Francisco should move up and down the field with ease. Complete the WR/QB stack with Purdy and load in an affordable Jake Moody to gain further exposure to the 49ers’ offense. Moody relies on skill position players to move the ball and set up field goal attempts --- Deebo + Purdy are the guys to do just that.

*QB Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle: Standard CPTN Purdy double-stack.

*RB Matt Breida, RB Christian McCaffrey, K Jake Moody: It’s not a rare sight to see low-scoring, ground-and-pound type games on these Thursday Night Football match-ups. Utilizing both lead RBs would be a fairly contrarian route to take, especially by placing Breida in the captain slot instead of CMC.

*TE George Kittle, QB Brock Purdy, WR Wan’Dale Robinson (if he’s active): For reasons explained in his write-up above, we’ll be expecting a big game out of Kittle and, outside of CMC, he’s the next likeliest player to bring in multiple touchdowns in this game. Stacking with Purdy and punting with the $200 Wan’dale Robinson (again, if he’s active) leaves you with enough salary left over to fit in three more stud plays.

5-1 49ers “Smash” Stacks: This could be a very lopsided match-up by the end of the night and I don’t believe anyone would be shocked if the final score is something like 30-10 in favor of the 49ers. The majority of lineups will be 4-2 49ers-heavy or 3-3 balanced so going with some sort of 5-1 49ers “smash” build will provide some decent leverage.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Deebo Samuel MORE than 54.5 Receiving Yards

Darius Slayton MORE than 34.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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