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Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) | 39.5 O/U

JAX: 19.0 Implied Points | NO: 20.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence - Questionable, RB Jamaal Williams - Questionable, WR Zay Jones - OUT, TE Juwan Johnson - OUT

Score Prediction: JAX - 20, NO - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Saints, 4-2 Jags

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Alvin Kamara: In his three games since returning from suspension, Kamara has averaged 17.3 rushes/gm, 8.3 targets/gm, and 7.7 receptions/gm -- 25.0 touches/gm total. In any competitive game script, as this TNF match-up should be, he’s simply going to handle a massive share of the RB touches in the Saints offense. The Jags defensive front has been stout, allowing just a 3.4 YPC average to RBs this season while ranking 6th in rush DVOA. That said, the Jags are surrendering receiving production to RBs -- 6.5 receptions/gm for 40.5 YPG. As we are well aware, Kamara is a very involved pass-catching RB. Kamara also averages +48.4% more FPPG in domed match-ups and he has 11 redzone opportunities in his three games (7 rushes, 4 targets). With RB Jamaal Williams likely on the wrong side of his “questionable” designation, Kamara should have little competition for short yardage/goal-line touches (outside of maybe gadget guy QB/TE/RB Taysom Hill). Given his touchdown equity and likelihood of receiving mid-20s touches, which includes plenty of receiving work, Kamara will be a perfectly fine captain play despite the tough match-up on the ground.

RB Travis Etienne Jr.: The general feeling is that QB Trevor Lawrence (knee/questionable) will suit up on the short week but the Jags may choose to emphasize the run game and/or quick passing game while going easy on Lawrence’s dropbacks in order to minimize further injury risk to their franchise QB. Regardless if that’s how it plays out, Etienne is in line for another hefty workload on Thursday night. His 113 carries lead the NFL as does his 16 broken tackles (7.1 attempts per broken tackle, ranks 3rd). Overall, he’s averaging 22.3 touches/gm this season and has made four trips to the endzone in the last two weeks alone. The rub here is that he’ll be facing a Saints defensive front that has been brutal, holding opposing RBs to a 3.6 YPC average, 69.0 rush YPG, and the 2nd fewest FPPG. However, their 13th-ranked rush DVOA suggests some regression is due and, outside of Derrick Henry in week one, the Saints have not faced a gauntlet of high-end RBs -- D. Pierce, R. Stevenson (scripted out in a 34-0 blowout), R. White, and M. Sanders. Also, if you want to throw a little hometown narrative in there, Etienne is a Louisiana native and will be facing New Orleans for the first time in his NFL career.

WR Chris Olave: It hasn’t taken long for second-year WR Chris Olave to take over as the WR1 for New Orleans. He has double-digit targets in 4-of-6 games this season and leads the team with a 25.5% target% and 39.0% air yard%. Olave plays a moderate amount out of the slot (42% slot%) but he spends most of his time on the perimeter which will provide an excellent match-up for the young star receiver. The Jags have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs and they’ll be without CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring/out), thrusting CB Montaric Brown into a starting role. Brown has been very poor in coverage this season and Olave should thrive when matched up across from him. Olave is the 4th most expensive player on this showdown slate but has perhaps the highest ceiling, making him a go-to captain option on Thursday night.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Derek Carr: Neither QB is necessarily an exciting DFS option but, in all likelihood, at least one of them will emerge as an optimal FLEX play. I’m not overly worried about the Lawrence injury but it is enough to push me toward favoring Carr as the preferred QB play. Along with no injury concerns, Carr draws the better match-up and is also $800 cheaper than Lawrence. The Jags have allowed the 2nd most passing YPG this season and, thanks to a stout run defense, they are forcing the 4th highest pass play percentage (66.1%). Being down their second-best cornerback (Tyson Campbell) also doesn’t hurt Carr’s chances of posting a solid fantasy performance. Carr has never really possessed massive DFS upside but a 15-20 DKFP score is a very attainable outcome in this game, which would likely be enough to land him in the optimal lineup.

WR Christian Kirk: When WR Zay Jones (knee/out) has either been out or injured mid-game, which has been each of the last five games, Christian Kirk has gone on to command a team-high 26.1% target% and has averaged 17.0 DKFP/gm. Kirk, who runs out of the slot on 72% of plays, will draw the most favorable WR/CB match-up among Jags WRs. He’ll routinely face off with Saints slot CB Alontae Taylor, who has been targeted on a team-high 27% of routes ran against him. Taylor is also allowing around twice as many fantasy points per route as boundary CBs Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. Kirk profiles as a high-floor FLEX play and is worthy of some captaincy shares as well.

WR Michael Thomas: It’s hard to argue against Michael Thomas’ consistency as he has seen between six and nine targets in every game this season while scoring at least 9.3 DKFP. A lack of touchdowns (lack, as in zero) has kept his fantasy ceiling in check each week but it’s worth noting that Thomas has garnered a strong 25.0% redzone target% this season, which happens to be a team-high. Thomas has run nearly 70% of his routes out on the perimeter and, as mentioned with Olave’s spotlight, that will lead to a strong match-up against the Jags (2nd most FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Taysom Hill: TE Juwan Johnson has been ruled out again and, for the first time in his career, Taysom Hill saw the majority of his snaps come at the tight end position last week -- he ended up catching 7-of-8 targets for 49 yards (while also adding in a two-yard carry). Hill’s 60% snap% in week six led other Saints TEs Foster Moreau (48%) and Jimmy Graham (17%). Hill seeing the same sort of target volume this week may be wishful thinking, but another 6+ targets wouldn’t be surprising should he operate as the Saints’ primary TE once again. And we can never count out Hill when it comes to mixing in with some rushing work out of the backfield either. The Jags have allowed the 5th most YPG to TEs this season.

TE Evan Engram: The Saints are extremely tough against the tight end, ranking 4th in TE DVOA, but Engram is a very involved receiver in this Jags passing attack and has averaged 7.3 targets/gm and is tied for 2nd on the team with Calvin Ridley with 44 targets and a 21.2% target%. Engram has caught 81.8% of his targets this season and it’s only a matter of time before he scores his first TD of 2023.

Saints D/ST / Jaguars D/ST: This game features a <40 point over/under and the short week often leads to a low-scoring affair on Thursday Night Football. The Saints D/ST would go from a “decent” to a “strong” DFS play if Trevor Lawrence were to sit. However, compared to the Saints D/ST, the Jags D/ST is significantly cheaper by $1,600 and, though they do not boast an elite pass rush, they have been opportunistic this season and lead the NFL with a 20.3% turnover% (percentage of drives ending in an offensive turnover).

K Blake Grupe / K Brandon McManus: Pretty strong chance we’ll see more FGs than touchdowns in this game. Grupe has multiple FGA in every game this season and has connected on 10/10 XPA. McManus has three FGA in four of the last five games and is also 100% on XPA (14/14). No weather concerns in this domed match-up.

WR Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed logged a season-high 76% snap% last week and hauled in his second TD of the season. He is utilized as the go-to deep threat in this Saints offense based on his team-leading 18.2-yard aDOT. That role makes him a tad boom-or-bust but, overall, he provides the most upside among the lower-priced options in this game.

RB Tank Bigsby / RB Kendre Miller: Both guys play behind bellcow RBs but would receive some added volume in the event of an injury and/or blowout. Pure dart throws otherwise.

WR Jamal Agnew: Agnew should play between 30-50% of snaps with Zay Jones sidelined again. Outside of a week three performance where he caught 4-of-5 targets for 49 yards, Agnew has just one catch for five yards in his remaining four games (sat out with injury in week four). So, he is a goose egg candidate, but worth a flier in some GPP builds given his minuscule $400 salary.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Alvin Kamara

⬇️ Join the TNF Touchdown Calls Contest! ⬇️

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Alvin Kamara, Saints D/ST, TE Evan Engram: Despite facing a stingy Jags defensive front, Kamara’s pass-catching prowess gives him a strong floor in full PPR scoring and he holds +110 odds as an anytime touchdown scorer. He is the most expensive player on this slate so we can save some salary by pairing him with the Saints D/ST for correlation purposes and running it back with an affordable Evan Engram on the other side.

*RB Travis Etienne Jr., K Brandon McManus, WR Chris Olave: We’re expecting QB Trevor Lawrence to suit up on Thursday night but the Jags could implement a more conservative offensive game plan that would feature an already heavily-featured Travis Etienne Jr. Etienne won’t be a cheap captain play either, so we can save some salary while also working in some correlation by putting Jags K Brandon McManus in the FLEX (ETN helps move the ball & set up McManus FGA). This leaves plenty of salary to roll with WR Chris Olave as a premium bring-back option.

*WR Chris Olave, QB Derek Carr, WR Christian Kirk: Olave has seen at least 10 targets in all but two games this season, which were both blowouts. This game is expected to stay close so the volume should be there for Olave in what is a terrific match-up (discussed in his player spotlight). Roll him out with QB Derek Carr in the FLEX to complete the WR/QB stack and pair them with a high-end bring-back play like WR Christian Kirk.

*QB Derek Carr, WR Chris Olave, WR Michael Thomas: Standard CPTN Carr double-stack. I’d lock in Olave in any CPTN Carr lineups, but Thomas could be interchangeable with Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill, or Foster Moreau. Or, if you’re comfortable with a very expensive Saints-heavy stack, RB Alvin Kamara works as a “stackable” receiver with Carr as well.

*WR Christian Kirk, QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Chris Olave: If Kirk ends up as the optimal captain play, then that means QB Trevor Lawrence likely wasn’t negatively affected by his knee injury, has a good game, and slides in as an optimal FLEX play to complete the WR/QB stack. Run it back with perhaps my favorite overall play in this game, WR Chris Olave.

*WR Michael Thomas, QB Derek Carr, RB Travis Etienne Jr.: A lack of any big fantasy performances, including zero touchdowns on the season, will steer folks away from utilizing Michael Thomas as a captain play. But the volume has been consistent all season and he’s seeing his fair share of redzone targets, so the big game may be just around the corner. Stack him with Carr and, given Thomas’ more affordable captain salary, we can easily spend up on a high-end bring-back play like Etienne.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Chris Olave MORE than 60.5 Receiving Yards

Travis Etienne Jr. MORE than 3.0 Receptions

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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