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New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-7.5) | 34 O/U

NYJ: 13.3 Implied Points | CLE: 20.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Amari Cooper - Questionable (“hopeful” to suit up), QB Zach Wilson - OUT, K Dustin Hopkins - OUT, K Greg Zuerlein - Questionable, WR Adam Lazard - Questionable, RB Israel Abanikanda - Questionable, TE Jeremy Ruckert - OUT, WR Marquise Goodwin - Questionable, TE CJ Uzomah - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Jets - 13, Browns - 21

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Browns, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Jets, 5-1 Browns

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Amari Cooper: Both sides of this match-up have a lengthy injury list heading into tonight but perhaps the most crucial one, for fantasy purposes, is the pending status of Amari Cooper (heel/questionable). Cooper has not practiced all week but he is “hopeful” he’ll be able to give it a go tonight. So, for now, we’re going to assume he’s active for this game. Cooper is the most expensive player on the slate and he draws what has been the worst match-up for WRs this season (NYJ: fewest FPPG allowed to WRs). But it’s impossible to look past Cooper’s resurgence with Joe Flacco in at QB. Cooper put up a franchise record 265 receiving yards in week 16 and, since week 14, he leads all NFL receivers in targets (37), yards (451), air yards (587), and FPPG (28.4) while boasting a fairly deep 15.9-yard aDOT. Flacco isn’t going to ignore passing to Cooper just because he’ll be covered by the likes of Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. Assuming he plays, Cooper may be better suited as a FLEX play but, one thing is for certain -- he clearly has slate-breaking captain potential.

RB Breece Hall: The Jets have nothing but pride to play for at this point in the season but that didn’t stop Breece Hall from playing on a season-high 77% of snaps last week. With the hefty snap share and a new QB under center, Hall ran the ball 20 times and saw a whopping 16 targets from interim QB Trevor Siemian. The absurd opportunity count nearly led to a 100/100 game for Hall, as he ended the game against Washington with 95 yards rushing, 96 yards receiving on 12 catches, and two touchdowns. To state the obvious, we cannot expect a performance anywhere close to that as the Jets face a much tougher Browns defense this week. But Hall was given either a carry or a target on 52.2% of his snaps last week and will be a clear focal point tonight. We can consider Hall to be a volume-based captain candidate this evening.

TE David Njoku: Njoku’s stock would see a significant bump if WR Amari Cooper is eventually ruled out. As it stands now, he’s still a highly viable option, both as a captain choice and a FLEX play. Spanning the last three games, Njoku has commanded a strong 23.9% target% while reeling in 22 receptions (the same # of receptions as Cooper in that span) and four touchdowns. The Jets are brutal against wide receivers but tight ends have found their fair share of success in this match-up. Only the Broncos have surrendered more touchdowns to the tight end position than the Jets this season. And, even while dealing with a revolving door of different QBs starting for the Browns, Njoku has scored fewer than 11.8 DKFP just once in his last nine games.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Joe Flacco: This may finally be the game where Flacco looks much more like the 38-year-old veteran QB who had been watching most games from his couch this season. But, over his four starts with the Browns, Flacco is averaging a remarkable 326.8 YPG, 2.5 TDs/gm, and 23.8 FPPG on 43.8 pass attempts/gm. He has benefited from some fairly beatable match-ups, which this one will not be (NYJ: fewest FPPG allowed to QBs). However, the Browns have shown that they’re not afraid to let Flacco sling it and, if there is one positive about the match-up, it’s that the Jets have allowed +34% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road. Still, I’m not sure he’ll do enough in this game to be the most favorable captain target, especially if he doesn’t have Amari Cooper at his disposal, but he does bring a nice floor as a FLEX play.

WR Garrett Wilson: 31 of Trevor Siemian’s 49 pass attempts last week were targeted at two players -- Breece Hall (16 targets) and Garrett Wilson (15 targets). Outside of the occasional breather, Wilson is out there for just about every snap. He has played 93% of snaps on the season and notched a 96% snap% last week. Over the entire season, the Browns have allowed the 2nd fewest FPPG to WRs. However, spanning their last four games, they’re mid-pack, allowing the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, including 1.3 TDs/gm to the position. I doubt we can expect 15 targets for Wilson again but the Jets are sizable +7.5 point underdogs in this one, so they’ll likely be playing from behind for much/all of this game. So 10+ targets does feel like a solid bet for Wilson… though, there are no promises that those targets will be consistently accurate. But, let’s be honest, that’s nothing new for Wilson and he has put up a quality season despite having perhaps the worst QB play of any star receiver in the league this year.

RB Jerome Ford OR RB Kareem Hunt: The Jets have been a certified run-funnel defense. They are notoriously stingy against the pass but have allowed the 7th most FPPG to RBs on the year. Over their last four games, the Jets are allowing 1.5 TDs/gm to RBs as well. With WR Amari Cooper likely not at 100% even if he does play, to go along with the difficult match-up against an elite Jets’ secondary, it wouldn’t be a major surprise if the Browns end up leaning on their RB duo of Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt. Ford has logged a 52% snap% L4Weeks while Hunt has played 37% of snaps in that same stretch. Both guys have strong touchdown equity in this offense and either could see a handful of targets from Joe Flacco as well. Ford is the best bet in this game to score a touchdown with +130 odds but Hunt is tied for second with +162 anytime touchdown odds. Both Browns RBs set up as quality FLEX plays, though Hunt will come in at $3,200 cheaper than Ford. I probably wouldn’t play both in the same lineup but at least one of these guys should score and put up a decent yardage and reception total.

If WR Amari Cooper is OUT

WR Elijah Moore: Moore becomes a very appealing FLEX play if Cooper can’t suit up, or is limited tonight. He’ll still have to deal with the difficult match-up, but bumping up to the WR1 when Joe Flacco is throwing it 40+ times per game would set him up as a nice potential bargain at $6,600.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

Browns D/ST: The Browns’ D/ST has averaged 10.8 FPPG at home this season and D/STs facing the Jets have averaged 12.3 FPPG this year. By D/ST standards, they are expensive, but there are quite a few ways the Browns’ D/ST lands in the optimal lineup tonight.

TE Tyler Conklin: The Jets will be without backup TEs Jeremy Ruckert and CJ Uzomah, which should lead to an 80-90% snap% for Conklin. Conklin has averaged 7.3 targets/gm L4Games and has some nice upside against a Browns D that has really struggled to defend the TE position in recent weeks. Over their last four games, Cleveland is allowing the 2nd most FPPG to TEs.

K Riley Patterson / K Greg Zuerlein (currently questionable): Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) will be out tonight and there’s a chance that Greg Zuerlein (quad) will miss as well. If Zuerlein is out, the Jets’ backup kicker, Austin Seibert, is not in the DK player pool. But Dustin Hopkins has been the #2 fantasy kicker this season. If Patterson takes over that same sort of production, he’ll make for a fine FLEX play. Given the two tough defenses on the field tonight, there should be several offensive drives that stall out in FG range.

WR Xavier Gipson: Gipson has taken over as the primary Jets slot receiver and has played at least 62% of snaps in six of the last seven games. The Browns have allowed the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks. Gipson doesn’t command consistent targets, but if he gets a handful of looks tonight, he could break off a big play or two and easily pay off his low-end salary.

WR Cedric Tillman: Tillman runs most of his routes out of the slot but, if Amari Cooper is ruled out, he could spend more time on the perimeter and take on WR2 duties. Less interest in Tillman if Cooper plays.

WR Jason Brownlee: If Allen Lazard (illness) is out, Brownlee will end up playing most of the snaps tonight. He logged an 82% snap% last week (Lazard: 27% snap% week 16) and was on the receiving end of QB Trevor Siemian’s lone touchdown pass. There’s a chance Brownlee could play ahead of Lazard even if Lazard is active as the Jets aim to get a better look at their younger players over the final stretch of the season.

TE Kenny Yeboah: Due to the injuries to Jeremy Ruckert and CJ Uzomah, Yeboah will fill in as the Jets’ TE2 tonight and could play around 30-40% of snaps. He could easily put up a goose egg but, as noted in Tyler Conklin’s spotlight, the Browns have been awful against TEs lately and we don’t need much out of Yeboah given his stone minimum $200 price tag.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Jerome Ford

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Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Amari Cooper, QB Joe Flacco, WR Xavier Gipson: Assuming Cooper suits up, he’s going to have a difficult time replicating his recent success against this extremely talented Jets’ secondary. But the upside is hard to pass on and Flacco will deliver him targets despite the match-up. We’ll, of course, pair Cooper with Flacco in the FLEX and, since it is an expensive stack, we’ll roll with a cheap bring-back in WR Xavier Gipson. Average salary per remaining player: $6,466.

*RB Breece Hall, TE Tyler Conklin, RB Jerome Ford: The insane usage from Breece Hall in week 16 will be tough to follow but interim QB Trevor Siemian showed an overwhelming willingness to check the ball down to his talented RB. Any time an RB is likely to handle 20-30 touches, he’s going to command some captain consideration regardless of match-up (CLE: 1st in rush DVOA). We’ll pair Hall with TE Tyler Conklin, who should play close to 90% of snaps tonight versus a Browns D whose one major weakness has been covering the tight end lately. And we can run it back with another RB in Jerome Ford in hopes of a “ground and pound” game script for both offenses. Average salary per remaining player: $6,700.

*TE David Njoku, QB Joe Flacco, WR Garrett Wilson: Njoku has been one of the more reliable TEs in fantasy for over two months now and Flacco coming in at QB has only lifted his ceiling. The Jets defense can be beaten with opposing TEs and I love Njoku’s touchdown prop today. Stack him with Flacco and, since Njoku is not overly expensive as a captain play, we can spend up on WR Garrett Wilson as a premiere bring-back option. Average salary per remaining player: $5,966.

*QB Joe Flacco, WR Amari Cooper, TE David Njoku: Standard CPTN Flacco double-stack featuring his two most-targeted pass catchers. I would lock in at least one of Cooper (assuming he plays) or Njoku in any CPTN Flacco stack. Other Browns pass catchers to mix into CPTN Flacco lineups (in order of preference): WR Elijah Moore, WR Cedric Tillman, RB Jerome Ford, RB Kareem Hunt, WR David Bell (only if Cooper is out), and TE Harrison Bryant. Average salary per remaining player: $5,033.

*WR Garrett Wilson, QB Trevor Siemian, TE David Njoku: Wilson has been dealt a tough hand with his QB play this season but he’s still putting up quality numbers even with a lack of touchdowns on the season. Fifteen targets from Siemian last week is a good sign that he’s willing to feed Wilson targets… and I would not expect for Breece Hall to see anywhere close to the 16 targets he saw in week 16. While I’m not crazy about using Siemian tonight, if Wilson ends up as the optimal captain, Siemian will likely be an optimal FLEX play so we’ll keep the correlation going with this WR/QB stack and run it back with a high-floor option like Njoku. Average salary per remaining player: $6,233.

*RB Jerome Ford -or- RB Kareem Hunt, Browns D/ST, K Riley Patterson: Bit of an ugly stack but this very well could be an ugly game, as Thursday Night Football games tend to be. Both teams are dealing with an extensive amount of injuries so I could envision the Browns, in particular, leaning run-heavy in a very winnable game while looking to just get out of this game as healthy as possible with playoffs around the corner. Both Ford and Hunt have low-end captain appeal with most of their value hinging on touchdown potential. Fortunately, the Jets have been surrendering plenty of TDs to RBs in recent weeks. We’ll pair a Clevland RB with the Browns’ D/ST as well as their fill-in kicker, Riley Patterson. Both D/STs and kickers tend to correlate well with their RBs. This Ford/Hunt build also leaves plenty of salary for the remaining FLEX plays. Average salary per remaining player: $9,000 (CPTN Ford) / $10,600 (CPTN Hunt).

*Browns D/ST + Four other Browns players: If a 5-1 Browns stack is the optimal build tonight, there’s a fairly good chance the Browns’ D/ST goes nuts. We’ve seen D/STs finish as the optimal captain on several occasions in these primetime slates throughout the season, so it’s not the craziest idea out there. Still, it’s a strategy best reserved for GPPs and, ideally, if you’re rolling out more than just a few lineups.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyler Conklin MORE than 28.5 Receiving Yards

David Njoku MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Increased Payout Prop)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!