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Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers | 46 O/U

DET: 23.8 Implied Points | GB: 22.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Aaron Jones - Questionable, WR Christian Watson - Questionable (expected to make his season debut), RB David Montgomery - Questionable. All are EXPECTED to play.

Score Prediction: DET - 24, GB - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Lions, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Packers

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: ARSB went into week three’s game with a toe injury, but he proved to be no worse for the wear, emerging with a 12-target, nine-catch, 102-yard game while playing 94% of snaps. St. Brown has now commanded a team-leading 28.9% target% and has caught 77.8% of those targets. Perhaps more telling of St. Brown’s importance to the Lions’ passing game is his dominant 57.1% redzone target%. The Packers have allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to WRs through three games but they’ve been most vulnerable in the slot and on the left perimeter, which is where St. Brown has run 84% of his routes. Despite his slate-high DFS price tag, he’ll make for a prime captain candidate.

QB Jordan Love: Through three games, Love has impressed with DKFP totals of 23.0, 20.34, and 25.26. He may be completing just 53.1% of his passes thus far, but his 12.8 yards per completion currently ranks 2nd among all NFL QBs, behind only Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa, and he leads all QBs with an average of 10.6 air yards per attempt. Furthermore, Love has mixed in some production on the ground with 74 yards on 14 rush attempts (5.3 YPC) and a touchdown. Love has been getting by just fine without top receiving weapon WR Christian Watson (hamstring/questionable), however, Watson is on track to make his season debut Thursday night and gives Love another dangerous receiving option to pass to. This also does not set up as a difficult match-up at home against a Lions defense that ranks 19th in pass DVOA. Checking in with the 4th most expensive salary ($9,800 -- CPT: $14,700), Love sets up as a strong high-floor captain option.

TE Sam LaPorta: It has not taken long for rookie tight end Sam LaPorta to emerge as a top receiving weapon in this Lions offense and he’s coming off of a huge 11-8-84-1 receiving line against the Falcons in week three. LaPorta now ranks 2nd on the team with a 22.9% target% -- which is an elite target rate for the tight end position. He has run just 11 fewer pass routes than star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, he has played on 79% of snaps, and he has hauled in 81.8% of his targets. LaPorta’s receiving volume may take a hit once WR Jameson Williams returns from his suspension but, for now, he looks to be a favorite target of QB Jared Goff and should be on the captain radar for this NFC North divisional clash.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Jared Goff: Goff has shown a high ceiling in this Lions’ offense, but the floor can also be quite low. He failed to score 13 FP in either match-up with the Packers in 2022 and he also averages -32.7% less FPPG in outdoor games. That said, he’s off to a solid start in 2023, completing 69.9% of his passes for 273.0 YPG, 1.7 TDs/gm, and Goff’s 8.0 yards per attempt ranks 3rd among NFL QBs. The Lions step in as slight -1.5 point road favorites and Goff has posted 25.3 FPPG in the last six games where Detroit was favored.

WR Romeo Doubs: Yes, WR Christian Watson is expected to make his season debut on Thursday, but it’s unclear if he’ll face any snap restrictions right out of the gates. I have no issues using Watson in TNF lineups, especially as part of any CPTN Love double stacks, but Doubs currently has my highest confidence among Packers receivers. Doubs has been on the receiving end on three of Love’s seven passing TDs and his 86% snap% in week three, where he commanded 12 targets, represented season-highs in both categories for Packers’ WRs.

RB David Montgomery: After sitting out in week three with a thigh injury, Montgomery has been able to log limited practices throughout the week and is on track to play on Thursday night. Assuming he’s no longer hampered by the injury on a short week, Montgomery sets up as a strong FLEX play and contrarian captain option. Monty played on 79% of snaps in week one where he handled 21 carries, including goal-line work. He then had 17 touches on 30 snaps in week two before exiting with the injury. The Lions do seem intent on limiting rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs’ workload early on in this season. So, should Montgomery return to the same role he had over the first two weeks, he looks like the Lions’ RB to roster, especially given the drastic difference in Montgomery's ($6,800) and Gibbs’ ($9,600) DFS salaries. The Packers have surrendered the 5th most rushing YPG and 9th most FPPG to RBs this season.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Luke Musgrave: We have a pair of impressive rookie TEs facing off in this game with the aforementioned Sam LaPorta on the Lions' side and Luke Musgrave for the Packers. Musgrave has logged a strong 83% snap% and is coming off of a season-high eight targets in week three. More importantly, tight ends have been highly productive against Detroit this season. The Lions have allowed the most receptions (25), yards (263), and FPPG (19.0) to the tight end position through three games.

WR Josh Reynolds: We can expect that many folks will avoid Reynolds solely based on his week three goose egg. Reynolds’ 77% snap% last week was still second among Lions’ WRs and he posted strong performances over the first couple of games, catching 9/13 targets for 146 yards and two TDs. He’s a solid bounce-back candidate and worthy FLEX play against a Packers’ secondary that may be without top CB Jaire Alexander (questionable/back).

WR Jayden Reed: I wouldn’t expect the (likely) return of WR Christian Watson to affect Reed’s snaps too much considering he has run 74% of his snaps out of the slot, where Watson doesn’t typically align. Reed has commanded a respectable 21.1% target% through three weeks, highlighted by a two-touchdown performance in week two. He’ll make for an appealing FLEX option against a Lions team that has given up the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs.

Lions D/ST: Neither team has a top-tier defense in this game but if I’m siding with one, it’s likely going to be the Lions. The Lions D is coming off of a seven-sack performance in week three and ranks 10th in pressure rate (27.2%). The Lions have also been stout on the ground, ranking 5th in rush DVOA, and they average +38.0% more FPPG in outdoor games.

WR Samori Toure: There aren’t many if any, truly appealing punt plays in this game, but Toure stands out as a worthy dart throw at $600 on DK. He’s only seen eight targets this season but when Love is looking his way, it’s typically deep down the field given Toure’s team-high 20.6-yard aDOT. The return of Christian Watson likely takes snaps away from Toure, who has played on 41% of snaps this season. But he could likely retain around a 30% snap% given his big play threat skillset. A couple of long receptions or one long TD catch for Toure and it’s instant value.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB David Montgomery

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, QB Jared Goff, RB David Montgomery: Lions team stack that could give you exposure to every Detroit touchdown scored. St. Brown and Goff represent a pricey WR/QB stack, but Montgomery’s affordable $6,800 salary still leaves a decent enough chunk of change left over for the remaining three FLEX positions.

*QB Jordan Love, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Luke Musgrave: Standard CPTN Love double-stack. Doubs and/or Musgrave could be replaced by Christian Watson and/or Jayden Reed.

*TE Sam LaPorta, QB Jared Goff, RB Aaron Jones: Despite the narrative of rookie tight ends having a tough time adjusting to the NFL level right away, LaPorta’s high route participation and 11-target game last week makes him an interesting captain option. Complete the stack with QB Goff in the FLEX and run it back with RB Aaron Jones on the other side, who looks to be on track to return from his two-week absence due to a hamstring injury. Jones’ services have been sorely missed while backup RB AJ Dillon has struggled mightily.

QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Josh Reynolds: Standard CPTN Goff double-stack. If Goff ends up being the optimal captain, two or three of his pass catchers will end up as optimal FLEX plays. You can get creative with the second or third Lions’ pass catchers, but I can’t imagine not stacking ARSB when rolling with Goff in the captain slot.

*WR Romeo Doubs, QB Jordan Love, RB Jahmyr Gibbs: Doubs has been a go-to option for Love in the redzone (27.8% RZ target%) and sets up as a prime contrarian captain candidate with multi-touchdown upside. We’ll of course stack him with QB Love in the FLEX and run it back with Gibbs on the other side. As mentioned above, David Montgomery would be my preferred Lions RB, but Gibbs’ play-making ability and elusiveness make him a strong upside play, especially if Monty doesn’t handle the same sort of workload he had in the first two weeks.

*RB David Montgomery, Lions D/ST, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Assuming Montgomery is not limited, he’s the clear favorite for early down RB work and goal-line carries which means solid touchdown/multi-touchdown potential. Pair him with the Lions D/ST for correlation purposes and splurge on the ARSB spend-up, who will see high volume no matter how the game script goes.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

David Montgomery + Josh Reynolds MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Combo)

Luke Musgrave MORE than 36.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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