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Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3.5) | 38 O/U

CAR: 17.3 Implied Points | CHI: 20.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: QB Justin Fields - Doubtful, WR DJ Chark Jr. - Doubtful, RB Khalil Herbert - Questionable (looking likely to play — Edit: Herbert is now NOT expected to play), TE Stephen Sullivan - OUT, WR Laviska Shenault Jr. - OUT, FB Khari Blasingame - OUT, WR Equanimeous St. Brown - OUT/IR, TE Ian Thomas - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Panthers - 20, Bears - 21

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bears, 4-2 Panthers

Weather Note: Wind speeds will be around 15 mph with gusts of 25+ mph. Downfield passing and kicking games receive a bit of a downgrade.

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Adam Thielen: Our best hope for this TNF match-up is for it to turn into a “good, bad game.” There are only a finite amount of days in the year when we get NFL football, so we addicts will tune in nonetheless. Leading the way among captain candidates will be Adam Thielen. He’s coming off of a down game, but week nine was the first game dating back to week two in which Thielen caught fewer than seven passes and scored fewer than 15.2 DKFP. Despite playing on a bad Panthers offense, Thielen is still the WR8 in PPR fantasy scoring. He has brought in 81.6% of his targets and has commanded a hefty 40% redzone target%. Thielen primarily runs out of the slot (75% slot%). The perimeter is where the Bears' secondary has really struggled (6th most FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs). However, Thielen should still be in line for a bounce-back performance and the Bears haven’t exactly been locking down the slot (14th most FPPG allowed to slot WRs L8Weeks).

WR DJ Moore: The “revenge narrative” is often overblown, in any sport, but I don’t mind playing that angle with DJ Moore facing his former team for the first time. Moore’s upside has been capped with Tyson Bagent playing the majority of the last four games, and he’s averaging just 9.9 FPPG in that span. That said, he still leads the team with a 25% target% and 41.1% air yard% with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Moore is also rarely coming off of the field and has played 92% of the offensive snaps this season. The Panthers D is best attacked on the ground (32nd in rush DVOA), but they’re far from a lockdown pass defense, ranking 14th in pass DVOA and allowing the 17th most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Moore: 81% perimeter%). The Panthers’ defense is also dealing with several injuries to some key players. If Bagent has an efficient game, Moore should certainly end the night in the optimal lineup and I like his chances at a touchdown in this one as well.

QB Bryce Young: I cannot pretend that Bryce Young is having a good, or even a mediocre, rookie season. But the 2023 number-one overall pick has not been a total disaster, from a fantasy standpoint at least, as he’s averaging 14.9 FPPG over the last four games. In what will likely be a low-scoring game, 15-20 FP is probably going to guarantee a spot on the optimal lineup -- a result on the higher end of that range could mean that player ends up as the optimal captain as well. This will be a positive match-up for Young and the Panthers passing game. The Bears' defense has been a bit of a pass funnel this season, ranking 7th in rush DVOA but 30th in pass DVOA. Chicago is allowing 2.1 pass TDs/gm, a 70.1% completion%, and the 4th most FPPG to QBs this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

QB Tyson Bagent: The charm has faded a bit on Bagent’s underdog story as an undrafted rookie who played at the Division II collegiate level and is now a starting NFL QB. Nonetheless, he’s going to carry some FLEX and contrarian captain appeal in this game. Bagent is averaging 15.3 FPPG in his three starts and, most recently, he showed off some wheels by picking up 70 yards rushing while also throwing for multiple TDs for the first time this season. As mentioned with Bryce Young, it won’t take much more than a 15-20 FP score to crack the optimal DFS lineup in this game. Bagent has that in him and it’s worth noting that the Panthers have allowed +48% more FPPG to QBs when they’ve played on the road (last nine games).

TE Cole Kmet: After going without a target in QB Tyson Bagent’s first NFL start, the rookie QB has been heavily reliant on his tight end in the two games since. Between weeks eight and nine, Kmet has garnered a team-leading 29.0% target% and has caught 16-of-18 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Kmet is rarely leaving the field and, despite the fairly touch match-up (CAR: 12th in TE DVOA, 7th fewest FPPG allowed to TEs), it’s not far-fetched to assume that the Bagent to Kmet connection will continue in this game.

RB Khalil Herbert: Herbert carries a questionable designation into Thursday but, after logging full practices on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, it would be a significant surprise if he doesn’t make his return from the IR this week. Perhaps he’ll face some workload limitations but I’d expect Herbert to play roughly half the snaps and see some decent volume. The Panthers have been a dream match-up for any RB this season. They rank dead last in rush DVOA and have allowed the 2nd most FPPG and 1.5 TDs/gm to RBs this season. DraftKings has Herbert priced down at $4,200. He could end up being the best value in this game and is a definite FLEX/contrarian captain option in a game that does not feature many fantasy studs.

Update: Herbert is now not expected to suit up tonight. D’Onta Foreman becomes a strong FLEX play with captain appeal.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

RB Miles Sanders: For the time being, Chuba Hubbard is going to continue to lead the Panthers backfield but, despite playing just 25% of the snaps last week, Sanders put up some decent numbers. He turned in his most efficient rushing performance of the season, averaging 6.5 YPC on six carries and he also caught 3-of-5 targets for 22 yards. The Bears are holding RBs to just 3.2 YPC this season and rank 7th in rush DVOA. However, they have allowed the most receiving yards (578) and third-most receptions (55) to RBs. Sanders was viewed as the RB1 when the Panthers signed him in the off-season but, overall, Hubbard has been a bit more impressive (which isn’t saying much). If Sanders can close the gap to a near 50/50 split with Hubbard, then he’ll be the preferred Panthers RB play in this game based on the salary discrepancy (Sanders: $5,200 vs. Hubbard: $8,000).

Bears D/ST / Panthers D/ST: On a windy night in Chicago with two less-than-stellar offenses going at it, both D/STs are going to fall into FLEX consideration. Over the last four games, D/STs are averaging 11.3 FPPG versus Chicago and 11.8 FPPG versus Carolina -- though, two pick-sixes thrown by Bryce Young last week do skew that result for the Panthers quite a bit. Either way, there’s a strong chance that both offenses will struggle to eclipse 20 points and we may see some very sloppy play from both sides. The Bears D/ST is the slightly more favored play.

WR Jonathan Mingo: Mingo has played 99% of snaps in each of the previous two games and he could easily fall in at second in the target pecking order for the Panthers with WR DJ Chark Jr. (elbow) looking doubtful to play this week. Mingo aligns on the perimeter about 70% of the time and he should see plenty of CB Tyrique Stevenson, who has been terrible in coverage this season. Opposing QBs are targeting WRs in Stevenson’s coverage 27% of the time.

TE Tommy Tremble: The Panthers may only have two healthy tight ends available for this game -- Tommy Tremble and Hayden Hurst. Tremble has played at least 45% of snaps in three consecutive games. Neither TE has been heavily targeted lately, with Tremble seeing seven targets across the last three games to Hurst’s nine targets. It is, however, a great match-up against a Bears D that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to TEs this season. Both guys could be features as redzone targets but I’ll side with Tremble over Hurst since the former is exactly half the price of the latter.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr.: Marshall should operate as the Panthers’ WR3 with DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault both expected to miss this game. He’s only $400 and I would expect him to easily pay off that salary since he should play around 60-70% of the snaps. The Bears are allowing 53.4 YPG to opposing WR3s this season.

WR Tyler Scott: If we’re getting this cheap, I’d probably rather pay the extra $200 for Marshall, but Scott will check in as the Bears’ WR3 and has played at least 56% of the snaps in each of the last four games. He hasn’t scored more than 5.3 DKFP in a game this season but he is at least on the field for the majority of snaps and could always luck box his way into a big play/touchdown.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

TE Cole Kmet

Remember to participate in the TNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! The tweet will be posted later today. Retweet for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Adam Thielen, QB Bryce Young, RB Khalil Herbert: This three-man stack carries some nice correlation (Bears lead, hand Herbert more touches, Panthers forced to pass more) and about as high of a floor as you can get in this game. The Thielen/Young WR/QB stack is about as “safe” as it gets on this showdown slate and, since it will be a pricey stack, running it back with a $4,200 Khalil Herbert just makes too much sense. $6,100/player for the remaining three FLEX plays, which is very manageable.

Update: Ignore the Khalil Herbert mentions. This was written before it was announced that he is NOT expected to play.

*WR DJ Moore, QB Tyson Bagent, RB Miles Sanders: Similar stack as above, just flipped each position to their counterpart. Overall, I have less faith in this three-man stack than the Thielen/Young/Herbert trio, but it does provide some nice leverage since many lineups will start with that Thielen/Young combo while, likely, using Herbert as a cheap bring-back play.

*QB Bryce Young, WR Adam Thielen, WR Jonathan Mingo: Standard CPTN Young double-stack. It’s not sexy, but neither is this match-up. Thielen should be attached to any CPTN Young lineup, but Mingo is interchangeable with guys like Marshall, Hurst, Tremble, or even one of the RBs. Young did target his RBs 12 times last week and, as discussed earlier, the Bears have been vulnerable to pass-catching backs.

*QB Tyson Bagent, WR DJ Moore, TE Cole Kmet: Standard CPTN Bagent double-stack. I’m not big on Darnell Mooney in this game (Panthers: fewest FPPG allowed to slot WRs), but he is still a viable pass catcher to use in CPTN Bagent stacks. Unless you’re viewing any of the Bears’ RBs as stackable pass catchers, WR Tyler Scott is the only other viable Chicago receiver with a pulse.

*TE Cole Kmet, QB Tyson Bagent, WR Adam Thielen: As mentioned, Kmet has been Bagent’s favorite/most targeted receiver across the last two games and he was on the receiving end for both of Bagent’s TD passes last week. The Panthers have been fairly tough on TEs but, statistically, the Saints have been perhaps even better against the position, and that didn’t hold Kmet back from the big game in week nine. We’ll, of course, complete the TE/QB stack with Bagent in the FLEX and, given Kmet’s affordable captain salary, we can roll with the premium bring-back play with Thielen.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Adam Thielen MORE than 6.5 Receptions

TJ Edwards MORE than 8.5 Tackles + Assists

🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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