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New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) | 30 O/U

NE: 12.0 Implied Points | PIT: 18.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Rhamondre Stevenson - OUT, RB Najee Harris - Questionable, QB Kenny Pickett - OUT, WR Davante Parker - Questionable, WR Demario Douglas - OUT, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster - Questionable, WR Kayshon Boutte- OUT, WR Kendrick Bourne - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Patriots - 10, Steelers - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Steelers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Patriots

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Ezekiel Elliott: God, help us. Tuning into this game will truly separate the NFL degenerates from the casuals. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe I read that this 30 over/under is the lowest NFL game total since 1993… so buckle up. If there’s any showdown game where you should leave plenty of dead salary on the table, it’s probably this one. We’ll begin with Zeke Elliott. With Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) out for this week, and maybe beyond, Zeke will take over the lead-back duties. This is very much a volume-based play as Elliott is only averaging 3.8 YPC this season and the Pats have absolutely no passing game to speak of that could help deter the Steelers’ defense from stacking the box on nearly every play. But 20+ touches seem likely here for Zeke, including a handful of targets. If there’s any silver lining here, the Steelers have been softer versus the run (15th in rush DVOA) than the pass (6th in pass DVOA) and Pittsburgh has also allowed +79% more FPPG to RBs at home (last nine games).

QB Mitch Trubisky: The Steelers will turn to Mitch Trubisky at QB with Kenny Pickett (ankle) ruled out for this week. Trubisky has bounced around as a backup these last few seasons for a reason but, for fantasy purposes, we know that he has a high ceiling and, on top of his passing stats, he can add some value with his rushing potential. The Patriots’ defense may only allow the 6th fewest FPPG to QBs but they also rank 23rd in pass DVOA (2nd in rush DVOA) and have brought in the second-fewest interceptions this season. Is Trubisky a high-confidence play? Well, no. But who in this game is? Trubisky is commanding the “better” offense in this game and also has the better, healthier receivers at his disposal. There are plenty of ways he can end up in the optimal lineup once the dust settles on this abysmal primetime match-up. I’m really trying my best to reverse-jinx this into being a decent game because I already know I’m gonna force myself to watch all four quarters.

RB Jaylen Warren: The backfield split between Najee Harris (knee/questionable) and Jaylen Warren is about as 50/50 as it gets in the NFL. These two have logged all but seven of the RB snaps for the Steelers this season with Harris gaining the slight 54% snap% edge over Warren (45% snap%). Warren’s potential upside would essentially double if Harris were to be ruled out, and there would be zero competition for redzone/goal-line work, but as of Wednesday night, it does seem as if Harris is more likely to play than not. Nonetheless, Warren should see plenty of work, especially if the Steelers get up early and just look to grind things out on the ground & short passing game while keeping QB Mitch Trubisky from making any major mistakes. Warren has also been the more explosive/big-play RB (5.9 YPC to Harris’ 4.2 YPC) in general and he has seen nearly double the number of targets/receptions than Harris this season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Diontae Johnson: The top two Steelers WRs (Johnson & George Pickens) are the two most expensive (healthy) players on this slate, but that’s more of a byproduct of this terrible match-up than anything. I’m not sure how much faith I’d have in either guy as a captain, but it would seem likely that at least one will end up as an optimal play, likely as a FLEX. Both guys are quite similar on a per-game basis. Johnson is averaging 7.5 targets/gm with a 12.2-yard aDOT, 56.7% catch%, and 22.6% redzone target%. Pickens is averaging 6.5 targets/gm with a 13.1-yard aDOT, 56.4% catch%, and 22.6% redzone target%. Both also run over 80% of their routes on the perimeter, which bodes well as the Patriots have allowed the most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last eight weeks. So there is very little that separates these two but, if I’m choosing just one, I’ll likely side with Diontae Johnson. He was the recipient of an, admittedly, garbage-time touchdown from Trubisky last week and, in general, he should see more high-percentage intermediate targets. Ultimately, both are worth exposure, perhaps even in the same lineup if you’re rolling with Trubisky at captain

Steelers D/ST: When you get a game that features the lowest NFL total in three decades, it’s a good indicator that at least one defense will show up as an optimal play. The Patriots’ offense (12.0 implied points) has been absolutely anemic while the Steelers boast an all-around solid defense, and they’re at home. We have to give this Steelers D plenty of FLEX consideration and, if you’re feeling frisky, you could roll them out at captain as well.

WR DeVante Parker: Note: Parker is currently questionable for this game with a knee injury. As long as he suits up, by the process of elimination, Parker will be the WR1 for New England. WRs Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte are both out and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable. JuJu played last week (3 tgt, 1 rec) but the other two did not. Parker led all Pats receivers in week 13 with nine targets, four receptions, and 64 yards. Those nine looks translated to a 37.5% target% along with a 51.8% air yard%. Parker will have to face some coverage from Steelers’ stud cornerback Joey Porter Jr. but, for the most part (unless Porter shadows Parker), he should avoid him. Parker runs 53% of his routes on the left perimeter and Porter has only patrolled that side of the field on 26% of coverage snaps. Instead, Parker may face primary coverage from Levi Wallace, who has been pretty awful this season (#106 ranked CB per PFF.com).

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Hunter Henry: The Pats’ WR corps is extremely depleted so some additional targets could trickle down to Henry. The New England passing game is going to be very tough to trust with Bailey Zappe at the helm, but it doesn’t hurt Henry’s case that the Steelers’ defense has been torched by TEs in recent weeks. Over the last four games, opposing TEs are averaging 7.3 receptions/gm, 71.0 YPG, 0.5 TDs/gm, and 17.4 FPPG (4th most) against Pittsburgh.

Patriots D/ST: It’s not like the Steelers’ offense (18.0 implied points) is expected to light it up either so the Pats D/ST is firmly in play and should be much lower-owned than the Steelers D/ST.

K Chris Boswell / K Chad Ryland: You know the drill. Low-scoring game on a short week will likely lead to more FGs than TDs. Boswell will clearly be the more favorable/safer kicking option but Ryland could easily out-score him at much lower ownership.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: Note: Smith-Schuster is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. Assuming he plays, JuJu will see plenty of snaps, and high snaps = potential for more targets. His 92% snap% led all Patriots WRs last week, even though it led to just three targets and one reception. One of these Pats WRs is probably going to do enough to crack the optimal.

WR Tyquan Thornton: He only saw one target last week but it was a pass that traveled 42 yards through the air (and, honestly, he probably should’ve caught it). Thornton did add a 39-yard rush and played 80% of the snaps in week 13. So he should be on the field plenty in this game and, unlike most other Pats WRs, he does not carry an injury designation into Thursday night.

RB Ty Montgomery II / RB JaMycal Hasty: Low-confidence plays here. A past-his-prime Zeke Elliott is going to take on the lion’s share of the touches but Montgomery and/or Hasty should have some snaps and opportunities fall into their lap(s). It’s anyone’s guess as to who will benefit the most from the bump up in the depth chart because Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle/out) and Elliott have been the only Patriots RBs to log any snaps this season. Both LineStar and the consensus projections seem to favor Hasty, who is the stone minimum of $200 for this game.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Ezekiel Elliott

Remember to participate in the TNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet that will be posted midday on Thursday for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots D/ST, RB Jaylen Warren: Running backs and D/STs make for strong targets for this low-scoring slugfest. Elliott has guaranteed volume working in his favor and will see some dump-off targets as well. Pair him with Pats D/ST for correlation purposes and run it back with RB Jaylen Warren on the other side.

*QB Mitch Trubisky, WR George Pickens, WR Diontae Johnson: “Standard” CPTN Trubisky double-stack. It’s probably going to be as awful as it sounds but Trubisky at least has a history of some big fantasy performances back in his days as a routine starter. Pickens & Johnson are clearly the top two WRs on the team. Both run primarily on the perimeter, where the Pats have been getting lit up lately (most FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs L8Weeks).

*RB Jaylen Warren, Steelers D/ST, RB Ezekiel Elliott: Similar approach as the CPTN Zeke stack. We’re going to want plenty of exposure to run games and D/STs in this one. Warren’s value skyrockets if RB Najee Harris (knee/questionable) is eventually ruled out.

*WR Diontae Johnson, QB Mitch Trubisky, K Chris Boswell: Steelers-heavy stack that correlates well. Johnson and Trubisky move the ball down the field and set up FG attempts. As mentioned in his spotlight, there’s not much that separates Johnson from WR George Pickens -- either is a worthy option -- but I have slightly more faith in Johnson coming through with a productive game.

*Steelers D/ST + Four Steelers Players: Under this scenario, we’re assuming the Steelers’ defense either shuts the Patriots out or keeps them from scoring any touchdowns… while maybe picking up a defensive TD themselves. This would certainly open up the possibility of a 5-1 Steelers-heavy stack being the optimal build with Steelers D/ST being the optimal captain. If you had the displeasure of watching any significant portion of the Patriots’ game last week, you’ll know that this is an entirely realistic outcome.

*WR DeVante Parker, QB Bailey Zappe, RB Ezekiel Elliott: Here’s the “Patriots somehow scored 30+ points” stack that will have no right to actually work out… but just might. Due to numerous injuries, Parker was the clear-cut alpha WR for New England last week (though, that’s not saying much). If Parker does end up as the optimal captain, Zappe has a strong chance of being an optimal FLEX play. We’ll throw Zeke in to complete the unlikely, but theoretically possible, “Patriots offensive explosion” stack.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays for this game! Although, plenty of the unders look pretty enticing.

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!