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New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4) | 46 O/U

NO: 21.0 Implied Points | LAR: 25.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Michael Thomas - OUT/IR, RB Kendre Miller - Questionable

Score Prediction: Saints - 20, Rams - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Rams, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Saints, 5-1 Rams

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Kyren Williams: Heading into this season, this Rams backfield was viewed as a bit of a mystery and a likely committee. The rapid emergence of Kyren Williams quickly extinguished any previous questions as to who the Rams would rely on in the backfield. Williams missed four games with injury this season but, on a per-game basis, he has been the RB2 in fantasy scoring, predictably trailing only Christian McCaffrey. In the four games since returning from the IR, Williams is handling certified workhorse volume -- 22.3 rushes/gm, 5.5 targets/gm, 4.3 receptions/gm, 146.1 total YPG, and 1.0 TD/gm. On the season, the Saints have allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to RBs but they’ve been much softer against the run in recent weeks, allowing 125.8 rushing YPG to RBs L4Games. They also rank 24th in rush DVOA so we’re starting the see the Saints’ run defense regression come to fruition. Williams also averages +47.8% more FPPG in domed stadiums so, all-in-all, he’s going to be an obvious captain option on Thursday night.

WR Cooper Kupp: The downfall of Cooper Kupp was greatly exaggerated. Over the last three games, Kupp has averaged 8.7 targets/gm, 7.3 receptions/gm, and 87.0 YPG, and he has scored a touchdown in all three contests. Some of Kupp’s recent success is thanks to some improved play from QB Matthew Stafford, but that shouldn’t take away from Kupp looking more like his All-Pro caliber self. The match-up also works out well for Kupp this week. He has run 58% of his routes out of the slot, which is where the Saints are most vulnerable. New Orleans has allowed the 2nd fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs this season, but is mid-pack (15th most FPPG allowed) versus slot WRs. Alontae Taylor operates as New Orleans’ primary slot corner and he is, by far, the lowest-graded Saints CB who also happens to be the most targeted Saints CB (targeted on 24% of routes ran against him). And, with star cornerback Marshon Lattimore on the IR, Kupp will not have to worry about drawing his coverage when he does run on the perimeter.

WR Chris Olave: Olave sat out week 15 due to an ankle injury but he heads into Thursday’s game without an injury designation following a full practice on Wednesday. He was on a nice run before the week 15 absence, having either caught a touchdown or reeling in at least 114 yards receiving in five consecutive games. The Rams have been soft against the pass, allowing the 4th most FPPG to WRs L4Games. They’ve been particularly poor against perimeter WRs, allowing the 2nd most FPPG over the last eight weeks to boundary WRs. Olave runs a decent amount of routes out of the slot (40%) but over half of his routes will be on the perimeter. Olave, whose 39.8% air yard% ranks 8th among all NFL receivers, should immediately step back into being QB Derek Carr’s top target and the Saints will likely need to lean pass-heavy in order to keep pace with a rejuvenated Rams offense that is averaging 33 PPG over their last four games.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Alvin Kamara: The volume remains solid for Kamara, particularly as a pass catcher, but I’m not sure I can feel great about him as a core captain target. However, he’s firmly on the FLEX radar. A pair of comfortable blowout Saints wins could be to blame, but Kamara has only played just over 50% of the snaps across the last two games while Jamaal Williams has played around 45% of the snaps in that same span. The Saints also use TE/RB/QB Taysom Hill in a variety of redzone/goal-line packages, which is a sizable hit to Kamara’s touchdown equity. Finally, the Rams have allowed the fewest FPPG to RBs L4Games, and 4th fewest on the season. All of that being said, Kamara should still handle around 20 touches and his role as a pass catcher adds a nice boost in DraftKings’ full PPR scoring. He’s also averaging +34.6% more FPPG in domed stadiums. The field will probably feel the same way about Kamara as me (not a go-to captain play, but solid FLEX play), so he will likely end up as a lower-owned captain play if you’re looking to gain some leverage.

QB Matthew Stafford: Stafford has finally hit a nice stride, averaging 265.0 YPG, 3.0 TDs/gm, and 22.4 FPPG over his previous four starts. He will take on a Saints defense that has only given up 15.2 FPPG to QBs this season (6th fewest), but New Orleans has allowed +20% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road (last nine games). The Saints are also dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary and pass-rushing units, which only stands to benefit Stafford and the passing game. I feel fairly confident that Stafford won’t end up as the highest-scoring player in this game (thus dinging him on captain preference), but it’s tough to ignore the solid floor he brings to lineups as the 4th most expensive player on the slate.

QB Derek Carr: Carr has scored no more than 22.3 DKFP in any one game this season so, as far as upside goes, there’s perhaps not enough to warrant using him as a primary captain play. Fortunately, for Carr, he’ll face off with a Rams pass defense that has been fairly generous to opposing QBs lately. Over their last four games, the Rams are surrendering 2.3 pass TDs/gm, 11.3 yards per completion, and 24.1 FPPG to QBs. Carr will have Chris Olave back at his disposal and this is a game where the Saints will likely need to lean pass-heavy.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Taysom Hill: Predicting how Taysom Hill will be utilized in any given week is an exercise of futility. He could fail to record more than a couple of touches, like last week, or he could play a role as a passer, receiver, or rusher… or all three. And he always has some touchdown upside since the Saints like to utilize him as a versatile gadget guy near the goal line.

WR Demarcus Robinson: It looks like WR Tutu Atwell will get back in the mix this week after sitting out most of the last two weeks due to a concussion. Even so, Robinson was beginning to beat Atwell out for snaps. He has logged at least a 59% snap% in each of the last four games and got up to a 95% snap% last week. Robinson has also reeled in a touchdown in each of the last three games. He’s still, at best, third in the target pecking order, firmly behind Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and touchdowns aren’t something we can count on with any reliability. But, unless Atwell’s return does significant damage to Robinson’s snap rate, he’s a viable FLEX play at his $5,400 price tag. The match-up will not be kind, however, as he’ll likely run the majority of his routes against Isaac Yiadom, who is currently the #3 highest-graded cornerback in the NFL (per PFF.com).

K Lucas Havrisik / K Blake Grupe: Total in the mid-40s and an indoor kicking environment are two factors that tend to favor strong kicking performances. Grupe has the bigger leg with six 50+ yarders this season but Havrisik may benefit more from a Rams offense that has been very potent in recent weeks. Either guy is a “fine” value FLEX play.

WR Lynn Bowden Jr.: After Chris Olave, the Saints wide receiving corps becomes a bit muddled. One of Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed have been either out or injured mid-game over the last four games. Bowden has played at least 60% of the snaps in each of those last four games and he logged the most snaps of any Saints WR in week 15. Bowden and AT Perry will battle for WR3 duties with Keith Kirkwood possibly earning some snaps as well. Bowden has out-snapped Perry for three straight weeks, so he’ll get the slight nod from me when it comes to these cheap Saints WRs. I also just like Bowden’s versatility and big play ability going back to his college days at Kentucky.

TE Foster Moreau: The Saints' tight end room is also a mess so it’s tough to predict how things will shake out here. Moreau did out-snap all other Saints TEs with a 73% snap% in week 15 and he played at least 60% of the snaps in the two games prior. He could see a handful of targets or end up with a goose egg. For a $2,000 price tag, he’s worth some risk in GPP builds.

TE Jimmy Graham: The true definition of a “TD or bust” player. Graham has caught a touchdown in three consecutive games, but he has combined for 20 snaps, five total targets and receptions, and 31 total yards in that three-game stretch. But he does get into the game when New Orleans closes in on the endzone, so that makes him a worthy dart throw at $1,600 in a game that does not possess many viable punt plays.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Kyren Williams

Remember to participate in the TNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet that will be posted midday on Thursday for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Kyren Williams, K Lucas Havrisik, RB Alvin Kamara: We’ve got the RB2 (Williams) and RB3 (Kamara) in fantasy points scored per game in this match-up so it may not be a bad idea to load up on both in the same lineup. This will be a pricey duo so we can save some salary while also working in some correlation by rolling with Rams’ kicker Lucas Havrisik (someone must move the ball to help set up FG attempts). Average salary per remaining player: $5,866.

*WR Cooper Kupp, QB Matthew Stafford, TE Foster Moreau: The Kupp/Stafford connection seems to be back in business lately and the slot is, by far, the weakest part of an otherwise stout Saints secondary. This will also be an expensive WR/QB stack, so we’ll run with an affordable bring-back play in TE Foster Moreau. If Moreau continues to play around 75% of the snaps, like last week, he just seems to be too cheap at $2,000. Average salary per remaining player: $7,166.

*WR Chris Olave, QB Derek Carr, RB Kyren Williams: Olave is the 7th most expensive player on this showdown slate but he should provide an excellent floor/ceiling combination against a Rams secondary that has been exploited heavily in recent weeks. Stack him with Carr and, due to his relatively affordable captain salary, we can splurge on a premiere bring-back play in workhorse RB Kyren Williams. Average salary per remaining player: $5,633.

*RB Alvin Kamara, K Blake Grupe, RB Kyren Williams: Similar idea as the first stack but, in this scenario, we’re hoping for Kamara to edge out Williams (and every other player, for that matter) in fantasy points, while also switching over to Saints kicker Blake Grupe for some correlation. As mentioned in his spotlight, while I prefer Kamara as a FLEX play in this game, so will most everyone else so his captain rostership should stay fairly low. Average salary per remaining player: $6,000.

*QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Puka Nacua: Standard CPTN Stafford double-stack. The target tree is very condensed in this Rams offense so I believe you’ll want to lock in at least one of Kupp or Nacua [in any CPTN Stafford lineup]. Other receivers to either substitute or deploy in CPTN Stafford triple-stacks include (in order of preference): WR Demarcus Robinson, TE Tyler Higbee, RB Kyren Williams, and WR Tutu Atwell. Average salary per remaining player: $4,800.

*QB Derek Carr, WR Chris Olave, WR Lynn Bowden Jr.: Standard CPTN Carr double-stack. Olave feels like a borderline lock in any CPTN Carr lineup, but feel free to get creative with any secondary Saints receivers as there are more than a handful of other options that could work. Other receivers to mix into CPTN Carr lineups (in order of preference): WR Rashid Shaheed, RB Alvin Kamara, TE Taysom Hill, WR Lynn Bowden Jr., TE Foster Moreau, TE Juwan Johnson, TE Jimmy Graham, and WR AT Perry. Yeah… plenty of potential mouths to feed in that Saints (admittedly, very average) passing attack, but it does offer a way to build some unique showdown lineups. Average salary per remaining player: $8,300.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kyren Williams MORE than 124.5 Rush Yards (increased payout prop)

Foster Moreau MORE than 7.5 Receiving Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!