LineStar NFL DFS Primetime Preview 📺 | Thursday Night Football: Seahawks at Cowboys

Top DFS Plays, Props, and Strategy for Thursday Night Football!

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) | 47.5 O/U

SEA: 19.0 Implied Points | DAL: 28.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Kenneth Walker III - Doubtful, TE Will Dissly - Questionable

Score Prediction: Seahawks - 17, Cowboys - 27

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Cowboys, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Seahawks, 5-1 Cowboys

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR CeeDee Lamb: The Cowboys' offense has been a juggernaut as of late and since week six, no other WR, RB, or TE in the NFL is averaging more PPR fantasy points per game than CeeDee Lamb (26.85 FPPG). In that six-game span, he has caught 51-of-69 targets for 708 yards and five touchdowns while commanding a 30.8% target% and 39.8% air yard%. He’s been electric at home this season where he has averaged 108.2 YPG and 29.4 DKFP/gm. On top of his tendency to perform better at home, the Seahawks have allowed +20% more FPPG to WRs when they’re playing on the road (last nine games). We can fire Lamb up with confidence tonight.

 

QB Dak Prescott: In that same six-game span that began in week six, Prescott has put up an astounding 27.59 FPPG. He has scored at least 31.36 DKFP in four of his last five games and, like most other fantasy-relevant Cowboys players, Prescott has been spectacular at home this season where he has averaged 28.6 DKFP/gm (vs. 16.9 DKFP/gm on the road). The Seahawks' pass defense can be exploited as they check in at 23rd in pass DVOA and are allowing +22% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road (last nine games).

RB Tony Pollard: We’ll wrap up the “Top Captains & Core Flex Plays” section with a third Cowboy player. After being one of the more unlucky RBs in the NFL for much of the season when it came to expected touchdowns over actual touchdowns scored, Pollard has now found the endzone in each of the last two weeks. His 48 redzone opportunities are among the league leaders and the Cowboys boast one of the best offensive lines in the NFL so it was only a matter of time before Pollard’s strong volume translated into touchdown production. He’ll now go up against a Seahawks D that has allowed the most FPPG to RBs over the last four weeks, including 1.5 TDs/gm to the position in that span. With the Cowboys being -9.5 home favorites, Pollard should see a favorable game script come his way as well.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR DK Metcalf: Metcalf has drawn between nine and 14 targets in five of his last six games. His catch rate of 53.8% has been poor this season but, if the Seahawks hope to keep pace with this potent Cowboys offense, Metcalf is going to need to have a big game. He’s also QB Geno Smith’s number-one redzone option based on his 33.3% RZ target% this season. With RB Kenneth Walker doubtful to suit up tonight, the Seahawks will likely be forced to lean more pass-heavy, especially if they fall behind on the scoreboard early on. Metcalf will line up across from pick-six specialist DaRon Bland for most of his routes tonight. It’s a tough match-up, no doubt, but Bland has been the most targeted Cowboys CB (which I suppose helps his pick-six chances) and Metcalf is a solid bet to see 10+ targets this evening.

RB Zach Charbonnet: This is a rough match-up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 9th in rush DVOA and has allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs this season. That said, $6,800 is a very cheap showdown price to pay for a starting running back. Kenneth Walker III (oblique/doubtful) is poised to miss a second consecutive game. In his absence last week, Charbonnet played 88% of the snaps and handled 85.7% of the RB touches (DeeJay Dallas was the only other Seahawks RB to record snaps/touches with a 12% snap% and three total touches). Even if Charbonnet has a tough time on the ground, he can pick up some value via pass-catching work. At this salary, he could end up cracking the optimal lineup based on volume alone.

 

TE Jake Ferguson: He’s been quiet the last couple of weeks but Ferguson had hauled in a touchdown in three consecutive games between weeks eight and ten. Even with WR CeeDee Lamb having his outstanding six-game stretch, Ferguson still leads the team with a 25.8% RZ target% and he has run the second-most routes on the team this season (behind only CeeDee Lamb). The Seahawks have allowed just one touchdown to tight ends this season but, over the last four weeks, they are giving up 6.5 receptions/gm for 57.0 YPG to the position so TEs are still getting some nice production against this defense. Ferguson will play around 70-80% of the snaps and has a good chance to bring in a handful of receptions with a TD.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

Cowboys D/ST: The Cowboys D/ST has been a monster at home. In five home games, they’ve allowed just 12.0 points per game while averaging 16.2 FPPG. Defensive touchdowns are impossible to count on, but the Cowboys have scored seven D/ST touchdowns this season and four of those have come on their home field. Now you factor in the short week and offenses tending to struggle on Thursday Night Football (and in primetime in general this season) and you can see why this Cowboys D/ST deserves some DFS consideration tonight.

 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: JSN has played at least 62% of snaps in each of the last seven games and he got up to a 75% snap% last week. He operates primarily out of the slot (73% SlotRoute%) which means he’ll primarily face off with Cowboys’ slot corner Jourdan Lewis. This is a very skilled Dallas secondary but Lewis has been, by far, the lowest-graded Cowboys CB -- his 51.7 DEF grade (via PFF.com) ranks him 96th among NFL CBs. Smith-Njigba sets up as a nice, affordable play on the Seahawks' side of the ball this evening.

 

K Brandon Aubrey / K Jason Myers: Both kickers in this game have averaged double-digit fantasy points per game this season. Aubrey will quite clearly be the more favorable kicker, and he has posted 11.8 FPPG in five home games this season. Myers will provide some leverage and the Seahawks will likely have to settle for field goals on multiple drives tonight. Myers also has three 50+ yarders on the road this season. No weather concerns in this domed match-up.

 

RB Rico Dowdle: Dowdle will operate as the Cowboys’ RB2 behind Pollard but he has seen some meaningful touches as of late and has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games. He’ll play between 20-35% of the snaps with the potential for some additional late-game work in the event of a blowout.

 

WR Michael Gallup: It’s tough to feel confident in Gallup’s target volume as he has seen three targets or fewer in six games this season. That said, he does run 57% of his routes on the left perimeter which is where Seattle has been most vulnerable (8th most FPPG to LWRs L4Weeks).

 

TE Noah Fant: Geno Smith does not target his tight ends often but if Will Dissly (hip/questionable) sits out, then Fant becomes a somewhat viable value play. Dallas has allowed six TDs to TEs this season, which is tied with three other teams for most in the NFL.

 

WR Jalen Tolbert: He has played more snaps than Michael Gallup in each of the last three games and is averaging 4.5 targets/gm L4Weeks. He’s a cheap way to gain exposure to a potent Cowboys passing attack and could be viewed as the Dallas WR3 heading into tonight.

 

WR KaVontae Turpin: Touchdown or bust punt play. Turpin mostly works as the Dallas return man and has played more than 19% of offensive snaps just once this season. That said, three of his 10 receptions have gone for touchdowns and he could always house one on a return as well.

 

TE Colby Parkinson: Another low-confidence Seahawks TE punt play who could benefit from some extra snaps if TE Will Dissly (hip/questionable) is forced to sit out tonight.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Tony Pollard

Remember to participate in the TNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet the tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR CeeDee Lamb, QB Dak Prescott, K Brandon Aubrey: A correlating Cowboys-heavy stack. The Lamb/Prescott stack has been electric as of late, but they’ll be an expensive duo. We can find some salary relief by rolling with the Cowboys kicker, which also correlates with the Lamb/Prescott stack since someone has to move the ball and help set up field goal attempts.

*QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Jalen Tolbert: Standard CPTN Prescott double-stack. Lamb is close to a must-play in any CPTN Prescott lineups, but Tolbert is interchangeable with other receivers like Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson, and Michael Gallup, or complete punts like KaVontae Turpin or Jalen Brooks. RB Tony Pollard is also a stackable receiver with Dak as well since he should see a handful of targets tonight.

*RB Tony Pollard, Cowboys D/ST, WR KeVontae Turpin: Pollard and the Cowboys D/ST could correlate well in this one. Cowboys D dominates leading to additional Pollard touches. It’s a very unlikely scenario, but we’ll also roll with the Turpin punt and hope for the “kick returner touchdown + D/ST touchdown double dip.”

*WR DK Metcalf, QB Geno Smith, RB Tony Pollard: The targets should be plentiful for Metcalf in this game and he’s one of the better bets to find the endzone on the Seattle side tonight. He wasn’t spotlighted today, but if Metcalf ends up as the optimal captain, then Geno Smith likely ends up as an optimal FLEX play so we’ll complete the WR/QB stack there while rolling with a premium bring-back play with Pollard.

*RB Zach Charbonnet, QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb: Charbonnet is an intriguing captain play tonight. I expect him to be a very popular FLEX play due to his low price and guaranteed volume, but most will look elsewhere for their captain. He could easily touch the ball 20+ times in this game, especially if Seattle manages to keep the score fairly close. If he finds the endzone, Charbonnet could vault into optimal captain territory. With his low salary, we can comfortably roll with a premium Dak/Lamb bring-back stack.

*TE Jake Ferguson, QB Dak Prescott, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Seattle has been stingy when it comes to TEs scoring TDs against them but Ferguson remains the Cowboys’ redzone target leader deep into the season. A handful of receptions and a touchdown just may allow him to emerge as the optimal captain. Not likely, but possible. Stack him with Prescott and roll with an affordable Smith-Njigba on the bring-back. This will leave $8,166/player for the remaining three FLEX plays -- plenty enough for two more stud plays.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bobby Wagner MORE than 9.5 Tackles + Assists

Dak Prescott MORE than 21.5 Fantasy Score

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!