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Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) | 37 O/U

TEN: 17.3 Implied Points | PIT: 19.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins - Questionable, QB Ryan Tannehill - OUT, TE Pat Freiermuth - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: TEN - 20, PIT - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Titans, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Steelers

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Derrick Henry: The trade deadline came and went, and King Henry remained a Tennessee Titan despite all of the buzz about him possibly being shipped to the Ravens, Bills, or Chiefs, among others. When the Titans operate with or within striking distance of a lead, Henry remains a workhorse NFL back and his 120 rush attempts rank 4th among RBs this season. He may be on the back end of his prime, but Henry is still ranked solidly at 7th in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (2.0) and 11th in broken tackles. He’s also handling a hefty 76.5% redzone team rush%. Also, don’t look now but the temperatures are getting colder outside (a little under 40 degrees for most of this game) which is when Henry really thrives. The Steelers have been fairly generous to RBs this season, allowing the 10th most FPPG to the position. I believe having the rookie QB Will Levis at the helm may help open things up for Henry and the run game as well. If week eight was any indication, defenses will have to at least respect the downfield passing game more with Levis than they did with Ryan Tannehill, which may result in fewer stacked boxes for Henry to face. His 101 rushing yards last week was his second-highest total on the season, and he also tied a season-high with four targets from Levis in that game.

QB Will Levis: Even if Ryan Tannehill was healthy enough to play this Thursday, I’m not so sure he’d get the starting nod after rookie Will Levis’ superb NFL debut in week eight. Levis needed just two quarters to throw for as many touchdowns as Tannehill has thrown for in six starts this season (two). And Levis ended his debut by doubling that total with four passing TDs. Levis is not the most fleet of foot as a runner, but he did tack on 11 yards on seven rush attempts. In Levis’ junior year at Kentucky, he racked up nine rushing TDs and 376 rush yards. The Steelers do rank 9th in pass DVOA, however, they’ve allowed the 9th most pass YPG this season and, outside of Joey Porter Jr., they have some exploitable members in their secondary.

WR Diontae Johnson: Johnson’s early season was derailed by a hamstring injury but he has looked solid since returning to action in week seven and, most recently, he logged a season-high 91% snap% in week eight where he saw 14 targets come his way. In those last two games, Johnson has led the Steelers with 20 targets (31.8% target%), 13 receptions, 164 yards, and a 44.0% air yard%. The Titans defense is also a pass funnel. They’re very stingy on the ground (2nd in rush DVOA) but rate out poorly through the air (25th in pass DVOA) and they’ve allowed the 7th most FPPG to WRs on the season. Johnson hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since week 16 of 2021 but if he ever sees the touchdown luck break back in his direction, he’ll be capable of some big fantasy scores. But Johnson provides a strong volume-based floor as is, and the touchdowns will come sooner rather than later if he continues to see a 30+% target share.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR DeAndre Hopkins: Will Levis revitalized D-Hop’s 2023 campaign in a big way by connecting with him on three touchdown passes last week -- those happened to be the first, second, and third TDs for Hopkins this season. Hopkins was only targeted six times, but he made the most of those looks by catching four for 128 yards (and the three TDs, of course). He easily led the team with a 41.4% air yard% in week eight. Hopkins will likely run around 30-40% of his routes against Joey Porter Jr., who has quickly turned into a stud and ranks out as the #2 coverage corner in the NFL this season (per PFF.com). The rest of the Steelers’ coverage corners have been awful so, whenever Hopkins is lined up against the likes of a past-his-prime Patrick Peterson, Levi Wallace, or Chandon Sullivan, he’ll be locked into an advantageous match-up. Overall, the Steelers have allowed the 6th most FPPG to WRs this season. Hopkins currently carries a questionable designation into Thursday due to a toe injury, but it’d be a fairly big surprise if he doesn’t suit up for TNF.

WR George Pickens: With Diontae Johnson back in the mix, Pickens’ target volume takes a noticeable hit but it’s much more of a WR1-A/WR1-B type of situation between the two. Pickens has a knack for highlight-reel catches and plays, and he ranks 5th among NFL WRs in yards after the catch (per reception). He also fills the primary downfield receiving role in the Steelers offense and leads the team with a 13.4-yard aDOT. Feel free to refer back to Johnson’s spotlight above to see how this sets up as a plus match-up for the Steelers receiving duo. QB Kenny Pickett hasn’t been great this season, but he’ll have a chance to throw for a season-high in yardage this week while hopefully feeding his top two receivers plenty of passing volume.

RB Najee Harris: It’s far from an exciting play now that Harris and Jaylen Warren have nearly split snaps 50/50 this season. Harris still gets the slight nod as the Steelers’ RB1 and has played as high as 58% of the snaps in a game this season, while Warren has maxed out at a 48% single-game snap%. Harris is also handling 46.2% of the redzone rushes, compared to 30.8% for Warren. As touched on elsewhere, this is a rough match-up for either Steelers’ RB against the Titans' defensive front that has allowed the 8th fewest FPPG to RBs and ranks 2nd in rush DVOA. But the $7,200 price tag on Harris puts him firmly on the FLEX radar. This game projects to be low-scoring so 50-80 total yards with a few receptions and a touchdown would likely be enough to make Harris an optimal play. That’s maybe asking a lot from Harris based on how little he’s done this season, but it’s doable.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

Steelers D/ST: This is still a rookie QB starting for the Titans and the Steelers will have an advantage that the Falcons didn’t have last week, and that’s actual regular season game film on Will Levis with a better expectation of what he’s capable of as a passer. The Steelers defense has notched double-digit fantasy points in four of their last six games and they’re averaging 14.0 FPPG at home this season. They also rank 2nd in the NFL with an 18.3% turnover% and they’re 9th in QB pressure%. As far as D/ST pricing goes, they’re expensive at $5,600 in this showdown contest, but there are quite a few ways that they could land in the optimal lineup.

RB Tyjae Spears: Derrick Henry is still the bellcow but third-round rookie Tyjae Spears is still seeing plenty of time on the field. He has logged at least a 52% snap% in 5-of-7 games this season and does seem to be the preferred pass-catching back -- he has seen at least four targets in five games.

K Chris Boswell / K Nick Folk: Both kickers are in play for this game which is likely to see more field goals than touchdowns. These are also two reliable kickers. Boswell has connected on 12-of-13 FGA this season, including four 50+ yarders, and 9-of-9 PATs. Folk has made all 16 of his FGA, with three 50+ yarders, and he’s 12-of-12 on PATs. Winds won’t be an issue in this game either (~5 mph).

TE Chig Okonkwo: Okonkwo tied DeAndre Hopkins for a team-high six targets from Will Levis at QB last week and he ranked 2nd on the team with 20 routes run (behind Hopkins, 22 routes run). This has been a dormant Titans passing offense for much of the year, at least until Levis injected some life into it last week, but Okonkwo is 2nd on the team with a 17.0% target%. It is a brutal match-up (Steelers: 1st in TE DVOA) but Okonkwo will be on the field for the majority of snaps and Levis seems to want to get him the ball.

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: He’s going to lose some snaps with Treylon Burks back healthy, but Westbrook-Ikhine has led all notable Titans pass catchers with a 68.0% catch rate this season. He also connected on the only non-Hopkins TD reception from Levis last week.

TE Connor Heyward: With Pat Freiermuth riding the IR since week five, Heyward has taken over as the top receiving Steelers tight end. He has 73% and 86% snap% in the last two games and should be a decent bet to see a handful of targets at a cheap price tag. Heyward had a season-high in targets (6) and receptions (5) in week seven.

WR Chris Moore: It hasn’t amounted to much but Moore has played 46% of snaps this season. His targets are coming deep downfield with a team-high 22.6-yard aDOT so he really just needs one big play to return value on his bottom-of-the-barrel $400 salary.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

RB Derrick Henry

Remember to keep an eye out for the TNF TD Calls contest on the @LineStarApp Twitter account! Retweet for your chance to win prizes!

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Derrick Henry, QB Will Levis, K Nick Folk: Titans-heavy stack that should give you exposure to every Tennessee point scored. The Titans have just a 17.3 implied point total on Thursday night but the offense’s renewed life with Levis at the helm could lead to another week of outperforming expectations.

*QB Will Levis, WR DeAndre Hopkins, TE Chig Okonkwo: Standard CPTN Levis double-stack featuring his top two targets from last week.

*WR Diontae Johnson, QB Kenny Pickett, RB Derrick Henry: After playing a 43% snap% (injured week one) and 66% snap% in his first game back from the IR, Johnson rarely left the field last week (91% snap%) and, in turn, received 14 targets from QB Kenny Pickett. Expect more heavy target volume for Johnson against a pass funnel Titans defense. Pickett was not spotlighted in today’s newsletter, but if Johnson ends up as the optimal captain play, Pickett will likely be an optimal FLEX play. Since Johnson isn’t overly expensive (6th highest salary in this game), we can afford to go with the premium bring-back play with Henry.

*WR DeAndre Hopkins, QB Will Levis, TE Connor Hayward: Levis proved that Hopkins is, in fact, not washed with the three touchdown connections last week. We’ll see if the WR/QB duo can post up another big performance against a porous Steelers secondary. It will be a pricey stack, so we’ll save some salary with a cheap bring-back play in Steelers TE Connor Heyward.

*WR George Pickens, QB Kenny Pickett, WR Diontae Johnson: The Titans are stout against the run but can be beaten through the air, as touched on multiple times in this newsletter. I know they haven’t been a prolific passing offense by any means this season, but we’ll roll with a Steelers pass attack stack here and see if Pickett and the top two WRs can put up some big numbers.

*RB Najee Harris, Steelers D/ST, K Chris Boswell: The is the “Steelers beat the Titans by a score of 16 to 6 on Thursday night. Najee Harris punched in the game’s only touchdown while kicker Chris Boswell connected on all three of his field goal attempts. The Steelers D holds the Titans offense to a pair of field goals while wreaking havoc on rookie QB Will Levis all night.” stack. It’s not pretty but, like so many other primetime games this season, neither is this match-up.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks for Thursday’s game!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!

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