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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) | 49 O/U

MIN: 21.0 Implied Points | PHI: 28.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB Kenneth Gainwell - OUT

Score Prediction: MIN - 17, PHI - 28

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Eagles, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Vikings

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

QB Jalen Hurts: It was a forgettable week one performance for Hurts, but poor weather likely played a major factor in what was ultimately a conservative Eagles game plan. That’s less of a concern in this match-up with the Vikings on Thursday night. These two teams also met in week two of last season. It was a game where Hurts completed 26/31 passes for 333 yards and a score, and, more importantly (for fantasy purposes), he tacked on 57 yards rushing and two additional TDs on the ground. The Vikings secondary is far from great, or even good, and another 300+ yard day could be in the cards for Hurts. Minnesota also blitzed on an NFL-leading 52.6% of QB dropbacks in week one. All that tells me is that Hurts could be forced to routinely scramble out of the pocket and pick up yards with his legs. Something he is elite at. Despite all that blitzing, the Vikings only once sacked Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. Hurts is going to be a much more challenging QB to contain, and his dual-threat capability always makes him a worthy captain candidate.

WR DeVonta Smith: A strong case for captaincy can be made for either of the Eagles’ top two WRs. Both Smith and AJ Brown caught 7-of-10 targets in week one. Brown boasted the higher receiving yardage (79), but Smith found the endzone for Hurts’ lone TD pass. By now, we know that Brown is more of the downfield threat, while Smith does his damage on shorter/intermediate routes. If the Vikings blitz as much as they did in week one, I could see Smith leading the Eagles in target share on Thursday night. As a reminder, Smith is a super reliable pass catcher who hauled in 69.9% of his targets in 2022. It’s certainly not a knock on AJ Brown, who could easily end up being the better play, but Smith’s ceiling is about the same as Brown’s, but he typically has a safer floor. Smith also checks in with a $1,600 discount from Brown on this DraftKings showdown slate.

WR Jordan Addison: The most likely game script has the Vikings playing from behind in this one which means their passing attack will be emphasized. We all know that Justin Jefferson is a top-three receiver in the game. However, he’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Darius Slay on his perimeter routes. In Slay’s coverage last year, Jefferson was held to just one catch for seven yards on six targets (via ESPN) -- for the game, Jefferson finished with a pedestrian 12-6-48-0 receiving line. Jefferson’s $18,600 captain salary also heavily limits lineup flexibility in a game that features ample skill position talent and should see plenty of scoring. So, enter rookie WR Jordan Addison. Addison had a strong debut NFL performance, catching 4-of-6 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown -- and that was while playing only 56% of snaps. Despite the limited snaps, he was also the only Vikings player with multiple endzone targets. It’s fair to assume that his snap count should increase as the season progresses. The Eagles won’t have CB James Bradberry (concussion/out) available this week so Addison is expected to see plenty of coverage from 2022 undrafted free agent Josh Jobe, who has just 22 career snaps under his belt. Addison’s $6,400 base salary (CPTN: $9,600) makes him an affordable captain play with upside and will leave you with an average salary of $8,080 to fill out the rest of your lineup(s) with multiple studs.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Justin Jefferson: We just spent time discussing Jefferson’s match-up with Darius Slay, and how that could impact his ceiling. His best games also tend to come at home or in other domed stadiums (-41.7% less FPPG outdoors). With that in mind, Jefferson is still borderline match-up proof, and he’s going to be force-fed targets no matter where he’s playing or who he’s lined up across. Few players could put up 27.0 DKFP, as Jefferson did in week one, without scoring a touchdown. While he may not be a preferred captain play, Jefferson makes ample sense as a premium FLEX play.

TE TJ Hockenson: It’s tough to weigh one game too much, but based on the Eagles' performance last Sunday, it looks like they’re going to be most vulnerable against tight ends and slot receivers. Patriots TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki combined to catch 8/9 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown (23.2 DKFP). Hockenson, one of the NFL’s better tight ends, will be a major part of the game plan, and while he didn’t go for big yardage against the Bucs, he was heavily targeted, catching 8/9 passes from Kirk Cousins.

RB D’Andre Swift: For DFS purposes, the most notable injury absence in this game will be Eagles’ RB Kenneth Gainwell, who is out with a rib injury. It’s truly anyone’s guess as to how the RB workload will be distributed between the three healthy Philly RBs -- Swift, Boston Scott, and Rashaad Penny. Gainwell dominated snaps (62%) and RB touches (18-of-22) for the Eagles in week one. Though he had just two touches, Swift was second in the pecking order with a 29% snap%. All indications lead us to believe that Swift, a notable off-season acquisition, will get the first crack at lead RB duties. When healthy, Swift is a proven NFL running back who can break off big plays and make an impact as a receiver as well. For just $4,000, he should be one of the more popular value plays on the slate and does have appeal as a contrarian captain candidate.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

TE Dallas Goedert: Goedert should go massively overlooked and under-owned after failing to record a catch on his lone target in week one. But, as mentioned, the weather likely played a sizable factor in the conservative run-heavy game plan, and Goedert still logged a 92% snap%. The Vikings did not face any marquee tight ends last week but, in 2022, despite facing the third-fewest TE targets, they gave up the 18th most yards and tied for the 9th most TDs (seven) allowed to the position. Goedert went for 82 yards on five receptions (six targets) in this match-up last year. At $5,800, he makes for a prime under-owned FLEX play.

Eagles D/ST: It’s already been a common theme of D/STs showing up in the optimal lineups for these showdown slates, and the Eagles own one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL. They put up 13 FP in week one and, despite blitzing on just 22.4% of dropbacks (10th lowest%), they were able to apply pressure on 39.7% of dropbacks (4th highest pressure%). The Vikings O-Line is looking a little suspect after allowing Kirk Cousins to be sacked three times by the Pats in week one. Lincoln Financial Field is always a rowdy environment and a tough place to play for opposing offenses.

K Jake Elliott: Despite less-than-ideal conditions, Elliott connected on 4/4 FGAs last week and the Eagles (28.0 implied points) should be able to sustain plenty of drives against a lackluster Vikings defense. Winds are expected to mostly stay around, or under, 10 mph so kicking conditions won’t be too troublesome.

RB Boston Scott / RB Rashaad Penny: D’Andre Swift will not handle every single RB touch, and there is a real possibility that one of either Scott or Penny ends up being the featured back. I wouldn’t play both guys in the same lineup, but both are cheap FLEX options with solid touchdown potential.

RB CJ Ham: This section is filled with Eagles up to this point so let’s throw in a Vikings flier to wrap things up. In the post-Dalvin Cook era, Alexander Mattison looks to have a stranglehold on the lead RB duties. That was apparent in week one when he handled 70% of RB touches on a 73% snap%. However, Ham was in on 34% of snaps and was targeted three times — though, fair warning, he is used mostly as a fullback/blocker so the three targets could just be an outlier. Rookie RB Ty Chandler handled just 17% of snaps, gaining zero yards on three carries (but he did break off an 18-yard catch-and-run on his lone target). Ham may continue to see a few opportunities and could always luck his way into a goal line carry & touchdown. At $400, he won’t need a big day to return value.

Thursday Night Football TD Call

QB Jalen Hurts (Rush/Rec TD)

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, TE Dallas Goedert: Standard CPTN Hurts double-stack. You could substitute either Smith or Goedert with AJ Brown but I went with this Smith/Goedert stack combo to save a little salary. Stacking Smith AND Brown in the FLEX will leave you with just $4,433 per remaining player. Dropping down from Brown to Goedert results in a more manageable $6,033 per remaining player. As discussed above, despite playing nearly every snap last week, Goedert should go under-owned since he put up a week one goose egg by failing to haul in his one target. He’ll be more involved on Thursday night.

*WR DeVonta Smith, QB Jalen Hurts, TE TJ Hockenson: Smith’s excellent floor and strong ceiling always makes him an enticing CPTN play. We’ll complete the WR/QB stack with Hurts in the FLEX and run it back on the other side with Hockenson.

*WR Jordan Addison, QB Kirk Cousins, RB D’Andre Swift: Addison won’t have to deal with Darius Slay as much, and having an All-World receiver like Justin Jefferson around to draw the attention of the defense is never a bad thing. Addison won’t break the bank at CPTN and completing the stack with Cousins in the FLEX while using Swift as a cheap bring-back option still leaves plenty of room for multiple studs (Jefferson, Hurts, Brown, Smith, Mattison) in the remaining three FLEX positions.

*WR Justin Jefferson, QB Kirk Cousins, RB D’Andre Swift: Identical stack as above, just switching out Addison for the superstar Jefferson and banking on a ceiling game out of him despite all of the data telling us that this isn’t an ideal match-up. Sometimes you just ignore the data nerds (like me?) and play the best player on the field (at captain).

*TE TJ Hockenson, QB Kirk Cousins, WR AJ Brown: We discussed how vulnerable Philly looked against the Patriots' TEs in week one which could be foreshadowing for a big night out of Hockenson. With Hock at CPTN, we should continue to work in stack correlation with Cousins and load up on at least one of the big Eagles’ playmakers like AJ Brown on the other side.

*RB D’Andre Swift, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Justin Jefferson: Swift’s affordability and upside to be the lead RB for the Eagles will make him an intriguing value CPTN. At a CPTN salary of just $6,000, you can play just about any combination of stars in the FLEX.

4-2 Vikings Stacks: At least 80% of lineups will feature either 4-2 Eagles-heavy stacks or balanced 3-3 stacks. Going heavy on a 4-2 Vikings stack will provide major leverage. The Vikings also have a narrower distribution of targets and touches, while the Eagles have many more guys who could eat into one another’s production.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

DeVonta Smith + Dallas Goedert MORE than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs (Combo)

TJ Hockenson MORE than 5.0 Receptions

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!