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San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks | 49.0 O/O

49ers: 26.3 Implied Points | Seahawks: 22.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [SF] RB Christian McCaffrey - OUT/IR, [SF] K Jake Moody - OUT, [SF] WR Chris Conley - Questionable

Score Prediction: 49ers - 24, Seahawks - 22

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 49ers, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Seahawks, 5-1 49ers

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Jordan Mason: This game is chock full of fantasy-relevant players so I’m not sure if rolling with the most expensive option on the board in Jordan Mason will be the safest route to take. Nonetheless, Mason has filled in very well in place of the injured CMC -- his 105 carries leads all NFL RBs and only Derrick Henry (572 yards) has put up more rush yards than Mason (536). Mason could also easily have more than his current three TDs up to this point based on the fact that he has handled a significant 26 redzone opportunities. It’s also not a bad match-up as the Seahawks have allowed the 8th most rushing yards to RBs and the 11th most adjusted FPPG to RBs. The only real knock on Mason, from a DFS perspective, is that he is not overly involved as a pass catcher out of the backfield.

WR DK Metcalf: Metcalf will have his work cut out for him against a 49ers secondary that has allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs (Metcalf: 85% PerimeterRoute%). That said, under the new coaching regime, he has been the focal point of this Seahawks passing attack. Metcalf has run more routes (202) than any player in the NFL, and he checks in at 8th with 506 targeted air yards, which equates to a 41.3% share of Seattle’s total air yards. Metcalf was quieted to 55 yards on four receptions (seven targets) last week, but he had ripped off three consecutive 100+ yard receiving games in the weeks prior. He is going to be a tad risky in this match-up, but there is no question that he has the sort of upside to end the night as the optimal captain, especially if Seattle (+3.5) is playing from behind for much of this game.

WR Deebo Samuel: I don’t put much stock in year-over-year results versus a particular team, but it is pretty difficult to ignore Deebo Samuel’s consistently strong results against the Seahawks over his career. In seven games against Seattle, Samuel has scored seven TDs and averaged a stout 110.7 receiving YPG on 9.0 targets/gm while also tacking on 19.3 rush YPG. The Seahawks have been fairly tough against opposing WRs, allowing the 11th fewest FPPG to the position. However, they have allowed the most FPOE (fantasy points over expected) to WRs over the last four games and they’ll also be without starting CB Riq Woolen and possibly without starting safety Julian Love (questionable). A calf injury that kept him out in week three could be to blame for a couple of lackluster games since, but if that injury is behind him, I like his chances at a big game tonight.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB Kenneth Walker III: KW3 was held to just 19 yards on five rushes last week, but his seven receptions on eight targets for 57 yards saved his day, for fantasy scoring purposes, and largely cemented his status as a “game script independent RB”. Walker is 4th in the NFL with 2.9 YAC/attempt and is averaging an efficient 5.5 YPC. The 49ers defense is missing multiple key interior defensive linemen, and they have also allowed the 7th most receiving yards to RBs this season.

QB Brock Purdy: For the second season in a row, Purdy is leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.8), and, given the strong supporting cast around him, he simply brings a high floor to the table week in and week out. Purdy has also tacked on 21.6 rush YPG this season, which is a nice boost to his DFS floor. The Seahawks defense has applied pressure on an NFL-high 35.3% of dropbacks while ranking 5th in sacks (17), but Purdy has shown proficiency in the face of pressure during his somewhat brief NFL career. While his ceiling is somewhat questionable in this spot, Purdy is probably the best floor play in this game.

TE George Kittle: Kittle has been the TE1 in fantasy on a per-game basis, averaging 15.9 FPPG in four contests this season. He has hauled in 79.3% of his targets and has been a major factor in the redzone with a 26.9% RZ Target% and three RZ touchdowns. We’ll like the match-up against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 9th most adjusted FP to TEs.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Tyler Lockett: Lockett has not been the downfield threat this season that he has been for much of his career but he is still averaging a respectable 54.8 YPG and has scored at least 9.6 DKFP in 4-of-5 games. His upside is questionable with DK Metcalf clearly taking over as the alpha WR and Jaxon Smith-Njigba looking good in his second NFL season -- JSN also draws the best match-up among SEA WRs out of the slot. But at a $5,400 price tag, Lockett sets up as a worthy FLEX play and, after being held without a TD through the first five games, he’s sure to find the endzone soon… perhaps tonight (Lockett: +250 ATTD odds).

K Jason Myers / K Matthew Wright: No issue with either kicker as a “last man in [your lineups]” selection. Myers has had some accuracy issues with three missed FGs this season, but he has also ended with a double-digit fantasy score in 3-of-5 games. Wright takes over for the injured Jake Moody and may go under-owned even though he’s kicking for the better offense in this game. No wind/weather concerns in Seattle tonight.

49ers D/ST: San Fran has been the #5 D/ST in fantasy this season and they’re 8th in both pressure% and sacks. Geno Smith has been the second-most sacked QB in the NFL and he has thrown four INTs (has also lost a fumble). The Seahawks have led the NFL with a 67.4% PassPlay%, which just means more INT and sack opportunities for the opposing defense.

WR Jauan Jennings: With all of the key 49ers skill position players healthy (excluding CMC), Jennings is back to 3rd, at best, in the target pecking order and more than likely he’s 4th. However, he’s still going to play around 60% of the snaps and should see around a handful of targets. Viable FLEX play at this $4,000 salary.

RB Zach Charbonnet: Even with Kenneth Walker III back in action, Charbonnet has held onto a meaningful role. He has played around 40% of the snaps the last two weeks (with Walker back) and, while he only has handled four carries in that span, he has combined for 10 targets in those two games. Charbonnet won’t necessarily need an injury (to Walker) or a luckbox TD to be a viable FLEX play at $3,400.

TE Noah Fant: Fant easily leads the Seattle TE room with a 68% snap% this season. The production hasn’t been great but Fant is in play as a $3,000 dart throw in the hopes that he’ll have a similar game to week three where he caught all six of his targets for 60 yards (12.0 DKFP).

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Jordan Mason, 49ers D/ST, WR Tyler Lockett: Mason is a certified workhorse while CMC remains out and he may be running with some extra motivation after losing a costly late-game fumble last week (the first lost fumble of his career) in a game that the 49ers went on to lose by one point. We’ll work in some correlation by stacking Mason with the 49ers D/ST and using an affordable Lockett as a bring-back play. Mason is the most expensive player in this game but utilizing the 49ers D/ST and Lockett will still leave room for two or three stud FLEX plays. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $8,366.

*WR DK Metcalf, QB Geno Smith, RB Zach Charbonnet: Tough match-up for Metcalf, as discussed in his player spotlight, but the Seahawks are airing it out more than any other team this season and Metcalf has been a direct beneficiary. Geno Smith wasn’t spotlighted in this newsletter but we’ll stack him with CPTN Metcalf for obvious correlation purposes while saving some salary with Charbonnet, who has been a key contributor as a pass catcher even with KW3 back in action. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,966.

*WR Deebo Samuel, QB Brock Purdy, K Matthew Wright: Samuel has been a nightmare for the Seahawks over the years and, after a couple of down weeks, I’m looking for him to rack up 100+ scrimmage yards and find the endzone tonight. Stack with Purdy and work in more correlation with 49ers fill-in kicker Matthew Wright (someone has to move the ball to set up FG attempts). This stack will still allow you to fit in two more stud plays fairly easily. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,600.

*RB Kenneth Walker III, QB Geno Smith, K Jason Myers: Seahawks-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every point scored by this offense tonight. Walker has seen 5.3 targets/gm from Geno Smith this season so there is some QB + pass catcher correlation there. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,033.

*QB Brock Purdy, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle: Standard CPTN Purdy double-stack. As always, the trickiest part about CPTN Purdy lineups is deciding on which 49ers receivers to stack with him. Deebo and Kittle are as solid of a combination as any but you could easily sub either one out for Aiyuk, who finally posted a game worthy of his huge contract in week five (12-8-147-0 target/receiving line). Other pass catchers to mix into CPTN Purdy lineups (in order of preference): WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Jaun Jennings, RB Jordan Mason, FB Kyle Juszczyk. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,566.

*TE George Kittle, QB Brock Purdy, RB Kenneth Walker III: Kittle has been a steady force at a notoriously fickle position and saw a season-high 12 targets last week. The Seahawks’ defense has seen the 7th most TE targets this season. Stack with Purdy and, with Kittle’s fairly affordable captain salary, we can go with a premium bring-back option with KW3. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,566.

TNF Touchdown Calls Contest

Retweet the TD calls below for your chance to win a free month of a LineStar premium subscription!

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video attached at the top of this newsletter!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!