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- LineStar NFL DFS Primetime Preview šŗ | TNF: Bengals at Ravens!
LineStar NFL DFS Primetime Preview šŗ | TNF: Bengals at Ravens!
Getting you ready for tonight's primetime NFL showdown!
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6) | 52.5 O/U
Bengals: 23.3 Implied Points | Ravens: 29.3 Implied Points
Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [CIN] WR Tee Higgins - Doubtful, [CIN] RB Zack Moss - OUT/IR, [BAL] TE Isaiah Likely - OUT, [BAL] RB Keaton Mitchell - Questionable (would be season debut), [CIN] TE Erick All Jr. - OUT/IR, [CIN] WR Charlie Jones - Doubtful
Score Prediction: Bengals - 24, Ravens - 31
Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Ravens, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bengals, 5-1 Ravens
Players & Stacks to Consider
Top Captains & Core Flex Plays
QB Lamar Jackson: Bit of a no-brainer to slide Lamar Jackson in as a top captain choice tonight. He has put up at least 22.9 DKFP in 8-of-9 games this season and even after rushing for a season-low four yards last week vs. DEN, he countered by throwing for 280 yards and 3 TDs on just 19 pass attempts. His best fantasy game of the season came in the first meeting between these two teams in week five where Lamar went for 348 yards and 4 TDs through the air while tacking on 55 yards rushing on 12 carries -- good for 37.42 DKFP. This Lamar Jackson-led Ravens offense is a true juggernaut that should continue to put up big numbers against a Bengals defense that is 25th in total DVOA. The Bengals have also allowed the most rushing yards to QBs this season.
WR JaāMarr Chase: Tee Higgins (quadriceps/doubtful) is poised to miss his third consecutive game. While Higgins and Chase often have productive complementary games while sharing the field and targets together, with the former out of the picture, the latter should easily pace the Bengals receivers in targets. He has had 11 targets in back-to-back games without Higgins. Chase also torched this Ravens secondary in week five to the tune of a 10-193-2 receiving line on 12 targets. The Ravens did bolster their secondary, which has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs and most pass YPG this season, by trading for two-time Pro Bowler CB TreāDavious White from the Rams. However, White isnāt the same caliber player he once was and had been a healthy scratch for the Ramsā previous four games. Look for Chase to eat tonight against one of the most clear-cut pass funnel defenses in the NFL (BAL: 23rd in pass DVOA, 3rd in rush DVOA).
TE Mark Andrews: There is no shortage of absolute fantasy superstars to choose from in this game, so rolling the dice on a cheap captain so you can load up on studs in the FLEX has plenty of merit. With TE Isaiah Likely (hamstring) out for the first game this season, Mark Andrews should be the unquestioned featured tight end in the Ravensā offense. Andrews has just an 11.3% Target% this season, to Likelyās 13.3%, but he has been more involved in recent weeks, especially near the red zone. For a guy who could easily put up 20+ DKFP, heās simply too cheap at $4,200 (CPTN: $6,300) and you can easily jam in three or four high-end players in the FLEX by slotting him in at captain. No issues with the match-up as the Bengals rank 25th in TE DVOA and have allowed the 5th most FPPG to the position L4Games.
Flex Plays & Leverage Captain Options
RB Derrick Henry: Itās not often the RB1 in fantasy football will be placed outside of the āCaptains & Core FLEX Playsā section, but that just speaks to how chock full of fantasy studs reside on both of these offenses. Henry, who has 13 TDs through nine games this season, has found the endzone in every game with his new Ravens squad. He had a down game against the Bengals in week five, but a ādown gameā for Henry this season is 15 carries for 92 yards and a TD. If you believe this match-up wonāt be the same sort of pass-happy shootout that it was in week five, Henry would be a prime captain candidate but you clearly canāt go wrong by inserting him as a FLEX play either. The Bengals have allowed +26% more FPPG to RBs when playing on the road (last nine).
QB Joe Burrow: Not having Tee Higgins available does ding Burrowās upside, but that also didnāt stop him from throwing for five TDs and putting up 30.14 DKFP against the Raiders last week. Still, even against a Ravens defense allowing 301.8 pass YPG and 1.9 pass TDs/gm to QBs, I just view this as a āgood-not-greatā night for Burrow. The Ravens have shown the ability to tighten down on opposing pass offenses when theyāre at home, and theyāve only surrendered 15.5 FPPG to QBs in their four home games. Burrow remains a high-floor FLEX play and, if you believe he has it in him to replicate his week five success versus Baltimore, then he could be viewed as a leverage captain play as well.
WR Zay Flowers: In a bold decision by Denverās coaching staff, Zay Flowers was not shadowed by superstar CB Patrick Surtain II last week, which resulted in a monster 32.7 DKFP explosion for the second-year WR (no WR had even reached 18 FP against Denver this season prior to Flowersā week nine showing, per Mike Clay, ESPN). The Ravens recently acquired WR Diontae Johnson from the Panthers and, after playing a 30% snap% and seeing zero targets, we can certainly expect heāll be more involved this week. But Flowers remains the clear-cut WR1 for Baltimore. Though the pass volume can be low in some weeks for this offense, Flowers and his team-leading 27.7% Target% continue to make him a dangerous threat to pop off in any given week.
RB Chase Brown: I only try to stick to spotlighting three players in each of these first two sections but I donāt want to completely ignore the opportunity that Chase Brown has ahead of him. With Zack Moss (neck/IR) potentially out for the season, this is now Chase Brownās backfield to command. In the first full game without Moss available in week nine, Brown logged a season-high 80% snap% and took 32 total touches (27 carries/5 receptions) for 157 yards and a TD. The Bengals did trade for RB Khalil Herbert this week, and itās reported that heās expected to play, but that would likely be in a very limited role considering that trade just happened on Tuesday. Itās probably going to be tough sledding for Brown on the ground, as the Ravens are 3rd in rush DVOA and have allowed the 2nd fewest rushing YPG (58.4) to RBs. However, Brown can make an impact as a receiver -- the Ravens allow the 4th most receiving YPG (46.4) to RBs.
Flex Fillers, Fliers, & Sleepers
TE Mike Gesicki: For all intents and purposes, Mike Gesicki has taken over as the interim No. 2 receiver while Tee Higgins has been out these last two weeks. He put up a monster 30.0 DKFP in week nine, and over the last two games, he has hauled in 12-of-14 targets for 173 yards and two TDs. It is worth noting that Gesicki only played 36% of the snaps last week, and 53% of the snaps the week prior. The Bengals tend to mix in four TEs regularly, but with rookie Erick All Jr. now on the IR, the TE snaps should be condensed a bit more. Itās a strong match-up versus a Ravens defense that is 27th in TE DVOA.
WR Rashod Bateman: Bateman may go overlooked as a FLEX option tonight following Flowersā big week nine performance and the presumption that Diontae Johnson will be more involved. However, it is a short week so that latter point may be only marginally true. Bateman is viewed as a big play threat in this offense and leads the team with a 13.9-yard aDOT. The chemistry with QB Lamar Jackson is already well-established and he went for an 8-4-58-1 target/receiving line against the Bengals in week five. Bateman has also run 51% of his routes on the left perimeter. That should match him up with CB Cam Taylor-Britt for much of the game, who covers that side of the field 82% of the time. The Bengals (and largely Cam Taylor-Britt) have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to LWRs this season, which has easily been their weakest mark (CIN: 3rd fewest FPPG to slot WRs and 9th fewest FPPG to RWRs).
K Justin Tucker / K Evan McPherson: Iām a little lower on kickers for this game than I am for most primetime showdown slates, but either kicker is still a āfineā FLEX play with the potential for double-digit fantasy points. Justin Tucker would be the preferred option out of the two. No glaring weather concerns in Baltimore tonight either.
WR Diontae Johnson: As mentioned, Johnson only played 30% of the snaps in his Ravens debut and saw zero targets on a day where Lamar Jackson only attempted 19 passes. Johnson is likely still learning the playbook and, on a short week, I donāt believe heāll all of a sudden jump up to a 70+% snap%. But maybe a 50% snap% with a handful of targets in a potential shootout? Could easily happen.
WR Andre Iosivas: Iosivas doesnāt get as large of a bump as many may think with Tee Higgins sidelined. He has just a 12.5% Target% in the four games without Higgins this season. That said, he has played no fewer than 77% of the snaps in those four games, and at least 88% in 3-of-4 games, so heās going to be on the field for the vast majority of offensive plays tonight. Iosivas has proven to be a reliable redzone target for Joe Burrow this season, so perhaps he cracks the optimal if he goes for a 4-40-1 type of receiving line tonight. Iosivas, who has run the most routes out of the slot, does draw a favorable match-up as the Ravens have allowed the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs.
TE Drew Sample: Played a season-high 76% of snaps last week and caught all four targets for 14 yards and a TD. The Bengals seem to like Sample as an all-purpose TE who can both block and step in as a reliable redzone target. I wouldnāt be playing multiple Bengals TEs in the same lineup but Sample could be viewed as a major pivot off of the higher-owned Mike Gesicki.
WR Jermaine Burton: Burton was a healthy scratch last week but played 41% of snaps in week eight where he broke loose for a big 41-yard catch. HC Zac Taylor says he expects Burton to play tonight but weāll have to wait for inactives to come out 90 minutes before kickoff to determine if thatās true or not. Burton is a boom-or-bust option tonight but his average aDOT on seven targets this season has been a whopping 27.8 yards downfield. One big play could land him in the optimal in this game.
TE Charlie Kolar: The Ravens have only played three guys at TE this season -- Isaiah Likely (59.7% snap%), Mark Andrews (56.1% snap%), and Charlie Kolar (27.4% snap%). With Likely out, Kolar should pick up a decent chunk of his snaps and routes. His best fantasy game of the season, by far, also came against the Bengals in week five where he caught 3-of-4 targets for 64 yards and a TD (also had a two-yard rush, haha). Itās unlikely heāll replicate that success but for a player priced at $600 on DraftKings, heās perhaps the best pure punt play on the slate.
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That will wrap us up with todayās āPrimetime Previewā edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!