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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) | 48.5 O/U

Bills: 23.0 Implied Points | Dolphins: 25.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: RB De’Von Achane - Questionable, RB Raheem Mostert - OUT, WR Malik Washington - OUT

Score Prediction: Bills - 27, Dolphins - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Bills, 4-2 Dolphins

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

WR Tyreek Hill: There was no shortage of media coverage on Tyreek Hill on the first NFL Sunday of the season after he had his well-documented incident with law enforcement on his way to the stadium. Of course, that didn’t stop the superstar wideout from suiting up later that day. It was looking like a very pedestrian day for Tyreek before he broke loose for a run-of-the-mill 80-yard catch-and-run touchdown with two minutes left in the third quarter. Hill’s 12 targets were easily a team-high, ahead of RB De’Von Achane (7) and fellow WR Jaylen Waddle (5) -- no other Dolphins pass catcher saw more than three targets from QB Tua Tagovailoa. What’s more notable, and not at all surprising, is that Hill accounted for a whopping 63.8% of Miami’s total week-one air yards. Hill also ran the most routes out of the slot (45% slot route%) which, if repeated tonight, could be a positive against Bills slot corner Cam Lewis, who was targeted on a team-high 32% of routes ran in his coverage last week. With the Dolphins’ backfield banged up, Tyreek could also operate as an extension to the run game on shorter underneath routes but he will also see his fair share of deep shots, as usual. He is quite obviously one of the best captain plays in this game.

QB Josh Allen: Thanks to his excellent rushing and redzone TD scoring upside, Josh Allen is a top play on any slate he’s on. This Bills’ receiving corps will continue to shake out, in terms of who the top option(s) will be, but that is something we should get more clarity on as the season progresses. While he didn’t throw for huge yardage against the Cardinals in week one, just 232 yards, Allen was efficient with a 78.3% comp% on 18-of-23 passing with two TDs against no INTs. And he put his fantasy day over the top with 39 yards on the ground and two rushing TDs. We can’t count on those rushing TDs to come through every week, but I would expect a better day for Allen through the air as the Bills find themselves as 2.5-point road ‘dogs in what is expected to be another shootout. Allen has also thrown 2+ TDs in all 13 games against the Dolphins in his career. The only real question with Allen, when slotting him in as your captain, is which player(s) to stack with him.

WR Keon Coleman: Bit of a risky captain recommendation here but, in my mind, Coleman is the favorite to lead this team in targets this season and, given his $5,800 salary ($8,700 captain), you can really put some intriguing lineup builds together with him as your captain. Coleman’s five targets (21.7% target%) in week one were a team-high, his 73% snap% easily led all Bills WRs, and he accounted for a 27.7% AirYard% (2nd on the team). We know Josh Allen and the Bills are going to have to pass the ball more tonight and they have averaged +39% more passes when they’ve been underdogs (last nine games).

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

RB De’Von Achane: We’ll work under the assumption that Achane (ankle/questionable) will suit up tonight, but the Dolphins will confirm his availability after he goes through some pre-game workouts. If he were 100% healthy, Achane would be a core captain play for me since his backfield running mate, Raheem Mostert, is out with a chest injury. But even a 70-80% healthy Achane is a dangerous player and certainly worth plenty of lineup consideration tonight. Achane exploded onto the scene in week three of his 2023 rookie season, taking 22 touches for 233 yards and four TDs. He had a couple of big games the following weeks before missing time with injury, then he put up more than 13.1 DKFP just twice over his final seven games. If he does suit up, he doesn’t seem likely to handle a heavy workload, with veteran RB Jeff Wilson Jr. and rookie RB Jaylen Wright available to contribute meaningful touches. But Achane is the type of dynamic RB that doesn’t need huge volume to turn in a monster fantasy score and he should see his fair share of passing volume (caught 7-of-7 targets in Wk1) if the Bills force the Dolphins to stay aggressive on offense.

RB James Cook: Cook’s 61% snap% in week one won’t put him near the top of the RB rankings in that regard but, when he was on the field, odds were that he was going to touch the ball. Cook recorded either a rush or reception on 57.9% of his snaps (22 touches on 38 snaps). He didn’t make it into the endzone but he did have three redzone rushes and Josh Allen isn’t going to score all of the Bills’ rushing TDs every week. Fellow Bills RBs, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, both recorded one redzone rush apiece, so Cook should be the favored RB option in RZ territory until proven otherwise. The Dolphins’ run defense allowed 4.9 YPC to the Jaguars last week so Cook may find some solid success tonight while also mixing in with a few receptions.

WR Jaylen Waddle: With Tyreek Hill demanding so much attention from the opposing defense, Jaylen Waddle often finds himself lost (aka wide open) in the secondary. We saw that happen a couple of times in week one and, although Waddle’s five targets didn’t represent huge volume, he was able to bring all of them in while racking up 109 yards (21.8 YPC). His 14.4-yard aDOT (average depth of target) was also a team-high and while his 32.1% AirYard% was far below Tyreek Hill’s, that’s still a strong portion of the team’s total air yards. Waddle would undoubtedly be the No. 1 option on many NFL teams but the fact that he is generally viewed as the WR2 in this offense is baked into his current DraftKings showdown salary. He still generally has a solid floor and an excellent ceiling that could land him in the optimal lineup, either as a FLEX or Captain.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Khalil Shakir: I typically try to keep players who are $6,000 or under in this section, but Shakir is only barely above that threshold at $6,200. He only saw three targets from Josh Allen in week one but, again, it was a week where there were only 23 pass attempts. Shakir caught all three of his targets for 42 yards and one of Josh Allen’s two TD passes. He played 73% of his snaps out of the slot so he will generally see those higher-percentage underneath passes and, after spending the last three seasons in Buffalo since entering the NFL, Shakir technically has the longest track record and rapport with Josh Allen among the current Bills pass catchers (excluding TE2 Dawson Knox).

K Tyler Bass/K Jason Sanders: As usual, kickers are solid “last guy in” FLEX fillers on showdown slates and they’ll often go under-owned relative to their floor/consistency. I don’t think we’ll see a Jake Moody-esque Monday Night Football performance (26 DKFP!?), but both of these kickers play on quality offenses that should be able to set up multiple FG opportunities tonight. As I typically recommend, if you do slot in a kicker, it is encouraged to correlate them with your captain (e.g. CPTN Tyreek Hill --> FLEX K Jason Sanders or CPTN Josh Allen --> FLEX K Tyler Bass).

TE Jonnu Smith/TE Durham Smythe/TE Julian Hill: Tight ends are not used as pass catchers very often in this Mike McDaniel/Tua Tagovailo-led offense, but that isn’t to say that one of these guys couldn’t work out as a FLEX flier tonight. As a mild surprise, Julian Hill (59% snap%) led the Miami TEs in snaps during week one, followed by Smythe (42% snap%) and Smith (28% snap%). However, Hill was mostly used as a blocker and only saw one target. Smythe saw three targets (no catches) and Smith saw two. All three guys will be a roll of the dice, and I definitely wouldn’t play more than one in any given lineup, but the tight ends could be more involved tonight with a banged-up run game and, if one of these TEs luckboxes a touchdown, they could easily end up as an optimal play.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr./RB Jaylen Wright: These are the two most intriguing fliers on this showdown slate. The stock for both guys will skyrocket if De’Von Achane (ankle/questionable) is ruled out. But, even if Achane plays, the Dolphins are going to give at least one of these other RBs some significant touches. My money would be on Jeff Wilson Jr., but Jaylen Wright is the more exciting play. Wright is a rookie RB out of Tennessee who has 4.3 speed and recorded the second-highest athleticism score (93) among RBs at this year’s NFL combine. Expect Jeff Wilson Jr. to fill in more of the Raheem Mostert role while Wright is utilized in a similar fashion to Achane.

WR Mack Hollins: Hollins hauled in a touchdown in week one, which makes this play feel a bit “touchdown chase-y”, but he was on the field for 58% of snaps -- second most among Bills WRs. Hollins also lined up all across the field -- 43% RWR, 29% Slot, and 29% LWR. I would expect WR Curtis Samuel (27% snap% Wk1) to be a bit more involved after he entered last week’s contest off of a turf toe injury. But, for now, Hollins remains a viable dart throw if you’re in search of some savings and/or want a cheap receiver to stack with Josh Allen.

WR Braxton Berrios: His 37% snap% wasn’t exactly high in week one, but that was third-highest among Dolphins’ WRs behind, of course, Tyreek and Waddle. Berrios didn’t record a catch on two targets but he may see a handful of looks tonight. Cardinals’ slot WR Greg Dortch put up a solid target/receiving line (8-6-47-0) against the Bills last Sunday.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Keon Coleman: Barring injury, there are very few scenarios in which Tyreek Hill doesn’t land in as an optimal play tonight -- either as a FLEX or Captain. The targets are likely to be in the double digits and, as we saw last week, he can house it at any moment. We didn’t spotlight QB Tua Tagovailoa in this newsletter but we’ll keep the correlation alive by stacking him with CPTN Tyreek while saving a little salary on the bring-back play by rolling with WR Keon Coleman. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,800.

*QB Josh Allen, WR Keon Coleman, WR Khalil Shakir: Standard CPTN Allen double-stack. We’re still figuring out how the targets are going to generally be distributed among this Bills receiving corps, but Coleman and Shakir are two of the more reliable bets. Other Bills pass catchers to mix in with CPTN Allen stacks (in order of preference): TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Mack Hollins, WR Curtis Samuel, RB James Cook, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, TE Dawson Knox.

*WR Keon Coleman, QB Josh Allen, WR Tyreek Hill: Josh Allen has made some encouraging comments surrounding rookie WR Keon Coleman and it was nice to see him command a team-leading five targets in week one. Bigger games are sure to come for the former Florida State playmaker. With his economical captain salary, we can afford to take Tyreek as the premium bring-back play (while, of course, stacking with Allen). Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,233.

*RB De’Von Achane, QB Josh Allen, TE Dalton Kincaid: As long as Achane is able to suit up, he should garner some showdown respect. The guy is electric and, even if he’s not 100%, he’s a big play threat with every touch he gets. The Bills’ run defense looked just “okay” in week one so I don’t view this as a horrible match-up for the Miami backfield. We’ll go with an Allen + Kincaid stack as the bring-back plays here. Kincaid wasn’t discussed in detail in this newsletter, but he is pretty much guaranteed to be far more involved than he was last week (2 targets, 1 catch, 11 yards) and could end the night as the team leader in targets. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,800.

*RB James Cook, QB Josh Allen, K Tyler Bass: Bills “onslaught” stack that would, in all likelihood, give you exposure to every point scored by Buffalo tonight. I’d recommend throwing in at least one, possibly two, more Bills players with this stack in hopes that this ends up being a blowout win for the road team. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,900.

*WR Jaylen Waddle, QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB James Cook: I’m tempted to say fade Tyreek in any CPTN Waddle lineup, but there is a world where both could be optimal plays with Waddle also being the optimal captain. Waddle, of course, doesn’t pop with ceiling performances as often as Hill, but we know he has 30+ DKFP upside in the tank. If Tyreek just has an “okay” game, Waddle’s optimal captain chances will soar. Stack with Tua and bring it back with James Cook for some in-game correlation. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,233.

*QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle: Tua also didn’t get a spotlight today but his ceiling games do tend to both come at home and in the early portion of a new season. Tyreek and Waddle are clearly the top two stack candidates in any CPTN Tua lineup. Other Dolphins pass catchers to mix in with CPTN Tua lineups (in order of preference): RB De’Von Achane (if active), WR Braxton Berrios, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Durham Smythe, RB Jaylen Wright, RB Jeff Wilson Jr., TE Julian Hill. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,233.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr. >OR< RB Jaylen Wright (**IF** Achane is out) + Any combo of studs: Both of the healthy backup Dolphins RBs would become viable captain options if Achane is either ruled out or very limited. With their dirt-cheap captain salaries, you could easily fit four stud plays into the FLEX.

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Keon Coleman MORE than 3.5 Receptions

Tua Tagovailoa MORE than 5.5 Rush Yards

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!