Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top Pick’Em Offers 10/17/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100

• Underdog DFS - Up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash 

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints | 37.0 O/U

Broncos: 19.8 Implied Points | Saints: 17.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [NO] WR Chris Olave - OUT, [NO] WR Rashid Shaheed - OUT, [NO] QB Derek Carr - Doubtful, [NO] TE Taysom Hill - Doubtful, [DEN] WR Josh Reynolds - OUT/IR, [DEN] RB Tyler Badie - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Broncos - 23, Saints - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Broncos, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Saints, 5-1 Broncos

Players & Stacks to Consider

Top Captains & Core Flex Plays

RB Alvin Kamara: The Saints’ offense is down their QB1, WR1, WR2, and gadget guy (TE/RB/QB) Taysom Hill. So, suffice it to say that Kamara should continue to be a focal point of the offense. He has seen at least 19 opportunities (rushes + targets) in every game this season and received eight targets from rookie QB Spencer Rattler in his NFL debut last week. The Broncos defense has been stout (7th in overall DVOA), but they have still surrendered a middling 22.8 FPPG to RBs this season. Kamara has logged an 84% snap% L4Games, so he should rarely come off the field while handling nearly all of the RB touches. He’s a pretty clear captain option in what is expected to be a low-scoring Thursday Night Football affair.

QB Bo Nix: Nix heads into week seven having scored at least 19.34 DKFP in three of his last four games with the lone exception coming against a tough Jets secondary back in week four. He is still a very raw NFL passer who ranks 29th among QBs averaging just 5.5 YPA, but Nix has made an impact with his legs, averaging 30.0 rush YPG with three rushing TDs on the season. The Saints’ pass defense has also allowed four of the last five QBs they’ve faced to throw for at least 293 yards so there is some hope that Nix can have a decent night through the air.

RB Javonte Williams: The Saints’ run defense has been highly suspect lately, allowing 193.0 YPG and 35.8 FPPG to RBs over their last four games. Javonte Williams has been the lead RB, playing right around 60% of snaps this season. The production hasn’t been great, but in a match-up where the Broncos could very well be playing with a lead for most/all of the game, Williams could sniff 20 touches and perhaps put up his best DFS score of the season.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain Options

WR Courtland Sutton: Sutton’s 41.5% AirYard% ranks 8th in the entire NFL, and while the Broncos haven’t been regulars in the red zone, Sutton has dominated targets in that area of the field with a massive 50% RedZone Target%. Sutton has run 55% of his routes on the left perimeter, which is the side of the field that top Saints CB Marshon Lattimore has covered on 95% of plays. Nonetheless, Sutton will still see his fair share of routes outside of Lattimore’s coverage and he has been Bo Nix’s favorite target, particularly when the Broncos have ventured closer to the endzone.

QB Spencer Rattler: A rookie QB making his second career start against a top-10 defense without his top two WRs isn’t typically going to scream “prime DFS play” but there is still some hope for Rattler tonight. He looked good at times versus the Bucs last week and also showed some mobility, taking four rush attempts for 27 yards. The Broncos will also be without arguably the best CB in the NFL, Pat Surtain II (concussion/out), which will bode well for this makeshift Saints passing attack. Being at home is also a plus for Rattler and the most likely game flow has the Saints playing from behind, which would lead to a Rattler pass-heavy game script. It’s unlikely that Rattler ends the night as the optimal captain play but he should provide one of the higher floors in this game and sets up as a perfectly fine FLEX play.

WR Bub Means: WR Chris Olave (concussion/out) played just two snaps before exiting last week’s game. Meanwhile, WR Rashid Shaheed (knee/out) played most of the game, with an 81% snap%, but will, of course, miss tonight’s contest and potentially a few more since he is slated to undergo meniscus surgery. So, even with Shaheed playing most of week six’s game, Bub Means stepped in and played 71% of the snaps. He would go on to catch 5-of-8 targets for 45 yards and was on the receiving end of QB Spencer Rattler’s first career TD pass. Means could very well operate as the Saints’ de facto WR1 this evening and, as mentioned, there is no Pat Surtain II to worry about. At just $4,000, Means is a highly intriguing FLEX/contrarian captain play.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

K Will Lutz / K Blake Grupe: Would anyone be surprised if this game turned into a field goal fest? I know I wouldn’t. Lutz would set up as the safer/preferred kicker while Grupe should be the lower-owned leverage kicker play. No weather issues in a domed stadium.

Saints D/ST / Broncos D/ST: Both defenses set up well with a rookie QB starting on each side. Even without Surtain available, the Broncos are the preferred D/ST play. They’re an aggressive defense that has blitzed on an NFL-high 41.8% of QB dropbacks and are second in the NFL with 22 sacks. Denver has also allowed a score on just 28.6% of opponent drives (ranks 4th in NFL). The Saints, on the other hand, have been more opportunistic in the turnover column, ranking 5th in the NFL with a turnover forced on 18.2% of opponent drives.

WR Devaughn Vele: Vele is a seventh-round rookie who had an impactful game back in week one where he caught 8-of-8 targets (albeit for just 39 yards). Since then, despite being in mostly good health, Vele had been a healthy scratch for most games. However, with Josh Reynolds (finger) going on the IR and other Broncos WRs not named Courtland Sutton failing to make much of an impact, Vele got the green light to play in week six. He went on to log a 62% snap% and caught 4-of-6 targets for a team-high 78 yards against the Chargers. Vele figures to be very involved again and he should operate as the Broncos’ primary slot receiver (82% SlotRoute%).

WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.: There seems to be no shortage of cheap WRs to choose from in this showdown and Cedrick Wilson Jr. should find himself in on the majority of offensive plays today. Wilson, who is in his sixth NFL season, is easily the most experienced veteran among the current group of Saints WRs. While he hasn’t had many big games as a pro, Wilson should see a fair amount of targets and he likely goes somewhat underowned as the other stopgap Saints WRs make for more exciting DFS options.

WR Troy Franklin: Franklin played a season-high 65% of snaps last week (previous season-high was 31%) and he made an impact, catching 2-of-3 targets for 31 yards and a TD while also taking one rush attempt for five yards. There’s no guarantee he will play the majority of snaps again, but if the Broncos are looking for a spark, it would make sense for Franklin to see more playing time as he has some well-established rapport with QB Bo Nix from their collegiate playing days at Oregon. Franklin may also draw an enticing match-up if he runs most of his routes on the right perimeter. That’s where Saints CB Paulson Adebo has played 96% of his snaps and New Orleans has allowed THE most FPPG to right perimeter WRs.

TE Foster Moreau: It’s not a stretch to assume that the Saints’ TEs could see more target volume with Olave or Shaheed out of the picture. Moreau is much cheaper than his fellow TE Juwan Johnson, and though Moreau may not be as good of a pass catcher as Johnson, he did connect with QB Spencer Rattler on a big 41-yard catch-and-run last week.

WR Mason Tipton: Yet another value WR who should be on the field plenty tonight. Tipton played a season-high 41% snap% last week and, again, that was with Shaheed playing 81% of the snaps. Tipton has seen his aDOT rapidly increase in recent weeks, now up to 12.5 yards. So he is being looked as on deeper throws down the field and, at $1,600, he doesn’t need to do much to land in the optimal lineup.

TE Lucas Krull: Krull was a healthy scratch for the first four games of the season but he made his season debut in week five and, most recently in week six, he led all Broncos TEs with a 60% snap%. Meanwhile, TE Greg Dulcich has been the healthy scratch the last two weeks. Fellow Broncos TEs Adam Trautman (31% snap% Wk6) and Nate Adkins (27% snap% Wk6) have not made much of an offensive impact so perhaps Denver is looking to get a spark out of Krull for the foreseeable future.

RB Audric Estime: Estime, a talented rookie out of Notre Dame, has been sidelined for much of this season with a hamstring injury. He has played just a handful of snaps between week one and week six appearances, though he has taken his four carries for a productive 27 yards (6.8 YPC). That’s a microscopic sample size but if Javonte Williams (3.6 YPC) and Jaleel McLaughlin (3.2 YPC) continue to be inefficient with their carries, don’t be surprised if Estime eats into their respective workloads. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if Estime, who is the biggest body among the three Broncos RBs, happens to see goal-line work. 5-to-10 touches and a fall-into-the-endzone TD could be all it takes for Estime to be an optimal play at his $400 DK showdown salary.

Stack Concepts

Note: [*Player Name] indicates captain selection.

*RB Alvin Kamara, QB Bo Nix, WR Devaughn Vele: Given all of the value options in this game, I’d be surprised if Kamara doesn’t run away in captain ownership. Regardless, he’s going to be the focal point of this offense that is missing its two primary WRs. Run him out at captain with confidence and bring it back with a Broncos QB/WR stack with Nix and Vele. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,166.

*QB Bo Nix, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Troy Franklin: Standard CPTN Nix double-stack. No, it’s not exciting, but if Nix ends up as the optimal captain, he probably brings a couple of his receivers along with him. Other Broncos pass catchers to mix into CPTN Nix stacks (in order of preference): WR Devaughn Vele, WR Lil-Jordan Humphrey, RB Javonte Williams, TE Lucas Krull, RB Jaleel McLaughlin, WR Marvin Mims Jr. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,366.

*RB Javonte Williams, Broncos D/ST, RB Alvin Kamara: RBs have been running wild on the Saints' defense so we’ll see if Williams can put up a quality DFS score as he should once again lead the Broncos backfield in touches. We’ll work some correlation in by stacking the DEN D/ST with Williams and run-it-back with Kamara on the other side. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $6,733.

*WR Courtland Sutton, QB Bo Nix, RB Javonte Williams: Broncos-heavy stack that could give you exposure to every TD scored by Denver tonight. We’ll want Kamara or a couple of cheap Saints receivers as bring-back plays to go along with this stack but if you believe the Broncos have success through the air AND on the ground tonight, then this Sutton/Nix/Williams stack makes plenty of sense. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $5,200.

*QB Spencer Rattler, WR Bub Means, WR Mason Tipton: Standard CPTN Rattler double-stack. This particular stack features a trio of rookies, so the risk is quite high, but Rattler has to throw it to someone out there tonight, and, as mentioned a couple of times, there is no Pat Surtain II available to essentially lock down one-half of the field. Other Saints pass catchers to mix into CPTN Rattler stacks (in order of preference): RB Alvin Kamara, TE Juwan Johnson, WR Cedric Wilson Jr., TE Foster Moreau. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $10,200 (!).

*WR Bub Means, QB Spencer Rattler, RB Alvin Kamara: Means is possibly the temporary WR1 for the Saints, though he is not priced as such. We’ll of course want to pair him with Rattler in the FLEX and, given Means’ $4,000 salary ($6,000 CPTN salary), we can easily slot in Kamara to complete a Saints-heavy stack. Average remaining salary per player with this stack: $7,666.

TNF Touchdown Calls Contest

Retweet the TD calls below for your chance to win a free month of a LineStar premium subscription!

PrizePicks Primetime Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for this game over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but if it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Devaughn Vele MORE than 33.5 Receiving Yards

Bub Means MORE than 35.5 Receiving Yards

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s insanely easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Primetime Preview” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!